Odds on our first rnd pick...

[legend of polamalu]

I have put together some percentages on who I believe our first round pick will be...

Percentages based on Professional Mock Drafts on line, Pro Football Draft Guide, NFL Networks Path to the Draft, my own gut feeling, who I believe and others believe will possibly still be on the board at 15, The Steelers Way (how they usually pick), Steelers draft needs and Planet Steelers Forum.

I am bored and there is no Sunday Night Football, So here goes... This will be updated each week. I have picked successfully our first round pick in 8 of the last 10 drafts (no evidence though besides my wife's word)


4-6-14

D. Dennard CB M. State 20%
E. Ebron TE N.Carolina 18%
M. Lee WR USC 15%
*J. Gilbert CB OK ST. 11%
L. Nix DT N. Dame 9%
*M. Evans WR T A & M 8%
CJ Mosely ILB ALA 7%
J. Verrett CB TCU 5%
B. Cooks WR OR ST. 4%
K. Fuller CB VA TECH 2%
K. Ealy DE Missouri 1%

* Numbers low as player projected to be picked before 15

If you feel there is anyone missing that we may pick who could be on the board, I would love to hear from you.

I have checked many a mocks...It seems as though a little less than half of them have Dennard and Gilbert gone when we pick. If this is the case, I believe we end up with Ebron or M. Lee.

I do feel there is a strong percentage we will be trading down this year which would blow all these numbers up.


Final Update: 5-1-2014

D. Dennard CB M. State 19%
CJ Mosely ILB ALA 16%
*J. Gilbert CB OK ST. 14%
Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU 12%
K. Fuller CB Va Tech 12%

*An offensive Tackle (Lewan, Thomas) 8%
E. Ebron TE N.Carolina 5%
*M. Evans WR T A & M 5%
*A. Barr OLB UCLA 4%
L. Nix DT N. Dame 3%
M. Lee WR USC 2%

At the end of the day I feel we end up with Dennard, Mosely, Beckham Jr or Fuller

[Sugar]

Everyone seems to think that this is a very deep draft. It seems like that would make it really hard to trade down.

Anyway, the chances seem good that Dennard will be the guy. If so, good for him and good for Pittsburgh. It's not a sexy pick, but it makes sense. A lot of my family is from up there and they were ecstatic when we got Bell and are really hoping we get Dennard too.

[legend of polamalu]

I have K. Benjamin WR, A. Barr OLB and A. Donald DT as the next guys that we may look at if there.

[Oviedo]

I have put together some percentages on who I believe our first round pick will be...

Percentages based on Professional Mock Drafts on line, Pro Football Draft Guide, NFL Networks Path to the Draft, my own gut feeling, who I believe and others believe will possibly still be on the board at 15, The Steelers Way (how they usually pick), Steelers draft needs and Planet Steelers Forum.

I am bored and there is no Sunday Night Football, So here goes... This will be updated each week. I have picked successfully our first round pick in 8 of the last 10 drafts (no evidence though besides my wife's word)


4-6-14

D. Dennard CB M. State 20%
E. Ebron TE N.Carolina 18%
M. Lee WR USC 15%
*J. Gilbert CB OK ST. 11%
L. Nix DT N. Dame 9%
*M. Evans WR T A & M 8%
CJ Mosely ILB ALA 7%
J. Verrett CB TCU 5%
B. Cooks WR OR ST. 4%
K. Fuller CB VA TECH 2%
K. Ealy DE Missouri 1%

* Numbers low as player projected to be picked before 15

If you feel there is anyone missing that we may pick who could be on the board, I would love to hear from you.

I have checked many a mocks...It seems as though a little less than half of them have Dennard and Gilbert gone when we pick. If this is the case, I believe we end up with Ebron or M. Lee.

I do feel there is a strong percentage we will be trading down this year which would blow all these numbers up.

