Let Me Repeat the Shazier Effect

[Ernie]

Yea I've heard of the tip drill. We used to do it in practice all the time when I was coaching and playing. You can "Prepare" for it all you want... doesn't mean the ball is any more or less likely to shoot down to the turf after being deflected off of a player's helmet, elbow etc... as to shoot up in the air... sideways... etc.

And if you've done the "Tip" drill as I have dizz (of course there are variations of the drill)...the lead man in the drill's job is to tip the ball up in the air for the guy behind him. In a ball game those defenders are trying to catch a ball thrown to their area, or knock it away... there's usually no "Volleyball" affect like the tip drill calls for.

I will agree, though... gotta give credit to the defense for deflecting a few of those balls..

[Mr.wizard]

I'm not going to defend the players for not executing, but as much or more blame for this loss has to go on the Steelers' coaches. As I rewatch the game, it's obvious our defensive game-plan, in-game adjustments and decisions, and player preparation were well below the line. Sadly, we were badly out-coached by the Jags -- and we had a week longer to prepare than they did!

Not trying to sound like a jerk, but how do you know what their game plan was, what their preparation was, and the in-game adjustments made? Not to mention we already knew what type of offense they where going to run and who was going to get the ball. We also didn't play any different defensive schemes than we are used to, so really no excuse for blown assignments. I also don't think the Jags did anything spectacular as far as coaching is concerned, they just came out ground and pound like they always do. It really just came down to our MLB's ability to stop the run and they couldn't do it.

[JUST-PLAIN-NASTY]

There's a video tidbit of a young Coach Cowher standing nose to nose with the great Greg Lloyd telling him....

"Rush the Passer!"

Take it from There.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Losing Ryan Shazier late in the season and trying to replace him with Sean Spence off his couch (because he was on our roster a few years ago) is the defensive equivalent of losing Ben Roethlisberger late in the season and trying to replace him with, say, Bruce Gradkowski off his couch (because he was on our roster a few years ago).

A very similar degree of leadership and talent would have been lost and replaced on the fly with a guy who hadn't been on anyone's team this year and hadn't been in any of our team's practices or meetings for multiple seasons.

Actually, if you think about it, if we lost our offensive leader in Ben instead, we'd at least have other superstar types on offense like Brown and Bell to help fill in the gaps and make things easier for Ben's replacement. On defense, we do not have any of those superstar types. In fact, you might instead have guys on defense trying too hard to make up for the loss of a player like Ryan, so some players who you expect to be in one gap are in another gap instead and the integrity of the defense overall gets compromised.

[Northern_Blitz]

Difference in the game Sunday.... 3 pts.

Edit: updated after JAGS game: the Steelers have allowed 28 pts per game since Shazier went down... >10 pts/gm more than before Shazier's injury. I don't know about you but that sounds like a lot.

I didn't read all of the thread, I agree that the effect is real and that the Steelers win the game against the Jags if they had a replacement that was at least NFL average. I think that he makes at least one play on 3rd down on one of their scoring drives. (I think that the Pats still beat us in the AFCC because until we slay the monster I will always assume it kills us.)

Aside:

BUT, I think that the methodology of saying that they gave up more points without him than with him isn't the right way to show it. After all they played the Pats when he was out and they always score a ton of points, right?

I think it would be better to look at points surrendered vs. expected points surrendered (maybe average points / game of the team they were playing against).

Without Shazier:
Against the Pats, we held them to ~1.5 points below their avg pts / game.
Against Houston, we held them to ~15 points below their average.
Against Balt, they scored ~13 points above their average.
Against Cle, they scored ~10 points above their average (and 6 points more than when we played them with 50)

That averages out to +1.6 points vs. the a team's average scoring without Shazier.

With Shazier:
Browns (1) scored +1.5
Vikings scored -15
Bears +6.5
Ravens(1) -15.5
Jags(1) +4 (average ppg was higher than I expected @ 26.1)
KC -13
Det -5.6
Colts +0.5
Titans -4
GB +8

That averages out to -3.2 points vs. the a team's average scoring with Shazier.

So, I think that Shazier was on average worth ~ 4.8 points...which means I just wasted a bunch of time because that's basically the same as 6 (didn't do the statistical analysis, but the numbers must basically agree including uncertainty).

Maybe not wasted because this shows that the fact that we played the Pats when he was out (and crappy teams when he was in) didn't skew the numbers too much to make the original comparison silly.

[Northern_Blitz]

Losing Ryan Shazier late in the season and trying to replace him with Sean Spence off his couch (because he was on our roster a few years ago) is the defensive equivalent of losing Ben Roethlisberger late in the season and trying to replace him with, say, Bruce Gradkowski off his couch (because he was on our roster a few years ago)....

This.

If Spence is the next man up, why the hell wasn't he on the team in the first place?

OR

If he didn't make the team in the first place, why the hell is he the next man up?

[Slapstick]

This.

If Spence is the next man up, why the hell wasn't he on the team in the first place?

OR

If he didn't make the team in the first place, why the hell is he the next man up?

Matakevitch was the next man up. He was injured in the same game as Shazier. He is having surgery on the injured shoulder this offseason, so he presumably wasn’t fit to line up on a regular basis.

[feltdizz]

This.

If Spence is the next man up, why the hell wasn't he on the team in the first place?

OR

If he didn't make the team in the first place, why the hell is he the next man up?

injuries.. and do you want someone who is slower but knows the system or someone who so faster who doesn’t know his assignement?

Not it sure if there is a correct answer to that question.

[Captain Lemming]

Shazier was a huge loss. No doubt. However, the coaching staff had 6 weeks to come up with a solution, and did nothing. You can't plug in a small, slow linebacker who was sitting on the couch and expect him to just replace Shazier.

Good coaches schematically adjust to the talent they have. They put players in different roles. Bud Dupree can't set the edge and can't rush the passer. Why not run a few packages with an extra lineman (or Harrison when he was here) and Dupree, Watt and Vince as the linebackers? The Steelers used a bit of a 4-3 look at times, then insisted on using 4 lbers after Shazier was hurt. Why? Butler and Tomlin both bear responsibility for this failure to adjust.

Because setting the edge and rushing the passer is not the primary role of our outside linebackers anymore.
We need Deon Sanders linebackers who cover short passes like they did so effectively against the Jagu.......nevermind.

[Captain Lemming]

This.

If Spence is the next man up, why the hell wasn't he on the team in the first place?

OR

If he didn't make the team in the first place, why the hell is he the next man up?

The full expression is:

"next man up.......from his couch"

[Captain Lemming]

Not trying to sound like a jerk.

Nobody thinks you are "trying" to sound like a jerk.......sometime it just happens. (just teasin man, didnt even read the rest.....got that far and couldn't resist the dig)

[Captain Lemming]

Yea I've heard of the tip drill.

Considering the name of our resident Pats fan........is that some of that military coaching the Pats do that Deebo talked about?

[williar]

That Shazier injury was devastating, to say the least. Watching the leader of your defense go down like that had to have a much residual effect. I am still shaking from the game and can't believe how we made it out of that stadium with a victory. That was the most impressive win of the season IMO. Not only did RS injury affect the landscape of the defense but the emotional toll it took was undeniable. Plus it was the most important part of our season as you try to get momentum building up for the playoffs.

With that said - I do believe we would have made it past the Jaguars in the playoffs and maybe would have toppled the pats in the regular season contest to give us that number one seed! IDK - maybe wishful thinking, but this defense looked so much better when he was in there. Not to mention RS could make a big play on a dime! If there was one to be had he usually was on the other end of it! Still smh...