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This is a snippet from the ESPN Insider article "5 Teams on the Decline in 2015". Can't say I agree with any of the logic employed and, from my perspective, am anticipating quite the opposite. Continuity on offense means no growing pains with regard to finding an identity and fresh thinking with the defensive coordinator means unpredictability (although that could admittedly backfire as well).
"Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5 in 2014)
Mean Wins: 8.1 | Playoff Odds: 39.5% (15th) | Wins Super Bowl: 3.1% (13th)
There are two main forces in our new projection system. First, teams will tend to be pulled toward average. Second, teams will tend to be pulled from what they did last year toward an average of what they did in 2012 and 2013. The other variables tend to work on top of these two forces, rewarding teams that have continuity or add significant personnel and penalizing teams that have new head coach/coordinator combos or lose significant personnel.
Pittsburgh's projection is primarily about those two main forces. Last year, the Steelers offense was No. 2 in the NFL, behind only Green Bay, but the defense was 30th, behind only Atlanta and New Orleans. But both the Pittsburgh offense and defense had been much closer to average the previous two seasons. As a result, we're projecting the Pittsburgh offense to be very good, but probably not as good as it was last year, and the defense projects to be bad, but not nearly as bad as last year. The offense projects to decline more than the defense projects to improve because of personnel losses on defense. The other issue is a tougher slate of opponents; Pittsburgh's schedule ranked 29th last year, but this year, starting with a Week 1 game at Foxborough, it either ranks ninth (75 percent of our simulations had Tom Brady suspended four games) or fourth (25 percent of our simulations had Brady's suspension overturned or delayed by federal court)." -Aaron Schatz (ESPN)
"Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5 in 2014)
Mean Wins: 8.1 | Playoff Odds: 39.5% (15th) | Wins Super Bowl: 3.1% (13th)
There are two main forces in our new projection system. First, teams will tend to be pulled toward average. Second, teams will tend to be pulled from what they did last year toward an average of what they did in 2012 and 2013. The other variables tend to work on top of these two forces, rewarding teams that have continuity or add significant personnel and penalizing teams that have new head coach/coordinator combos or lose significant personnel.
Pittsburgh's projection is primarily about those two main forces. Last year, the Steelers offense was No. 2 in the NFL, behind only Green Bay, but the defense was 30th, behind only Atlanta and New Orleans. But both the Pittsburgh offense and defense had been much closer to average the previous two seasons. As a result, we're projecting the Pittsburgh offense to be very good, but probably not as good as it was last year, and the defense projects to be bad, but not nearly as bad as last year. The offense projects to decline more than the defense projects to improve because of personnel losses on defense. The other issue is a tougher slate of opponents; Pittsburgh's schedule ranked 29th last year, but this year, starting with a Week 1 game at Foxborough, it either ranks ninth (75 percent of our simulations had Tom Brady suspended four games) or fourth (25 percent of our simulations had Brady's suspension overturned or delayed by federal court)." -Aaron Schatz (ESPN)
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