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It's been a volatile NFL season, with more than a quarter of games through Week 9 decided by at least 20 points -- the second-highest percentage during the past dozen seasons.
The AFC North has held up its end of the blowout equation: Baltimore has beaten Pittsburgh by 20 and lost to the Steelers by the same margin. Cleveland beat Pittsburgh by 21. Cincinnati has won or lost three of its games by at least 26.
That volatility has made the AFC North a difficult division to handicap. All four teams have winning records. The Steelers were my pick before the season. The Ravens seemed to have a better shot a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals have fewer defeats than any team in the division, while the Browns are already nearing the 6.5 over-under win total oddsmakers projected for them.
What's up with the AFC North? One general manager, one coordinator and two quarterbacks are here to help handicap the division heading into Week 10. Each has played multiple games against AFC North opponents during the first nine weeks of the season.
Both quarterbacks and the GM picked the Steelers to win the division. The coordinator leaned toward the Ravens on the strength of their defense. He thought Pittsburgh would be right behind, although when I asked him about Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, it sounded as though he were making a case for Pittsburgh. "The running game helps him," the coordinator said, "but he doesn't have to have it. He creates things on his own more than the other quarterbacks in the division."
The Bengals remained enigmatic and a bit under the radar despite winning their past two games, including one against Baltimore. The latest odds from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have Cincinnati as an even-money favorite, followed by Pittsburgh (7-4 odds), Baltimore (9-2) and Cleveland (12-1). I take that as a reminder that preseason expectations don't necessarily change just because one team appears hotter than another does now.
Alex Mack's injury has had a devastating impact on the Browns' running game.
Neither the oddsmaker nor the four contributors consulted for this piece thought the Browns -- winners over Tampa Bay and Oakland in recent weeks -- would keep pace. Cleveland leads the NFL in percentage of rushing plays, a smart way to protect quarterback Brian Hoyer from having to carry more of the load. The Browns' average yards per carry has fallen from 4.4 yards through five games to 1.9 yards in the three games since center Alex Mack was lost for the season.
"What Hoyer does is he plays within himself very, very well," the coordinator said. "He doesn't usually get outside of himself and try to be Tom [Brady] or Andrew [Luck] or those guys. It seems like they are coaching him to throw it down the field, so they will just let it fly sometimes. You saw in the Oakland game, he threw some balls that should have been takeaways. He made some mistakes in the Tampa game, too."
Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has set a franchise record with 15 touchdown passes since his last interception.
Three weeks ago, when Pittsburgh was 3-3 and coming off a 31-10 defeat at Cleveland, I thought the Steelers' vital signs on offense were strong enough for the team to break through after ranking 31st in red zone touchdown percentage (31.6) to that point in the season. The sudden emergence of receiver Martavis Bryant has made it happen faster and more spectacularly than anticipated. Pittsburgh has scored 10 touchdowns on its past 12 trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Le'Veon Bell has 1,114 yards from scrimmage, a franchise record through nine games.
"I do think that Mike Munchak has been a huge addition for them coaching the offensive line," one of the opposing quarterbacks said of the Steelers. "They have two really good runners in Bell and [LeGarrette] Blount. They have a good offensive line with [David] DeCastro and [Maurkice] Pouncey. 84 [Antonio Brown] is a beast. But I will say this: Before Cincy got shut out by Indy, I really thought a lot of the Bengals."
It's a long season. The Bengals swept the Ravens and still have two games apiece against the Steelers and Browns. They are in prime position to win a third consecutive division title as their offensive weapons get healthier.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has been without his top three targets at times, obscuring the progress insiders have seen him make in his pre-snap adjustments and how he handles pressure. However, for all the justifiable angst over Pittsburgh's defense, only the Carolina Panthers have taken a bigger step backwards than the Bengals from last season in defensive expected points added (see chart at right -- for an explanation of EPA, click here). Losing Michael Johnson in free agency and Vontaze Burfict to injuries could explain some of the slide. It's also true that the 2013 Bengals were unusually dominant on defense. Each of the top 11 teams in defensive EPA from last season has regressed this season.
The Bengals rank 19th in the league and last among AFC North teams with a point differential of less than one per game. Baltimore ranks sixth overall and first in the division at plus-7.3. But the GM and quarterbacks kept coming back to Roethlisberger as the differentiator for Pittsburgh.
"The Ravens have run the ball better than I expected, but their run game just doesn't strike fear into you," the GM said. "And it is not like Joe Flacco is Drew Brees or even Matt Ryan. Pittsburgh has a running game and a quarterback who just turns it on when he needs to."
Added one of the quarterbacks: "Baltimore's defense is a little thicker than Pittsburgh's and they are stouter for when the weather turns. It gives them a better chance. I just think Pittsburgh is going to emerge. In this league, it is typically about the quarterback, and if Ben keeps playing that way, they are going to be tough to beat."
