Timeouts vs 5 yards

[papillon]

This is something that has made me think for a long time and for the life of me I can't figure out why NFL teams do what they do. See the following scenario and how you would handle the situation.

It's the third quarter of a game, your team has a 3rd and 4 anywhere on the field and the score is close to make this as interesting as possible. The play clock is running down and you are not getting the play off in time and will be assessed a delay of game for 5 yards and will now have a 3rd and 9. Am I the only person alive that believes saving a timeout is the better play than calling a timeout to save 5 yards? I can't think of reason to save the 5 yards and sacrifice a timeout that you could use late in the game to stop the clock on a potential game winning drive or trying to conserve as much time as possible for your offense if the defense is on the field.

To me having the timeout in the 4th quarter is far more important than 5 yards anywhere on the field in the 3rd quarter. I just don't get why a team would use a timeout in the third quarter to save 5 yards and, yet, nearly every NFL team takes the timeout.

What say you?

Pappy

[Jigawatts]

Agreed Pappy. You can get 5 yards back. You can't get a time out back.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Hmmm....I know where you are coming from, and I often think the same thing, but this is often determined by what happens after the timeout. Sometimes it isn't just the saving of a timeout, but it is also making sure that you have the right play called for the situation - maybe the QB isn't comfortable with the playcall and wants to talk it over. You don't want to potentially kill a drive in that situation.

The worst is when they come out of the timeout and run a garbage play that has no chance to succeed. That can be frustrating.

[Shawn]

There is no black and white with this sort of thing, it's situational dependent. What if the 5 yards puts you out of FG range? What if you have been successful in 3rd and 4's much more so in 3rd than 9s and you need this drive because momentum has swung back for the other team. Knowing the situation, how the team is performing in certain situations, understanding the psychology of the team...and the other team could make one call vs the other the "right call".

[papillon]

Hmmm....I know where you are coming from, and I often think the same thing, but this is often determined by what happens after the timeout. Sometimes it isn't just the saving of a timeout, but it is also making sure that you have the right play called for the situation - maybe the QB isn't comfortable with the playcall and wants to talk it over. You don't want to potentially kill a drive in that situation.

The worst is when they come out of the timeout and run a garbage play that has no chance to succeed. That can be frustrating.

Even still, okay, so it's 3rd and 9, get in the huddle and get the correct play called, now you have the time it takes the referee to step off the penalty plus the play clock to get the right play called. I know other factors weigh into this, but take yesterday for example, when the Steelers were driving for the game winner, when you looked at the screen didn't you wish they had all 3 timeouts? I just can't put together a scenario in the 3rd quarter (even being moved out of FG range by the 5 yards, you still have 3rd down to make back the 5 yards and kick on 4th) that has me, as a coach, call that timeout.

Pappy

[BURGH86STEEL]

Sometimes teams have to handle the situation right in front of them as opposed to the unknown of the 4th QT.

Converting 3rd downs is the 2nd determining factor (turnovers being 1st) when it comes down to deciding a win vs a loss. Offenses increase the teams' chances of winning if they are good at converting on 3rd down. %'s wise, it's easier to convert a 3rd and 4. Teams can also choose to run or pass in 3rd and 4 situations. The defense can rest more if the offense can convert the 3rd and 4. I suspect this is one reason why being good on 3rd down increases the teams chances of winning if the offense doesn't give the ball away.

[papillon]

There is no black and white with this sort of thing, it's situational dependent. What if the 5 yards puts you out of FG range? What if you have been successful in 3rd and 4's much more so in 3rd than 9s and you need this drive because momentum has swung back for the other team. Knowing the situation, how the team is performing in certain situations, understanding the psychology of the team...and the other team could make one call vs the other the "right call".

Okay, if it were situational dependent that would indicate that at times they take the 5 yards, I don't think I ever remember a time when a coach just let the play clock run down, take the 5 yards and then call the next play. It may have happened, but I don't recall seeing it.

If it moves the team out of FG range, you still have 3rd down to get the yards back or even get the 1st. I'm certain that 3rd and 4 is converted at a higher rate than 3rd and 9, but in the 3rd quarter, there is plenty of time and nearly every time in the 4th quarter I'm wishing the Steelers still had all 3 timeouts.