With a draft as deep as this one is reported to be it will be difficult to trade down. Someone below us is really goindg to have to want a specific player. Not sure there are any of those kinds of players projected to still be around at #15

[phillyesq]

I think that there is a strong chance that the first round pick is somebody that catches passes or covers those trying to do so. Not necessarily based on my preference, but based on what I think the Steelers will do, I think the first round pick will likely be one of the following:

D. Dennard
K. Benjamin
J. Gilbert
M. Evans

The other guys who I think have a chance:

A. Barr
R. Hageman/S. Tuitt/L. Nix (I think 1.15 is too high for these three).

[Shawn]

I think that is pretty close. I would have Mosley much higher, maybe as high as second on that list. We don't have a starting quality ILB on this roster. Mosley is a tackling machine. If it's not a DB, and Evans don't fall...it's not going to be a WR. The draft is too deep in the second at WR. They will be looking for a big school guy on D who has produced...and Mosley fits that bill. I think it will be one of 4 guys...Dennard, Gilbert, Mosley, or Ebron.

[Shawn]

I think that there is a strong chance that the first round pick is somebody that catches passes or covers those trying to do so. Not necessarily based on my preference, but based on what I think the Steelers will do, I think the first round pick will likely be one of the following:

D. Dennard
K. Benjamin
J. Gilbert
M. Evans

The other guys who I think have a chance:

A. Barr
R. Hageman/S. Tuitt/L. Nix (I think 1.15 is too high for these three).

I see almost no way the Steelers draft Benjamin. He is considered around the 5th best WR in the draft...the Steelers don't reach in the first.

[legend of polamalu]

I think that is pretty close. I would have Mosley much higher, maybe as high as second on that list. We don't have a starting quality ILB on this roster. Mosley is a tackling machine. If it's not a DB, and Evans don't fall...it's not going to be a WR. The draft is too deep in the second at WR. They will be looking for a big school guy on D who has produced...and Mosley fits that bill. I think it will be one of 4 guys...Dennard, Gilbert, Mosley, or Ebron.

Yea, I may move him up...I just don't see many mocks with us grabbing him. I also see he is undersized for an ILB which the Steelers usually stay away from. Plus we have gone LB heavy of late. Mostly OLB though.

[Shawn]

He may be a bit small but he is smart, and covers really well. Tomlin doesn't like big thumpers, he likes the more mobile LBrs who can cover. Mosley is that guy. My ONLY reservation with Mosley is his knee. Some believe he has some mileage on him.

[Oviedo]

Yea, I may move him up...I just don't see many mocks with us grabbing him. I also see he is undersized for an ILB which the Steelers usually stay away from. Plus we have gone LB heavy of late. Mostly OLB though.

He is probably bigger than Farrior was for most of his career with us. I recall reading once that Farrior was playing at 220lbs or less. Timmons just happens to be a physical freak with his combination of size and athleticism.

One named not mentioned which could be a real wildcard is Ryan Shazier. He fits the "run and hit" type LB that Tomlin loves. Tremendous speed and sideline to sideline pursuit capability which is becoming more critical as teams use TEs and RBs more as pass catchers.

[JUST-PLAIN-NASTY]

I am a Benjamin fan but Even I don't like him at #15. You have to give me better value (+ player) as a 3rd round pick to go along with Benjamin meaning trade down. That will be a challenge in itself to get a partner. Gilbert, Dennard, & Evans are the "realistic" targets. If they aren't there & you can't trade out...BPA. I hate some of the options, as well as many in here, as BPA...But I would understand.

The more & more I plug scenarios in the Top 14 picks...I seem to get a group of 6 players that keep coming up. The Top 3 of the list is Gilbert, Dennard, & Evans....And they fill that "Want" category. Any of the 3 I would be very pleased with. I also feel that if none of them are there...They will try & get out. The bottom 3 of the list Ebron, Lewan, & Barr seem to be the BPA players remaining. If the Steelers can't get out of #15...I would take them in that order. My choice would be getting out before I take any of Ebron, Lewan, & Barr as BPA. I feel Fuller, Benajmin, Mosley, Nix, Hageman, or any WR is a reach at #15. Fuller would be the closest riser out of that group...But still...I still feel a reach at #15.

