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Been busy and haven't had time to post recently, but I've been trying to keep up. Hope my Steeler brethren are doing great these days!!!!
Leading up to the draft I was thinking a lot about the first round pick. Who will it be? And I thought maybe we should review 1st round picks during the Tomlin era to get some insight.
07 - Timmy
08 - Mendy
09 - Ziggy
10 - Pouncey
11 - Cam
12 - DD
13 - JJ
14 - Shazier
15 - Bud
16 - Artie
17 - TJ
When I really think about that list, I'm not really that impressed. Shazier was potentially all world. Cam is a stud. Pouncey and DD are above average. TJ has good long term potential. The rest are meh. And I think I'm being generous.
We've got about a 50% chance of our first rounder being a solid contributor. Maybe a 25% chance of a player being a stud. And a 10% chance of them being a star.
When I really think about that, I think we may be better off going for the home run in round 1.
If you look at 2nd round picks in the Tomin era, I think we actually did better in that round with Bell, Juju, Davis, Tuitt, Gilbert, Woodley, Adams, and Worilds.
Looking at rounds 3 and beyond, it's a total crap shoot and odds are we'll get nothing much better than bodies. Based on history, we'll probably find one reliable starter out of the rest of these picks.
What does this mean? I dunno. But it feels like we should go for higher risk/reward players in every round because most of these guys aren't going to pan out. It's kinda depressing when you really think about it. All the hope we put into every Steeler draft pick. Hanging on to every last thing that they do. Blindly seeing the potential and overlooking the drawbacks. Hoping they'll all be diamonds in the rough. But for the most part, they're the rough.
Here's another way to think about this. Would we be any better or worse a team if we didn't even participate in the 2015 draft for example? I was just looking for an example of a draft that might not have mattered and 2015 jumps off the page. Not arguing we haven't gotten any contributions from that class, but is any player truly a game changer that couldn't be replaced with some UDFA?
For years when we were consistently getting All Pros in round 1, I felt like the draft mattered more. But now I'm changing my thinking a bit.
Why not trade any and all picks to move up in round 1 to get a sure star? Maybe trade every pick if we have to move up and grab Tremaine Edmunds, Bradley Chubb, or Sanquon Barkley and call it a weekend.
I'd go with Edmunds personally. Kid's 19, a freak, and looks poised to be the center piece of someone's D for the next 10 years.
Any one know what we'd have to trade to get him? Why not trade everything but our #2 pick and then we get a nearly gauranteed stud plus probably hit on round 2. That would be 10x better than 2015.
And then we clean up on the UDFA market, giving us a couple day head start on the top guys left.
Leading up to the draft I was thinking a lot about the first round pick. Who will it be? And I thought maybe we should review 1st round picks during the Tomlin era to get some insight.
07 - Timmy
08 - Mendy
09 - Ziggy
10 - Pouncey
11 - Cam
12 - DD
13 - JJ
14 - Shazier
15 - Bud
16 - Artie
17 - TJ
When I really think about that list, I'm not really that impressed. Shazier was potentially all world. Cam is a stud. Pouncey and DD are above average. TJ has good long term potential. The rest are meh. And I think I'm being generous.
We've got about a 50% chance of our first rounder being a solid contributor. Maybe a 25% chance of a player being a stud. And a 10% chance of them being a star.
When I really think about that, I think we may be better off going for the home run in round 1.
If you look at 2nd round picks in the Tomin era, I think we actually did better in that round with Bell, Juju, Davis, Tuitt, Gilbert, Woodley, Adams, and Worilds.
Looking at rounds 3 and beyond, it's a total crap shoot and odds are we'll get nothing much better than bodies. Based on history, we'll probably find one reliable starter out of the rest of these picks.
What does this mean? I dunno. But it feels like we should go for higher risk/reward players in every round because most of these guys aren't going to pan out. It's kinda depressing when you really think about it. All the hope we put into every Steeler draft pick. Hanging on to every last thing that they do. Blindly seeing the potential and overlooking the drawbacks. Hoping they'll all be diamonds in the rough. But for the most part, they're the rough.
Here's another way to think about this. Would we be any better or worse a team if we didn't even participate in the 2015 draft for example? I was just looking for an example of a draft that might not have mattered and 2015 jumps off the page. Not arguing we haven't gotten any contributions from that class, but is any player truly a game changer that couldn't be replaced with some UDFA?
For years when we were consistently getting All Pros in round 1, I felt like the draft mattered more. But now I'm changing my thinking a bit.
Why not trade any and all picks to move up in round 1 to get a sure star? Maybe trade every pick if we have to move up and grab Tremaine Edmunds, Bradley Chubb, or Sanquon Barkley and call it a weekend.
I'd go with Edmunds personally. Kid's 19, a freak, and looks poised to be the center piece of someone's D for the next 10 years.
Any one know what we'd have to trade to get him? Why not trade everything but our #2 pick and then we get a nearly gauranteed stud plus probably hit on round 2. That would be 10x better than 2015.
And then we clean up on the UDFA market, giving us a couple day head start on the top guys left.
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