15-20% of Drafting Success in the 4th Round

[flippy]

Over the last 40 years, we've taken the following guys that have been above average players - Stallworth, Aaron Smith, Ike, Foote, Deshea, and Thomas Everett. That's 6.

Recently we've taken Cortez Allen and Shmarko Thomas. Jury is still out on those guys.

So we're either 6 for 40 or 8 for 40 over the last 40 years.

Thus the 15-20% chance of getting a good player. I say we swing for the fences with those odds. Might as well take a huge risk with these stats.

[Iron City Inc.]

Well that fits the bill as you suggested as far as swinging for the HR.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Terry Long, Kevin Henry, Earl Holmes, and Willie Colon were also reasonably solid 4th round picks as well.

[flippy]

Terry Long, Kevin Henry, Earl Holmes, and Willie Colon were also reasonably solid 4th round picks as well.

I wasn't sure where to draw the cutoff in terms of good players. Even 4 more puts us at 25-30% success.

[flippy]

Well that fits the bill as you suggested as far as swinging for the HR.

Agreed. I think this must be how they look at it and has been the approach recently with Allen and Shmarko and even Jones to a degree even though we didn't need him.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Of course, we also got Weegie Thompson in the 4th as well. Regardless of whether or not he performed on the field, getting a guy named Weegie at any point has got to be considered to be a WIN.