What's Minimum Contract Le'Veon Needs to Be Right?

[flippy]

I'm glad we can move on from this whole ordeal, but I got to wondering, what does Bell need at a minimum in his next contract to declare victory?

Over the last 2 seasons, Bell has made $12m. Had he signed the Steelers offer in 2017, he would have made $18m more, or $30m, and have roughly $12m coming next 2 seasons and been able to get another big contract at 28.

If Bell signed the long term agreement this year, he would have made about $29m over the last 2 years, with about $12m coming the following 2 seasons and a chance to renegotiate a long term deal at 29.

To break even with the 2018 offer from the Steelers, Bell needs to get $23m x 3 over the next 3 years. But here's where the real issue for Bell's ability to maximize his money. If he does a 5 year deal, he'll be 32 when his contract ends now. Who in their right mind would do a big deal with any RB post 30? No one. So Bell is effectively giving up the biggest deal he could have gotten in his next contract. The big issue isn't giving up $14.5m this year. It's Bell setting himself up for a contract that expires when he's in his 30s and missing a huge deal. The last offer was 70m. If it grew by 20% when his contract was coming up (assuming he's negotiating hard and being greedy, that would be an $84m-$100m deal at 28 or 29 vs negotiating a first big deal at 27 and then being washed up before he gets to the next big deal.

So not only does Bell have to get to $23m/yr to break even, he should be looking for a bump (even the Steelers offer went up from 2017 to 201, plus he's got to figure out how he can make up for that next $84-$100m deal he's gonna miss because of age.

Bottom line, Bell could get $30m/yr guaranteed as the top paid player in the league and it wouldn't be enough to make up on what he'll miss on the next contract.

If you are Bell or his agent, what would you prefer:

1. $66m + new contract at 28 (took 2017 deal from Steelers) - estimate $66m + $84m = $150m
2. $69m + new contract at 29 (took 2018 deal from Steelers) - estimate $69m + $100m = $169m
3. $12m + first 4 years of new contract + next contract at 31 - estimate $12m + $68m = $80m + new contract at 31 (assuming he got the $17m/yr he alleged wanted last year, he'd have to get a $89m in guaranteed money after 31)

I know there's looks of variables and these are just guesstimates, but the numbers look awful for Le'Veon when you consider the next contract that he likely won't get.

[Mr.wizard]

I'm glad we can move on from this whole ordeal, but I got to wondering, what does Bell need at a minimum in his next contract to declare victory?

Over the last 2 seasons, Bell has made $12m. Had he signed the Steelers offer in 2017, he would have made $18m more, or $30m, and have roughly $12m coming next 2 seasons and been able to get another big contract at 28.

If Bell signed the long term agreement this year, he would have made about $29m over the last 2 years, with about $12m coming the following 2 seasons and a chance to renegotiate a long term deal at 29.

To break even with the 2018 offer from the Steelers, Bell needs to get $23m x 3 over the next 3 years. But here's where the real issue for Bell's ability to maximize his money. If he does a 5 year deal, he'll be 32 when his contract ends now. Who in their right mind would do a big deal with any RB post 30? No one. So Bell is effectively giving up the biggest deal he could have gotten in his next contract. The big issue isn't giving up $14.5m this year. It's Bell setting himself up for a contract that expires when he's in his 30s and missing a huge deal. The last offer was 70m. If it grew by 20% when his contract was coming up (assuming he's negotiating hard and being greedy, that would be an $84m-$100m deal at 28 or 29 vs negotiating a first big deal at 27 and then being washed up before he gets to the next big deal.

So not only does Bell have to get to $23m/yr to break even, he should be looking for a bump (even the Steelers offer went up from 2017 to 201, plus he's got to figure out how he can make up for that next $84-$100m deal he's gonna miss because of age.

Bottom line, Bell could get $30m/yr guaranteed as the top paid player in the league and it wouldn't be enough to make up on what he'll miss on the next contract.

If you are Bell or his agent, what would you prefer:

1. $66m + new contract at 28 (took 2017 deal from Steelers) - estimate $66m + $84m = $150m
2. $69m + new contract at 29 (took 2018 deal from Steelers) - estimate $69m + $100m = $169m
3. $12m + first 4 years of new contract + next contract at 31 - estimate $12m + $68m = $80m + new contract at 31 (assuming he got the $17m/yr he alleged wanted last year, he'd have to get a $89m in guaranteed money after 31)

I know there's looks of variables and these are just guesstimates, but the numbers look awful for Le'Veon when you consider the next contract that he likely won't get.

