For those that would like to engage in a more intelligent discussion on the draft

[NorthCoast]

This site attempts to inject some science into combine stats predicting NFL career stats:

This is, in effect, what we do when we do basic analysis on combine stats. My example might be extreme, but it illustrates the mechanism at work. We trick ourselves into believing that these attributes don't matter when they really do. It's just that we only get to observe the very best players who have survived an extreme selection process. After surviving selection the differences among players in measurable attributes is swamped by their differences in "error," which is just shorthand for "all the other stuff that affects career success."
The survivor effect works like this: The fact that relatively low-attribute players were invited to the Combine or made it onto the NFL field means that they had other qualities and skills that compensated for the low attribute. So the selection process introduces bias into that "error" term. The error is no longer randomly distributed, but very likely to be highly positive.
The lesson here is that scouts should be using the measurables as a "filter" rather than a "coefficient." In other words, they should be looking for red flags where a player might be below a certain minimum level of an attribute, rather than using the attribute as a relative indicator of potential. And as I understand it, that's how teams generally use the Combine in practice.

[URL]http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/draft/234-combine-selection-effect[/URL]

[SidSmythe]

Drrrrrrrr duh Doo Doo .... poopy!!! POOPY!!!

[steelers75]

Sounds like a bunch of hooey to me...

[flippy]

So should they change what they measure at the combine? And what should they measure instead as a better predictor of success at the NFL level?

I think no matter what you measure, there's a tremendous amount of luck in the whole process like ending up in the right situation with the right teammates and the right coaches and the right system that works for a specific player. I've always thought that there's a large % of guys that don't make it because they just land in the wrong spot. And so many guys make it by the same luck.

[hawaiiansteel]

it's hard to measure the amount of heart a player has...

[Captain Lemming]

it's hard to measure the amount of heart a player has...

Actually MORE HEART is worse.
If you have an enlarged heart football will kill you.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Actually MORE HEART is worse.
If you have an enlarged heart football will kill you.

Penny: I always tear up when the Grinch's heart grows three sizes.

Sheldon: Tears seem appropriate. Enlargement of the heart muscle, or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, is a serious disease which can lead to congestive heart failure.

[phillyesq]

Once I saw the term coefficient I stopped reading. Math class PTSD...

[squidkid]

So should they change what they measure at the combine? And what should they measure instead as a better predictor of success at the NFL level?

I think no matter what you measure, there's a tremendous amount of luck in the whole process like ending up in the right situation with the right teammates and the right coaches and the right system that works for a specific player. I've always thought that there's a large % of guys that don't make it because they just land in the wrong spot. And so many guys make it by the same luck.

agreed.
i use that philosophy when it comes to wrs. most of the time a great qb makes a good/great wr. i really have a hard time wanting to pay big money to a wr when i truly believe there are only a handful a great wrs in the league with 20-30 more that could put up great numbers with the right qb. same holds tru for me when it comes to rbs

[NorthCoast]

So should they change what they measure at the combine? And what should they measure instead as a better predictor of success at the NFL level?

I think no matter what you measure, there's a tremendous amount of luck in the whole process like ending up in the right situation with the right teammates and the right coaches and the right system that works for a specific player. I've always thought that there's a large % of guys that don't make it because they just land in the wrong spot. And so many guys make it by the same luck.

The last paragraph is key in my opinion. It's what separates the good teams from the bad. Where do you set the threshold combine values below which you won't even consider looking at the player. I expect there are 32 answers in the NFL.

[flippy]

The last paragraph is key in my opinion. It's what separates the good teams from the bad. Where do you set the threshold combine values below which you won't even consider looking at the player. I expect there are 32 answers in the NFL.

Another way to look at it is, how can you create a system (offense and defense) that best leverages the guys that fall below the thresholds of most of the other 31 teams to give you access to a broader set of players that you can make work effectively in your system while others can't? And how can you filter those players and what are the measurable values you should be considering to filter that expanded list?

And how can you continually evolve that system and values that you are considering so that others can't catch up and you can maintain an ongoing competitive advantage?

Even simpler, how do you keep zigging while everyone is zagging? How do you find and make use of talent no one else wants or sees? And how do you use that talent in a way that others won't ever see the real value of the talent because you cannot measure their talent by common standards?

[RuthlessBurgher]

Another way to look at it is, how can you create a system (offense and defense) that best leverages the guys that fall below the thresholds of most of the other 31 teams to give you access to a broader set of players that you can make work effectively in your system while others can't? And how can you filter those players and what are the measurable values you should be considering to filter that expanded list?

And how can you continually evolve that system and values that you are considering so that others can't catch up and you can maintain an ongoing competitive advantage?

Even simpler, how do you keep zigging while everyone is zagging? How do you find and make use of talent no one else wants or sees? And how do you use that talent in a way that others won't ever see the real value of the talent because you cannot measure their talent by common standards?

Sounds like a decent idea for movie...I wonder if we could get, say, Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill to star in it?

[flippy]

Sounds like a decent idea for movie...I wonder if we could get, say, Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill to star in it?

LOL, I started thinking the same thing while I was typing.

But I don't think it's all that close a comparison because of the complexity of the offense and defensive systems in football. In baseball, if you take a great hitter or pitcher, he likely will perform at a similar level on any team across the league. In football, you get guys all the time that just work in one system but would play like crap on most of the teams across the league.

A Moneyball concept for the NFL might be too hard. Plus there's a salary cap in the NFL, so there's a different set of dynamics at play driving the game.

As an example, in the NFL with the 3-4 D you get these OLB types that are a hyrbid DE/LBs. Or you get these MLB/S hybrids that create whole new positions and responsibilities. In baseball a 3rd baseman is a 3rd baseman. What can you really do to change it up? Get a guy in the infield that's so fast he can play both 3rd and SS to free up another player to play some new position? As good as the strategy gets is when someone like Clint Hurdle moves JaHay from his traditional 3rd base spot and moves him into shallow RC field against a left hander that never hits the ball the other way.

Baseball is to simple algebra as Football is to calculus in infinite dimensions.

[RuthlessBurgher]

I have no idea what a JaHay is.

[flippy]

I have no idea what a JaHay is.

Josh Harrison