The flurry in FA plugged allot of voids but it also tells me the Steelers are preparing for the dreaded BPA in the 1st. The pick that could have many going WTF. The have done a pretty decent job of covering the "Just in case." There is an equally realistic chance that it doesn't happen...But they are prepared if it does. Even if it does happen...The pick at #15 if BPA will make the team better. Before the draft...I could put together a 53 that would be better than the 53 that finished 6-2 with 2 vet min FA signings. One would be Kiesel. I think the Steelers are holding off on Kiesel because signing him could hinder the 53 depth chart not knowing what the draft will bring. The new position coaches, guys returning from injury, & young players making strides could impact just how better that 53 is but even not taking that into account...I feel it is better. I feel it is a playoff team...But not a contender. The have to close the gap on some teams. That's where the draft & the development of what they have right now comes in.

[K Train]

He is probably bigger than Farrior was for most of his career with us. I recall reading once that Farrior was playing at 220lbs or less. Timmons just happens to be a physical freak with his combination of size and athleticism.

One named not mentioned which could be a real wildcard is Ryan Shazier. He fits the "run and hit" type LB that Tomlin loves. Tremendous speed and sideline to sideline pursuit capability which is becoming more critical as teams use TEs and RBs more as pass catchers.

Mosely could be just like Keith Rivers, or he could be closer to Kuechley....very tough to tell with bama defenders lately

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I think that is pretty close. I would have Mosley much higher, maybe as high as second on that list. We don't have a starting quality ILB on this roster. Mosley is a tackling machine. If it's not a DB, and Evans don't fall...it's not going to be a WR. The draft is too deep in the second at WR. They will be looking for a big school guy on D who has produced...and Mosley fits that bill. I think it will be one of 4 guys...Dennard, Gilbert, Mosley, or Ebron.

My worry with Mosely is that I wonder if they are willing to pass because they have bigger, more immediate needs (WR and CB). IMO, Mosley should be rated higher than Benjamin, for example, however, I suspect if Dennard, Gilbert and Evans were gone, they might choose Benjamin over Mosely.

Here's to hoping for Dennard to still be there.

[Shawn]

My worry with Mosely is that I wonder if they are willing to pass because they have bigger, more immediate needs (WR and CB). IMO, Mosley should be rated higher than Benjamin, for example, however, I suspect if Dennard, Gilbert and Evans were gone, they might choose Benjamin over Mosely.

Here's to hoping for Dennard to still be there.

I just don't see it. While DB and WR might be bigger needs I can't think of an ILB I am happy filling that position. Benjamin is reported to have poor motivation, having his QB have to give him the ole finger wag in order to get him moving. That doesn't scream 15 to me. If they were bent on WR, they would roll with Lee. But, I don't think they are bent on WR in the first. In fact, I think they know it won't be WR in the first, unless Evans or Watkins miraculously fall. I'm not even sure I can convince myself of Ebron considering the Steelers like TEs that can block. So, I must stand pat and say it's likely Dennard, Gilbert or Mosley...with Barr as a remote possibility as well.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Mosely could be just like Keith Rivers, or he could be closer to Kuechley....very tough to tell with bama defenders lately

Yeah, as Bama ILB of recent vintage go, Rolando McClain has been an unmitigated disaster of a pick, and Dont'a Hightower has been nothing to write home about.

If you are going to place guys like Luke Kuechly and Patrick Willis on one end of the early LB spectrum and Keith Rivers and Aaron Curry on the other end of the early LB spectrum, I see more a chance of bust potential than elite level dominance from Mosley. But that's just me. I'll pass on him in the first. Sure, ILB is a need, but it always seems like you can get a Bobby Wagner type or a Laurinaitis/Posluzsny type on day two of the draft instead.