Depends on what his goal is. Everyone is trying to paint this as him wanting to get some astronomical contract but i think it had more to do with the franchise tag and him being able to control his rights.

[Sword]

He was in the weed and not in football shape ...he could not sign or else he would have sunk like the titanic.....
look he was in Miami doing it up in the clubs...... what do you think he was doing...look at his past.....

[flippy]

Depends on what his goal is. Everyone is trying to paint this as him wanting to get some astronomical contract but i think it had more to do with the franchise tag and him being able to control his rights.

I don't believe this is true. Bell said he wanted to be a Steeler for life. Also said he wanted $40m guaranteed and Steelers offered $17m. It did come down to the numbers for Bell.

Never did Bell or his agent rail against the system, FA, the franchise tag, etc. That's a whole other ball of wax where I could see players caring. The whole idea of gaining exclusive rights to a player through a draft is insane. Could you imagine going to college and when you graduate and are ready to enter the working world, some random company drafts you and you have to work out a deal to work for them or no one else. That would be insane. What if you got drafted by KMart. You went to Harvard, you got your MBA, you graduate at the top of your class, etc. and a dying company decides they want you so they draft you and you are forced to work at Kmart. You get no choice.

That would suck. Mendy compared the NFL draft to a slave mart and got criticized for it, but there was some truth to what he was saying, even though people didn't want to hear it. Who does the Players Association really work for? Players have no choice in this matter. They are completely controlled by the team and the system. It's insanely unfair and slanted toward the league. Guys should be able to come out of college and interview and tryout with every team they want. They could avoid the teams they don't want. And they should be allowed to sign with anyone.

Even mid season if a player is unhappy, they should have the freedom to leave their current employer and go work for someone else who they believe in or is willing to pay them more, etc. At any time, players should be in control and they aren't. I can see the appeal of Le'Veon's agent to some players. But I also see his agent using all of this as a marketing ploy to attract players, because I don't see him out there fighting the system. I see him working within the system and trying to get Bell the money he wants. And I'm not even sure the 2 of them are that effective. They haven't handled the media well. They haven't talked about the bigger picture or something beyond LB's contract. Everyone's turned against them from coaches to players to fans.

You could argue that LB had the opportunity to tell a story that painted him as the good guy. The Robin Hood of players, fighting for everyone else. But that's not what we saw. Possibly to his credit, he's the one player that gave up $14.5m this year and turned down 2 big contracts from the Steelers. So he put his money where his mouth is. So maybe he had some positive intentions, but it came across he wanted $40m and the Steelers offered $17m. Nothing more or less. Anything else is us trying to give meaning to this thing.

And long term, it seems he's losing in the money department, he made no point, so what did he get?

[Eich]

I don't believe this is true. Bell said he wanted to be a Steeler for life. Also said he wanted $40m guaranteed and Steelers offered $17m. It did come down to the numbers for Bell.

Never did Bell or his agent rail against the system, FA, the franchise tag, etc. That's a whole other ball of wax where I could see players caring. The whole idea of gaining exclusive rights to a player through a draft is insane. Could you imagine going to college and when you graduate and are ready to enter the working world, some random company drafts you and you have to work out a deal to work for them or no one else. That would be insane. What if you got drafted by KMart. You went to Harvard, you got your MBA, you graduate at the top of your class, etc. and a dying company decides they want you so they draft you and you are forced to work at Kmart. You get no choice.

That would suck. Mendy compared the NFL draft to a slave mart and got criticized for it, but there was some truth to what he was saying, even though people didn't want to hear it. Who does the Players Association really work for? Players have no choice in this matter. They are completely controlled by the team and the system. It's insanely unfair and slanted toward the league. Guys should be able to come out of college and interview and tryout with every team they want. They could avoid the teams they don't want. And they should be allowed to sign with anyone.

Even mid season if a player is unhappy, they should have the freedom to leave their current employer and go work for someone else who they believe in or is willing to pay them more, etc. At any time, players should be in control and they aren't. I can see the appeal of Le'Veon's agent to some players. But I also see his agent using all of this as a marketing ploy to attract players, because I don't see him out there fighting the system. I see him working within the system and trying to get Bell the money he wants. And I'm not even sure the 2 of them are that effective. They haven't handled the media well. They haven't talked about the bigger picture or something beyond LB's contract. Everyone's turned against them from coaches to players to fans.

