Longest stretch of futility in a quarter decade.

[bostonsteeler]

We're going through the longest stretch of futility in over 25 years.

Between 1991 and 2010, we went to an AFC championship game at least once every four years. Between 1991 and 2013 we never had a four year stretch where we didnt go to an AFCC.

Amazing, but Cowher managed to get to an AFCC every 2.5 years. Tomlin kept up that trend over his first five years too.

I don't hold much hope for this year, but perhaps next year a light goes on somewhere and they turn it around?

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

I'm sure someone can run stats, but I'd guess we have been an average team over that last period of time, in terms of playoff wins. Let's see: 1 playoff win in 6 years. 32 teams. Is this right: Each year in each conference 3 teams win the wild card games (including the bye team as a win), 2 teams win the next round, 1 team win the conference championship. That's 6 playoff games won every year in each conference, won among 4 teams. With 16 teams in each conference, that's 25% of NFL teams have a playoff win every year.

So every 4 years the average NFL team would win a playoff game. Did I do that math right?


If that's right, and we've only had one playoff win since 2010 (last year's wildcard), that would put us below what the average team in the league is does. And when you throw in the perennial losers who really can be excluded (the Clevelands, Jets, and others in the conference), we are even underperforming that since instead of 16 teams it is something like 13 or 14 teams truly in the running for a playoff win.

It would be interesting to see what the playoff win stats are for teams who have "franchise QBs". I'd guess we would be *seriously* underperforming/below the line then. The only ones in that category that might be worse than us is SD, with Rivers.

Oh, and all that is not even working in the fact that there is one other win in the post-season, the SB. That would drop our performance in comparison to other teams even more.

I think the eyeball test ("We haven't been in the playoffs much, have we?") is probably supported by the math. Corrections welcome!

[DrCalculus]

I'm sure someone can run stats, but I'd guess we have been an average team over that last period of time, in terms of playoff wins. Let's see: 1 playoff win in 6 years. 32 teams. Is this right: Each year in each conference 3 teams win the wild card games (including the bye team as a win), 2 teams win the next round, 1 team win the conference championship. That's 6 playoff games won every year in each conference, won among 4 teams. With 16 teams in each conference, that's 25% of NFL teams have a playoff win every year.

So every 4 years the average NFL team would win a playoff game. Did I do that math right?


If that's right, and we've only had one playoff win since 2010 (last year's wildcard), that would put us below what the average team in the league is does. And when you throw in the perennial losers who really can be excluded (the Clevelands, Jets, and others in the conference), we are even underperforming that since instead of 16 teams it is something like 13 or 14 teams truly in the running for a playoff win.

It would be interesting to see what the playoff win stats are for teams who have "franchise QBs". I'd guess we would be *seriously* underperforming/below the line then. The only ones in that category that might be worse than us is SD, with Rivers.

Oh, and all that is not even working in the fact that there is one other win in the post-season, the SB. That would drop our performance in comparison to other teams even more.

I think the eyeball test ("We haven't been in the playoffs much, have we?") is probably supported by the math. Corrections welcome!

Your argument is ignoring the fact that just as certain teams are perennial losers with no chance of winning a playoff game, there are other teams that are much more likely to win a playoff game due to having roster and coaching stability in addition to overall better talent. Those teams account for multiple victories year after year until free agency, injury, or age whittles away their talent. Single victories do not exist in a vacuum --- victories come in chunks. You haven't accounted for this fact in any way. So your math is not even close to accurate.

If you want to know the average number of playoff victories a team could be expected to have, determine the number of playoff wins a team has had over the past 6 years,
then divide by 32. That's it. But then even that is going to be skewed if there is a multiple SB participant in the mix -- and Denver, Seattle, and New England will definitely skew those results. So when you go in knowing a data set is skewed, it is usually better to use the median value if you want to make fair comparisons.

How many teams are there below the Steelers as far as playoff wins in past 6 years?

Bills (0)
Browns (0)
Raiders (0)
Bengals (0)
Jaguars (0)
Rams (0)
Bucs (0)
Titans (0)
Dolphins (0)
Jets (0)
Bears (0)
Texans (0)
Lions (0)
Redskins (0)
Eagles (0)
Vikings (0)
Chargers, Saints, Cowboys (1 each, but less recently than Steelers)

Steelers are just about in the middle of the pack as far as average number of victories goes if you are working with Median, with ties broken by recency of victory. Nineteen out of 32 teams have had a worse last 6 years as far as playoff victories goes.

The Packers, Seahawks, Colts, Broncos, Ravens, and Patriots are hogging most of those victories. Rightly so. They had better talent than the Steelers in most of the past 6 seasons.

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

Your argument...

Far be it for me to argue stats with someone known as DrCalculus, but it seems you did yours to answer the question of historically how have the Steelers done, and my math was how we've done compared to a theoretically average team - apples and oranges.

But both seen to make the same point - we are nowhere close to being near the top of the class. With a franchise once in a generation QB, expecting/hoping for more than that is not unreasonable ...