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The AFC North has held up its end of the blowout equation: Baltimore has beaten Pittsburgh by 20 and lost to the Steelers by the same margin. Cleveland beat Pittsburgh by 21. Cincinnati has won or lost three of its games by at least 26.
That volatility has made the AFC North a difficult division to handicap. All four teams have winning records. The Steelers were my pick before the season. The Ravens seemed to have a better shot a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals have fewer defeats than any team in the division, while the Browns are already nearing the 6.5 over-under win total oddsmakers projected for them.
What's up with the AFC North? One general manager, one coordinator and two quarterbacks are here to help handicap the division heading into Week 10. Each has played multiple games against AFC North opponents during the first nine weeks of the season.
Both quarterbacks and the GM picked the Steelers to win the division. The coordinator leaned toward the Ravens on the strength of their defense. He thought Pittsburgh would be right behind, although when I asked him about Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, it sounded as though he were making a case for Pittsburgh. "The running game helps him," the coordinator said, "but he doesn't have to have it. He creates things on his own more than the other quarterbacks in the division."
The Bengals remained enigmatic and a bit under the radar despite winning their past two games, including one against Baltimore. The latest odds from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have Cincinnati as an even-money favorite, followed by Pittsburgh (7-4 odds), Baltimore (9-2) and Cleveland (12-1). I take that as a reminder that preseason expectations don't necessarily change just because one team appears hotter than another does now.
Alex Mack's injury has had a devastating impact on the Browns' running game.
Neither the oddsmaker nor the four contributors consulted for this piece thought the Browns -- winners over Tampa Bay and Oakland in recent weeks -- would keep pace. Cleveland leads the NFL in percentage of rushing plays, a smart way to protect quarterback Brian Hoyer from having to carry more of the load. The Browns' average yards per carry has fallen from 4.4 yards through five games to 1.9 yards in the three games since center Alex Mack was lost for the season.
"What Hoyer does is he plays within himself very, very well," the coordinator said. "He doesn't usually get outside of himself and try to be Tom [Brady] or Andrew [Luck] or those guys. It seems like they are coaching him to throw it down the field, so they will just let it fly sometimes. You saw in the Oakland game, he threw some balls that should have been takeaways. He made some mistakes in the Tampa game, too."
Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has set a franchise record with 15 touchdown passes since his last interception.
Three weeks ago, when Pittsburgh was 3-3 and coming off a 31-10 defeat at Cleveland, I thought the Steelers' vital signs on offense were strong enough for the team to break through after ranking 31st in red zone touchdown percentage (31.6) to that point in the season. The sudden emergence of receiver Martavis Bryant has made it happen faster and more spectacularly than anticipated. Pittsburgh has scored 10 touchdowns on its past 12 trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Le'Veon Bell has 1,114 yards from scrimmage, a franchise record through nine games.
"I do think that Mike Munchak has been a huge addition for them coaching the offensive line," one of the opposing quarterbacks said of the Steelers. "They have two really good runners in Bell and [LeGarrette] Blount. They have a good offensive line with [David] DeCastro and [Maurkice] Pouncey. 84 [Antonio Brown] is a beast. But I will say this: Before Cincy got shut out by Indy, I really thought a lot of the Bengals."
It's a long season. The Bengals swept the Ravens and still have two games apiece against the Steelers and Browns. They are in prime position to win a third consecutive division title as their offensive weapons get healthier.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has been without his top three targets at times, obscuring the progress insiders have seen him make in his pre-snap adjustments and how he handles pressure. However, for all the justifiable angst over Pittsburgh's defense, only the Carolina Panthers have taken a bigger step backwards than the Bengals from last season in defensive expected points added (see chart at right -- for an explanation of EPA, click here). Losing Michael Johnson in free agency and Vontaze Burfict to injuries could explain some of the slide. It's also true that the 2013 Bengals were unusually dominant on defense. Each of the top 11 teams in defensive EPA from last season has regressed this season.
The Bengals rank 19th in the league and last among AFC North teams with a point differential of less than one per game. Baltimore ranks sixth overall and first in the division at plus-7.3. But the GM and quarterbacks kept coming back to Roethlisberger as the differentiator for Pittsburgh.
"The Ravens have run the ball better than I expected, but their run game just doesn't strike fear into you," the GM said. "And it is not like Joe Flacco is Drew Brees or even Matt Ryan. Pittsburgh has a running game and a quarterback who just turns it on when he needs to."
Added one of the quarterbacks: "Baltimore's defense is a little thicker than Pittsburgh's and they are stouter for when the weather turns. It gives them a better chance. I just think Pittsburgh is going to emerge. In this league, it is typically about the quarterback, and if Ben keeps playing that way, they are going to be tough to beat."
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