Why Was Ben Having a Pro Bowl Caliber Season Last Year?

[flippy]

You fail to see that Ben's 3rd down efficiency WAS A RESULT of Haley's offense, not in spite of it
I ask you this Flippy, why was Ben BETTER in third down than in recent years?
He was far LESS schoolyard than in recent years.

Ben's 3rd down efficiency WENT UP because he made quicker reads and threw shorter high percentage pases that moved the chains.

That is why Millers catches were WAY UP. Rather than waiting for deeper lower percentage routes all the time, Ben settled for quicker easy completions.

Hence the great 3rd down efficiency

Maybe we got into more 3rd and manageable yardage than before, but I still seem to remember more heroics than usual on this year's 3rd down conversions. I don't know how often we were in 3rd and long vs 3rd and short or how many times Ben converted making a quick throw vs holding the ball and being Ben. I'm just going off the overall trend I think I remembered which can always be off because the exciting plays are always the most memorable.

Re: Heath - I think he just got the majority of the targets Hines would have gotten if he were here. I always thought of Hines as a WR that played the game more like a TE. I've always thought Heath Miller was the best overall TE in the game and wondered if he weren't on the same field as Hines if he could have had a chance at a HOF career.

[flippy]

It also seemed that we were in third and short much more often than third and long. Dink or dunk it on 1st and 2nd down and get a manageable 3rd down and all of a sudden you're punting much less frequently.

I was thinking 3rd and short might be the answer. But I have no ideas how to quantify often we really did get in 3rd and manageable situations? I was kinda hoping someone had all the stats up their sleeve and could further explain the shift in Roethlisberger's game. Everyone talks about it, but I just haven't really seen anyone lay out the stats on what worked and why.

[grotonsteel]

I was thinking 3rd and short might be the answer. But I have no ideas how to quantify often we really did get in 3rd and manageable situations? I was kinda hoping someone had all the stats up their sleeve and could further explain the shift in Roethlisberger's game. Everyone talks about it, but I just haven't really seen anyone lay out the stats on what worked and why.

I have my doubt that Steelers were in 3rd and short more often than not.

Steelers running game was horrible apart from those 3-4 games period. I have my doubts if Haley threw more on 1st down. If that was the case how were Steelers in 3rd and short??

I maybe wrong since i don't have the stats but i don't believe 3rd and short was the reason for Ben's success on 3rd down.

This was in a Philly paper before Steelers vs Eagles game:

The Money Down: That’s what they call third down. Despite playing behind shaky protection, Ben Roethlisberger has been money on third down in the Steelers’ first three games. He’s first in the league in third-down passing with a 145.1 rating. He’s completed 75 percent of his passes and has averaged 9.83 yards per attempt on third down

Now 9.83 YPA can't be 3rd and short situation. It holds true for first 3 games.


P.s: Font turned black.

[Slapstick]

I have my doubt that Steelers were in 3rd and short more often than not.

Steelers running game was horrible apart from those 3-4 games period. I have my doubts if Haley threw more on 1st down. If that was the case how were Steelers in 3rd and short??

I maybe wrong since i don't have the stats but i don't believe 3rd and short was the reason for Ben's success on 3rd down.

This was in a Philly paper before Steelers vs Eagles game:

The Money Down: That’s what they call third down. Despite playing behind shaky protection, Ben Roethlisberger has been money on third down in the Steelers’ first three games. He’s first in the league in third-down passing with a 145.1 rating. He’s completed 75 percent of his passes and has averaged 9.83 yards per attempt on third down

Now 9.83 YPA can't be 3rd and short situation. It holds true for first 3 games.


P.s: Font turned black.

YpA has nothing to do with what down it is...

But, the stats break down like this:

449 pass attempts in 2012

162 of those were on 1st down

124 of those were on 3rd down...50 on 3rd and <6, 74 on 3rd and 6+...

2011: 140 attempts on 3rd down...55 on 3rd and <6, 85 on 3rd and 6+...

2010: 107 attempts on 3rd down...36 on 3rd and <6, 71 on 3rd and 6+...

2009: 132 attempts on 3rd down...52 on 3rd and <6, 80 on 3rd and 6+...

I can't tell anything significant...but, as for his other numbers on 3rd down, he was especially good in 2012 and 2010, not so good in 2009 comparatively...