[Steelhere10]

We're going through the longest stretch of futility in over 25 years.

Between 1991 and 2010, we went to an AFC championship game at least once every four years. Between 1991 and 2013 we never had a four year stretch where we didnt go to an AFCC.

Amazing, but Cowher managed to get to an AFCC every 2.5 years. Tomlin kept up that trend over his first five years too.

I don't hold much hope for this year, but perhaps next year a light goes on somewhere and they turn it around?

All Cowher do was choke away those games 4 to be exact so what dif fence does it makes.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Far be it for me to argue stats with someone known as DrCalculus, but it seems you did yours to answer the question of historically how have the Steelers done, and my math was how we've done compared to a theoretically average team - apples and oranges.

the bye thing is bugging me. Can't give that team a "win" because they didn't beat anybody.

Excluding byes, there doesn't have to be 4 winning teams... imagine a 6 seed runs the table (oh wait, we did that once).

anyway, you have 2 winners the first weekend, only 1 new winner the second weekend (because the 6-seed won) and no new winners the conf championship weekend) because that same 6-seed won. Technically only 3 unique teams won through that entire playoff scenario.

My problem with the bye: if the Steelers were a 1-seed and lost to a 6 seed, you'd say we DID NOT win a playoff game and criticize the coaches (I would, too)... LOL

(funny, this below was a guess then, i researched and it's true... sharing what i see)

Statistically speaking, the 1&2 seeds win less than 75% meaning typically that on average, league-wide, there are ~ 7 unique teams that win per year since one of the top 2 in one conference is likely to be upset by a 3-6 seed. Guessing that percentage of teams that win playoff games annually is down a couple of points closer to 20%, not 25%

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

Great points!

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Great points!

thanks!!

Whatever the case, there are only a few select teams that win playoff games annually. I find it amusing to see the "we've won one in 5 years", which means we're average. We're just spoiled (though, with Ben, we have a right to be... that window is closing rapidly)

[DrCalculus]

Far be it for me to argue stats with someone known as DrCalculus, but it seems you did yours to answer the question of historically how have the Steelers done, and my math was how we've done compared to a theoretically average team - apples and oranges.

But both seen to make the same point - we are nowhere close to being near the top of the class. With a franchise once in a generation QB, expecting/hoping for more than that is not unreasonable ...

Well, if we're putting it all down to QB talent, he has taken the team to 3 Super Bowls and won 2 of them. It's not like Brees, Rodgers, or Rivers --- all once in a generation types on par with Ben --- have done any better. Favre was no better towards the end. The QB can't do it alone, they need the right confluence of talent at other positions, and this team clearly hasn't had it in some time. Great defense, OL, and running game in the Kordell years was wasted by poor QB and mediocre receivers. Now they are almost exactly flipped --- great QB and solid receivers (including Bell in there), and wretched defense and an OL that can't stay healthy. It is what it is --- so I disagree, to expect the team to maintain a high level of performance across the board for the entirety of Ben's career is a pipe dream. You get a 4-6 year window at best with most high performing players, and if you don't reload properly when they get old and slow, that's it, window closed. They needed to have young replacements ready, but stayed too loyal to the vets and the cap prevented them from having new blood ready to slide in and take over. (That is one thing Belicheat has figured out --- jettison them as soon as they start to show any sign of decline.)

That said, if Ben can hang on for another 4 years and the young defense can develop, maybe we might see a similar result as to what the Broncos experienced with Peyton last year.

[squidkid]

All Cowher do was choke away those games 4 to be exact so what dif fence does it makes.

actually,the players lost those games. cowher was perfect in every aspect of coaching those games.

[NorthCoast]

Well, if we're putting it all down to QB talent, he has taken the team to 3 Super Bowls and won 2 of them. It's not like Brees, Rodgers, or Rivers --- all once in a generation types on par with Ben --- have done any better. Favre was no better towards the end. The QB can't do it alone, they need the right confluence of talent at other positions, and this team clearly hasn't had it in some time. Great defense, OL, and running game in the Kordell years was wasted by poor QB and mediocre receivers. Now they are almost exactly flipped --- great QB and solid receivers (including Bell in there), and wretched defense and an OL that can't stay healthy. It is what it is --- so I disagree, to expect the team to maintain a high level of performance across the board for the entirety of Ben's career is a pipe dream. You get a 4-6 year window at best with most high performing players, and if you don't reload properly when they get old and slow, that's it, window closed. They needed to have young replacements ready, but stayed too loyal to the vets and the cap prevented them from having new blood ready to slide in and take over. (That is one thing Belicheat has figured out --- jettison them as soon as they start to show any sign of decline.)

That said, if Ben can hang on for another 4 years and the young defense can develop, maybe we might see a similar result as to what the Broncos experienced with Peyton last year.

And Green Bay is screaming the exact thing... how can Rodgers have fallen so far so fast? ... the reality is the team around him is a shell of itself from a few years ago....