I get your point. But can you imagine how NON-competitive some teams would be if players could sign anywhere they wanted? That would be a disaster of epic proportions. Many NFL teams would cease to exist and the league's ability to make these guys filthy rich across all 32 teams would go away. Team sports are just not apples-to-apples with corporate America.

Also, I would have gladly worked for K-Mart coming out of engineering school if they were paying me the same as say, Amazon and eventually making me just as crazy wealthy as if I was a top guy in Amazon.

[The Man of Steel]

After the way Bell completely blew off that $14.5 million I figure that one day he’ll just be another one of those former NFL players who went broke within 2 years of retirement anyhow.

[RuthlessBurgher]

But can you imagine how NON-competitive some teams would be if players could sign anywhere they wanted?

Yeah, I could imagine it. It's called the NBA. The superstars dictate that they want to create a few video-game-like super-teams, so only a handful of teams are competitive and the rest of the league is irrelevant.

[flippy]

I get your point. But can you imagine how NON-competitive some teams would be if players could sign anywhere they wanted? That would be a disaster of epic proportions. Many NFL teams would cease to exist and the league's ability to make these guys filthy rich across all 32 teams would go away. Team sports are just not apples-to-apples with corporate America.

Also, I would have gladly worked for K-Mart coming out of engineering school if they were paying me the same as say, Amazon and eventually making me just as crazy wealthy as if I was a top guy in Amazon.

I get that too. It's different, but if teams had to compete like it was an open market, I think some would figure out how to be successful and others would struggle just like they do now. I get that the NFL's goal is to create competitive matchups for the broader benefit of the league and players ultimately make out as part of being in the league. And there's probably good in the Players Association vs individual kids having to come in and handle $M contracts on their own right out of college at a young age.

And I guess I didn't think thru the KMart scenario. On one hand if they're paying me the same as the other companies, who cares to some degree. But I wouldn't want to be forced to move to a city I don't like and have no choice in the matter. What if you grow up in NY and LA and have to go work in KC or GreenBay. Nothing wrong with any of those places, but different people would choose to rank these cities livability for them differently based on personal preferences.

As a ridiculous example, I was reading about Middle Eastern basketball a while back. They pay a lot for good college players that don't make it in the NBA. But guys that have done it have said it's a nightmare living in places like Iran/Iraq where they aren't comfortable. I know NFL cities aren't that extreme and the basketball players have a choice, but to someone from NYC, playing in Pittsburgh, KC, etc. could feel like being sent to Iran/Iraq.

[Buzz]

I truly don't think Bell thought the situation out. He wanted more than the Steelers offered. Fine. But he failed to take a realistic view of his future options. Barring some crazy owner throwing stupid money at him (which you can never rule out), Bell is not going to come out ahead by sitting out this year.

As far as it being mainly about controlling his own rights? Bull. From the beginning, he made it clear it was about the money. "I'ma need 15 (mil) a year, and they know this" ... check that, "I'ma need 17 mil a year" ... wait, "I'ma need $40 mil guaranteed." He didn't get what he wanted, so he decided, "Screw the Steelers, I'll just stay away for awhile." When he didn't show up at the start of the season, I don't think he was planning to sit out the whole year. But things that were out of his control went a different way than he'd imagined. Instead of having a team begging him to come back, desperate because they missed his talent, the Steelers were like, "Don't really need ya, bro'." He screwed up big time and is left with nothing to show for 2018. $14.5 million, properly managed, could've taken care of Bell and his family for a long time. As it is, he'd better hope he doesn't blow out a knee on his jet ski, or he'll really look like a fool.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I think that he simply wants a cheque for an astronomical sum before he steps foot on a field again. Apparently $14.5M is short of that number.

[Steel Maniac]

I'm glad we can move on from this whole ordeal, but I got to wondering, what does Bell need at a minimum in his next contract to declare victory?

Over the last 2 seasons, Bell has made $12m. Had he signed the Steelers offer in 2017, he would have made $18m more, or $30m, and have roughly $12m coming next 2 seasons and been able to get another big contract at 28.

If Bell signed the long term agreement this year, he would have made about $29m over the last 2 years, with about $12m coming the following 2 seasons and a chance to renegotiate a long term deal at 29.

To break even with the 2018 offer from the Steelers, Bell needs to get $23m x 3 over the next 3 years. But here's where the real issue for Bell's ability to maximize his money. If he does a 5 year deal, he'll be 32 when his contract ends now. Who in their right mind would do a big deal with any RB post 30? No one. So Bell is effectively giving up the biggest deal he could have gotten in his next contract. The big issue isn't giving up $14.5m this year. It's Bell setting himself up for a contract that expires when he's in his 30s and missing a huge deal. The last offer was 70m. If it grew by 20% when his contract was coming up (assuming he's negotiating hard and being greedy, that would be an $84m-$100m deal at 28 or 29 vs negotiating a first big deal at 27 and then being washed up before he gets to the next big deal.

