Elo: Steelers 5th most likely team to win SB (5%), 3rd most likely in AFC

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

NE**, KC ranked ahead of us in the AFC.

Add Dallas and to the list from the NFC.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/

[papillon]

Perfect, not one of the favorites.

Pappy

[flippy]

Interesting they have us rated higher than Dallas but we're the #5 favorite because we don't have the first round bye.

I still think they have us a little high on the list because the NFC teams have an easier path to the SuperBowl because I don't think Dallas or Atlanta is playoff good. NE is a major roadblock for anyone in the AFC with their defense, QB experience, and a QB that doesn't turn the ball over.

I really think NE's biggest challenger is either NY or Seattle given their Ds. The Giants are better and played a much tougher schedule.

I do think you need a QB and a top D to have a shot. No way could Oakland rank higher than NY right now, so their logic is a little skewed in their rankings.

The only teams I would consider betting on at this point would be NE, Pit, NYG, Seattle, and GB. I'd probably eliminate GB because of their mediocre D. Pit is the longest shot of the remaining 4. NYG and Seattle Ds match up pretty well against NE. Both would need their QBs to kick it into another gear to compete, but we've seen them raise their level of play before so it's not impossible.

Given these rankings, I'd take a flyer on the Giants and then the Seahawks. If I was a betting man. But I'm not so I continue to go with the Steelers and I hope to see them shut out Miami, KC, NE, and then Dallas.

[buccoray61]

The games are played on the field,all this other stuff is just noise.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

so wait... lemme get this straight...

the 3 seed in the AFC, is 3rd most likely team from the AFC... behind the 1 and 2 seeds in the AFC...

[SteelerOfDeVille]

wait... does 5 overall mean they're also behind the 1 and 2 from the NFC...

[NorthCoast]

OK. admitted stat junkie and love this stuff. They run 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations with historical data. Kinda brute force method to an answer. The question is whether the method factors in such things as injuries to key players in the next game, recent rule changes, etc. But it's fun stuff to look at.

[Slapstick]

I also enjoy reading stats and probabilities...

In fact, right after Kyle Juszczyk scored his TD, the Ravens had an 83.6% chance of beating the Steelers...

The more you know...

[Eich]

I wonder what the probability was in 2005 heading into the playoffs as a 6th seed?!

I loved the way that team ATTACKED in the playoffs. I'd like to see that aggressive mentality again.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I also enjoy reading stats and probabilities...

In fact, right after Kyle Juszczyk scored his TD, the Ravens had an 83.6% chance of beating the Steelers...

funny... and i thought the steelers odds increased when he scored... gave us a lot of time and put the ball in Ben's hands.. prior to this TD i thought we were toast (that they'd score and leave us 20 seconds).

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

I nominate #23 and bud Dupree (?) for the Nobel Mensa prize: the former for intentionally missing the tackle, and the latter for standing around picking his nose instead of helping with the tackle, just so Juszszczsck could scamper in and score right away giving us more time for our own score.

[RuthlessBurgher]

I also enjoy reading stats and probabilities...

In fact, right after Kyle Juszczyk scored his TD, the Ravens had an 83.6% chance of beating the Steelers...

The more you know...

Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3720 to 1.

Never tell me the odds.

[BradshawsHairdresser]

The missed tackle worked out in this one situation, but it bit the Steelers in others. They have a ton of missed tackles on the season; that's something that has to be cleaned up if they're going to do well in the playoffs. Davis, Mitchell, Gay, Cockrell and Burns together have missed 76 tackles on the season. I'm not all that surprised at the rookies having a lot of whiffs, but it seems like way too many for the veteran players. Ryan Shazier by himself has missed 30 tackles on the season! I understand that, with his style of play, he's always going to have some misses, but he needs to cut the number way down.

Based on his comments, I'm sure MT will make tackling a point of emphasis this week.

[RuthlessBurgher]

The missed tackle worked out in this one situation, but it bit the Steelers in others. They have a ton of missed tackles on the season; that's something that has to be cleaned up if they're going to do well in the playoffs. Davis, Mitchell, Gay, Cockrell and Burns together have missed 76 tackles on the season. I'm not all that surprised at the rookies having a lot of whiffs, but it seems like way too many for the veteran players. Ryan Shazier by himself has missed 30 tackles on the season! I understand that, with his style of play, he's always going to have some misses, but he needs to cut the number way down.

Based on his comments, I'm sure MT will make tackling a point of emphasis this week.

Bring back those robot tackling dummies from Dartmouth that we were able to test out back in training camp!

[fordfixer]

Bring back those robot tackling dummies from Dartmouth that we were able to test out back in training camp!

Or we could get C3PO and R2D2