I just can't put together a scenario in my mind where that 5 yards is that important, not with today's PI and holding rules. Back in the day (70s), okay, yards were harder to come by and defenses ruled the league, maybe, you save the yards rather than the timeout. In today's game, picking up 5 yards or 9 yards while not a guarantee by any stretch, is much easier than it was a few decades ago.

Pappy

[NJ-STEELER]

yes totally agree with u pap

save the timeout for the end of the game.

much more valuable then

[7 UP]

There is no black and white with this sort of thing, it's situational dependent. What if the 5 yards puts you out of FG range? What if you have been successful in 3rd and 4's much more so in 3rd than 9s and you need this drive because momentum has swung back for the other team. Knowing the situation, how the team is performing in certain situations, understanding the psychology of the team...and the other team could make one call vs the other the "right call".

I would have to agree with this. Its completely situational. Between the 40s giving up the 5 on 3rd and short may be a smart move. But there are alot of variables. When Bens your QB its probably worth risk. Now if say Gradkowski is in the game Id take the 3 and 4 and call a timeout. Dont forget a 2nd half 3rd down conversion can be crucial to the outcome of a game. If calling the timeout gives the coaching staff the extra time needed to get the correct play called then its worth the TO.

[flippy]

This is something that has made me think for a long time and for the life of me I can't figure out why NFL teams do what they do. See the following scenario and how you would handle the situation.

It's the third quarter of a game, your team has a 3rd and 4 anywhere on the field and the score is close to make this as interesting as possible. The play clock is running down and you are not getting the play off in time and will be assessed a delay of game for 5 yards and will now have a 3rd and 9. Am I the only person alive that believes saving a timeout is the better play than calling a timeout to save 5 yards? I can't think of reason to save the 5 yards and sacrifice a timeout that you could use late in the game to stop the clock on a potential game winning drive or trying to conserve as much time as possible for your offense if the defense is on the field.

To me having the timeout in the 4th quarter is far more important than 5 yards anywhere on the field in the 3rd quarter. I just don't get why a team would use a timeout in the third quarter to save 5 yards and, yet, nearly every NFL team takes the timeout.

What say you?

Pappy

You only get 12 possession per game on average. You need to score points any time and any way that you can. There's no guarantee that you'll even get or need a possession at the end of a game.

Clearly if you need to take a TO in the middle of the 3rd Q, you've probably screwed something up. It's not optimal and everyone would prefer to save their TOs til the end of the game just in case. But if you need them, use them now cause possessions are precious and limited.

How bout looking at it as, would you give up 8.3% (1 drive) of your opportunities to score in order to save a TO that you may/may not need at the end of the game? If you had to call 3 TOs in the 3rd Q, you could be protecting 25% of your possessions.

And I bet your odds of scoring are better when you have time to score in the 3rd Q than they are when you are scrambling at the end of the game to try and pull something out last minute.

Another way to look at it is this. I could save every penny I ever make in life so it lasts until I'm 100. I could forgo spending on lots of things I need throughout the course of life to buy my long term security and peace of mind. And then BLAM!!!, I get hit by a beer truck when I'm 40.

I'm sure there's a case for spending a little more, but not spending everything. Just like there's situations where it may or may not make sense to use the TO.

[Eich]

I tend to agree. But much more frustrating to me is when a receiver - like Wheaton on Sunday - forgets it's the end of the game with time running out and doesn't go out of bounds after making a catch near the sidelines. For a professional player, that deserves a beating.

And then there's the times when the clock is running out and it seems like we call play that's very likely to gain only a few yards in the middle of the field, running off 20 seconds for nothing.

[pfelix73]

Like others have said, it is situational. I will say this.. A 3rd and 9 is an obvious passing down and the defense is gonna be rushing the QB which will make it harder for the O to pick up a 3rd and long. At 3rd and 4, the shorter distance could be a run. The defense will be looking at either option there run or pass.. For example- on the one 3rd and long this past Sunday (1st drive) Steelers were in an obvious passing down, the Browns DL didn't have to defend the run- they knew full well the Steelers were passing... Gilbert gave up the sack.... Steelers settle for 3 points.. The easiest thing to do is blame the OT, but still... the 3rd and long makes that 3rd down much less likely to succeed rather than a 3rd and 4 or 3rd and short..

