Draft Facts to Ponder

[NorthCoast]

In a 10 yr period the average NFL team will draft the following number of players:

15.7 DBs
13.4 OLs
12.7 DLs
10.6 LBs
9.9 WRs
7.3 RBs
4.6 TEs
3.9 QBs
1.4 Ks

The average time a DB will play for their drafting team is ~2.8yrs. The average time a DB will play in the league is 3.8 yrs. TEs have the longest longevity at a hair over 4 yrs.

Clearly there is a lot of churn for the DB position for most teams as they try to find those gems that can anchor a secondary for a decade like a Polamolu. The Steelers struck gold a while back but are now returning to the DB norm in recent years.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

The Steelers struck gold a while back but are now returning to the DB norm in recent years.

Throw in Ike and guys like Big Play Will Gay and they're probably "better than average" at *hitting* on DBs

[phillyesq]

I don't have time to crunch the numbers but would be interested to see how the Steelers stack up. A link to their draft history is below. I'd bet that they are a bit below average on DL and above average on LBers (based on 3-4 vs 4-3). Not sure where the rest of the numbers would shake out.

[url]http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/draft.htm[/url]

[RuthlessBurgher]

I don't have time to crunch the numbers but would be interested to see how the Steelers stack up. A link to their draft history is below. I'd bet that they are a bit below average on DL and above average on LBers (based on 3-4 vs 4-3). Not sure where the rest of the numbers would shake out.

[URL]http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/draft.htm[/URL]

In the last 10 years (all by Colbert and 9 out of 10 with Tomlin...this year will be the 10th Colbert-Tomlin draft...but Tomlin is still only winning because of Cowher's players, of course), we took:

15 DB (Golson 15, Grant 15, Holliman 15, Richardson 14, Thomas 13, Hawthorne 13, Frederick 12, Brown 11, Allen 11, Butler 10, Lewis 09, Burnett 09, Mundy 08, Gay 07, Smith 06)

15 LB (Dupree 15, Chickillo 15, Shazier 14, Zumwalt 14, Jones 13, Williams 13, Spence 12, Carter 11, Worilds 10, Gibson 10, Sylvester 10, Davis 08, Humpal 08, Timmons 07, Woodley 07)

14 OL (Johnson 14, DeCastro 12, Adams 12, Beachum 12, Gilbert 11, Williams 11, Pouncey 10, Scott 10, Urbik 09, Shipley 09, Hills 08, Stephenson 07, Colon 06, Philip 06)

12 WR (Coates 15, Bryant 14, Wheaton 13, Brown 13, Clemons 12, Sanders 10, Brown 10, Wallace 09, Sweed 08, Baker 07, Holmes 06, Reid 06)

11 DL (Walton 15, Tuitt 14, McCullers 14, Williams 13, Ta'Amu 12, Heyward 11, Worthington 10, Hood 09, Harris 09, McBean 07, Harris 06)

8 RB (Archer 14, Bell 13, Rainey 12, Batch 11, Dwyer 10, Summers 09, Mendenhall 08, Humes 06)

6 TE (James 15, Branchflower 14, Paulson 12, Johnson 09, Spaeth 07, Davis 06)

3 QB (Jones 13, Dixon 08, Jacobs 07)

1 P (Sepulveda 07)

[Northern_Blitz]

3 QB (Jones 13, Dixon 08, Jacobs 07)

Isn't this line great to look at. No need for a real QB through the draft.

One of the huge benefits to having a franchise QB is that you don't need to use frequent high picks to reach for one. That frees you up to pick BPA early in the draft. It's also way better to miss on an early CB / LB than a QB (hello Browns).

[SteelerOfDeVille]

14 OL (Johnson 14, DeCastro 12, Adams 12, Beachum 12, Gilbert 11, Williams 11, Pouncey 10, Scott 10, Urbik 09, Shipley 09, Hills 08, Stephenson 07, Colon 06, Philip 06)

12 WR (Coates 15, Bryant 14, Wheaton 13, Brown 13, Clemons 12, Sanders 10, Brown 10, Wallace 09, Sweed 08, Baker 07, Holmes 06, Reid 06)

Probably the best 2 lines... The WR line is insanely good with high end talent.

[phillyesq]

Probably the best 2 lines... The WR line is insanely good with high end talent.

Wow, 7 out of 12 WRs were not only successful, but really good players. And that is not including Coates. If he pans out, that is 8 of 12 that are absolute hits - can't ask for much better than that. And since '09, the only "miss' would be Tony Clemons - and he was just a 7th round pick.

[NorthCoast]

You have the same success rate drafting a DB in the 7th round as you do drafting one in the 4th (11%)

After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)

If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate. As a matter of fact, Linebackers have the second highest first round success rate behind only the offensive line. 70% of first round linebackers were starters for at least half of their careers.

You're the GM. Given this information and the fact that you want the 1st rd pick to be a "can't miss, difference-maker" what do you draft?

[SteelCrazy]

Golson is going to be a hall of famer......its time