So not only does Bell have to get to $23m/yr to break even, he should be looking for a bump (even the Steelers offer went up from 2017 to 201, plus he's got to figure out how he can make up for that next $84-$100m deal he's gonna miss because of age.

Bottom line, Bell could get $30m/yr guaranteed as the top paid player in the league and it wouldn't be enough to make up on what he'll miss on the next contract.

If you are Bell or his agent, what would you prefer:

1. $66m + new contract at 28 (took 2017 deal from Steelers) - estimate $66m + $84m = $150m
2. $69m + new contract at 29 (took 2018 deal from Steelers) - estimate $69m + $100m = $169m
3. $12m + first 4 years of new contract + next contract at 31 - estimate $12m + $68m = $80m + new contract at 31 (assuming he got the $17m/yr he alleged wanted last year, he'd have to get a $89m in guaranteed money after 31)

I know there's looks of variables and these are just guesstimates, but the numbers look awful for Le'Veon when you consider the next contract that he likely won't get.

Why do we care?

[flippy]

Why do we care?

On one hand, we want other teams to overspend on RBs. On the other, we don't want the market to blow up for Conner so we can keep him.

I dunno. Why do we care about anything?

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

On one hand, we want other teams to overspend on RBs. On the other, we don't want the market to blow up for Conner so we can keep him.

I dunno. Why do we care about anything?

Whatever happens with Bell will not effect Conner. Bell is a generational talent who transcends the RB position.

[Mr.wizard]

I don't believe this is true. Bell said he wanted to be a Steeler for life. Also said he wanted $40m guaranteed and Steelers offered $17m. It did come down to the numbers for Bell.

Never did Bell or his agent rail against the system, FA, the franchise tag, etc. That's a whole other ball of wax where I could see players caring. The whole idea of gaining exclusive rights to a player through a draft is insane. Could you imagine going to college and when you graduate and are ready to enter the working world, some random company drafts you and you have to work out a deal to work for them or no one else. That would be insane. What if you got drafted by KMart. You went to Harvard, you got your MBA, you graduate at the top of your class, etc. and a dying company decides they want you so they draft you and you are forced to work at Kmart. You get no choice.

That would suck. Mendy compared the NFL draft to a slave mart and got criticized for it, but there was some truth to what he was saying, even though people didn't want to hear it. Who does the Players Association really work for? Players have no choice in this matter. They are completely controlled by the team and the system. It's insanely unfair and slanted toward the league. Guys should be able to come out of college and interview and tryout with every team they want. They could avoid the teams they don't want. And they should be allowed to sign with anyone.

Even mid season if a player is unhappy, they should have the freedom to leave their current employer and go work for someone else who they believe in or is willing to pay them more, etc. At any time, players should be in control and they aren't. I can see the appeal of Le'Veon's agent to some players. But I also see his agent using all of this as a marketing ploy to attract players, because I don't see him out there fighting the system. I see him working within the system and trying to get Bell the money he wants. And I'm not even sure the 2 of them are that effective. They haven't handled the media well. They haven't talked about the bigger picture or something beyond LB's contract. Everyone's turned against them from coaches to players to fans.

You could argue that LB had the opportunity to tell a story that painted him as the good guy. The Robin Hood of players, fighting for everyone else. But that's not what we saw. Possibly to his credit, he's the one player that gave up $14.5m this year and turned down 2 big contracts from the Steelers. So he put his money where his mouth is. So maybe he had some positive intentions, but it came across he wanted $40m and the Steelers offered $17m. Nothing more or less. Anything else is us trying to give meaning to this thing.

And long term, it seems he's losing in the money department, he made no point, so what did he get?

Simply not true Bell made the statement before the offseason even started that he would contemplate retiring if he had to play on the tag again. If it was only about the money or trying to screw the steelers over he could have easily signed the tag and faked an injury. Also Bell and his agent exposed the loophole in the tag that allows Bell to sit out the entire season and still stay eligible for free agency. Bell didn't even want to be traded becausethat would mean he couldn't control where he would go and he would still be under the tag contract.

[pittpete]

Nobody wanted Bell in a trade.
That had to hurt his feelings bigtime.
Bells was/is/will always be a douche to most Steelers fans.
Move on already.