I've said all along that in today's league, the coaches need to have a better understanding of statistics and probability. Take our game on Sunday... There was one play in the 3rd Q where we we obviously lost the momentum and we desperately needed to keep a drive alive.... Ben drops back and hurls a long pass incomplete and they had to punt. Why not just go for the 1st down there instead of throwing a long pass that has less of a chance to be caught...? Probability would say- go for the easier, shorter play that you have a better chance of completing.....my 2 cents...

[BURGH86STEEL]

Like others have said, it is situational. I will say this.. A 3rd and 9 is an obvious passing down and the defense is gonna be rushing the QB which will make it harder for the O to pick up a 3rd and long. At 3rd and 4, he shorter distance could be a run. The defense will have to looking at either option there run or pass..

I've said all along that in today's league, the coaches need to have a better understanding of statistics and probability. Take our game on Sunday... There was one play in the 3rd Q where we we obviously lost the momentum and we desperately needed to keep a drive alive.... Ben drops back and hurls a long pass incomplete and they had to punt. Why not just go for the 1st down there instead of throwing a long pass that has less of a chance to be caught...? just my 2 cents...

The coaches and organizations do use & have statistics and probability at their disposal. Some of the information is out there if people choose to look and listen to what professionals state. For example, taking care of the football and converting 3rd downs are leading factors in winning football games. Many of the coaches might not actually know the actual %'s but they know that taking care of the football and converting on 3rd down are key to winning games.

On the flip side, sometimes coaches ignore the statistically probabilities based on the flow of the game or intuition. Unless teams have a mathematical genius with a photo graphic memory(I think the Pats did) it's difficult for coaches to use in game data vs the opposition. The league has taken statistics and probability that teams can use against the opposition on game days pretty much out of the equation (no computers allowed). The league wants to keep the coaching aspect of the game intact on game days.

The coaches provided Ben with options. Ben made the decision where to throw the pass.

[papillon]

You only get 12 possession per game on average. You need to score points any time and any way that you can. There's no guarantee that you'll even get or need a possession at the end of a game.

Clearly if you need to take a TO in the middle of the 3rd Q, you've probably screwed something up. It's not optimal and everyone would prefer to save their TOs til the end of the game just in case. But if you need them, use them now cause possessions are precious and limited.

How bout looking at it as, would you give up 8.3% (1 drive) of your opportunities to score in order to save a TO that you may/may not need at the end of the game? If you had to call 3 TOs in the 3rd Q, you could be protecting 25% of your possessions.

And I bet your odds of scoring are better when you have time to score in the 3rd Q than they are when you are scrambling at the end of the game to try and pull something out last minute.

Another way to look at it is this. I could save every penny I ever make in life so it lasts until I'm 100. I could forgo spending on lots of things I need throughout the course of life to buy my long term security and peace of mind. And then BLAM!!!, I get hit by a beer truck when I'm 40.

I'm sure there's a case for spending a little more, but not spending everything. Just like there's situations where it may or may not make sense to use the TO.

I'm not giving up a drive, I'm giving up 5 yards, which may make converting third down a bit more difficult, but you haven't conceded the drive until you fail on third down, but if you take the TO you definitely have eliminated a TO that you may or may not need.

My scenario also put the team the worst possible situation, 3rd down, what about the TOs taken on 1st and 10, or 2nd and 9, or 2nd and 6 or 2nd and 4 are you taking a TO to save 5 yards? Gaining yards in today's NFL isn't nearly as difficult as it was prior to the rule changes.

If TOs were inconsequential that wouldn't take one from you for a failed challenge.

Pappy

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

3rd and 13 - 9 and a half minutes to go, on their own 35. SD up 5, calls timeout. Coming out of the timeout, Rivers hits Gates for a 34 yarder.

The choice was not only 5 yards vs. timeout, but it was also a choice between calling the right play, and conceding the ball. Sometimes, confidence in your play calling, and the ability to find and exploit a mismatch, supersedes the question of TO vs. 5 yards.