[Captain Lemming]

Maybe we got into more 3rd and manageable yardage than before, but I still seem to remember more heroics than usual on this year's 3rd down conversions. I don't know how often we were in 3rd and long vs 3rd and short or how many times Ben converted making a quick throw vs holding the ball and being Ben. I'm just going off the overall trend I think I remembered which can always be off because the exciting plays are always the most memorable.

Re: Heath - I think he just got the majority of the targets Hines would have gotten if he were here. I always thought of Hines as a WR that played the game more like a TE. I've always thought Heath Miller was the best overall TE in the game and wondered if he weren't on the same field as Hines if he could have had a chance at a HOF career.

Heaths career year was WITH Hines.
The playcalling THAT year (1st year of Arians) I REALLY liked. Frankly the best playcalling of Ben's career in my opinion.
Ben was a 3rd down beast that year too.
Arains and Ben went away from Heath one we got more speed at receiver.

Let me give you an example of an early season game by Ben. Our highest scoring game only game above 30.
Here is every third down pass versus the Raiders:

Ben Roethlisberger pass complete short middle to Jerricho Cotchery for 9 yards (tackle by Joselio Hanson and Patrick Lee)
Ben Roethlisberger pass complete short right to Heath Miller for 4 yards, touchdown


Ben Roethlisberger pass complete short middle to Mike Wallace for 16 yards (tackle by Matt Giordano)
Ben Roethlisberger pass complete short right to Emmanuel Sanders for 7 yards (tackle by Tyvon Branch)


Ben Roethlisberger pass complete short left to Chris Rainey for 14 yards (tackle by Lamarr Houston)
Penalty on Ben Roethlisberger: Delay of Game, 5 yards (no play)
Ben Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle intended for Heath Miller (defended by Philip Wheeler)


Ben Roethlisberger spiked the ball (Halftime)


Ben Roethlisberger pass complete middle to Mike Wallace for 22 yards (tackle by Tyvon Branch)
Ben Roethlisberger pass complete middle to Mike Wallace for 22 yards, touchdown


Ben Roethlisberger pass complete short right to Heath Miller for 9 yards (tackle by Michael Mitchell)


Ben Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle intended for Mike Wallace


In summery- Ben completed his first 5 3rd down passes all under short passes.
All of these converted to 1st downs except for one that was a third and 25 due to penalties on the drive.
Bens 1st 3rd down incompletion was pass number 6 his first deep pass.
THAT WAS HIS ONLY THIRD DOWN INCOMPLETION IN THE ENTIRE 1st half.


Ben's longest third down completion was 22 yards for the game.


Bens second 3rd down incompletion of the game was a deep pass to Wallace.
It was his last pass of the day. Consider Ben hit 100 percent of his short and medium 3rd down passes (he was FLAWLESS), but went deep with his last pass, incomplete, Raiders get the ball back and win the game on a late field goal.


Ben was 100 percent on short and medium 3rd down passes. His ONLY 3rd down incompletions IN THE ENTIRE GAME were 2 deep balls. Not a single sack.

Bens 3rd down efficiency was without question due to the emphasis on shorter passes.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

First of all... Ben wasn't having a pro bowl caliber season... he was having one of HIS better seasons... but, he wouldn't have beat out Manning, Brady or any of the other bozos that made it. His numbers weren't THAT good -- the league was up as a whole when it comes to passing and I woudl guess he was sitting at about 5th or so in the AFC...

I find it amusing how we drift between "compare him to only past versions of HIMSELF" but, "the only variable you're allowed to change is the OC when we say so"... and we don't care that the league as a whole had improved passing numbers... that's not a variable at all... at least not this year.So, first, let me rephrase the question...

Q: "Why was Ben having arguably HIS best season?"
A: "There are a number of factors, including, but, not limited to: a new OC, a struggling running game that forced the team to pass more, and some early season games where the team was forced to pass due to situation (like 384, 4TDs in a loss to the raiders and 363 in a loss to the Titans). If fantasy football has taught us all one thing... it's good for your QB to trail late in a game... it's good for your RB to be ahead. One team is airing it out, the other is milking the clock. Starting a season with 3 losses in 5 games will work wonders for your stats if you're even average...

So, my answer is: OC, struggling running game, "game situation".

ANOTHER (related) QUESTION. In the past, we talked proudly about YPA (Yards Per Attempt) with Ben... He was always among the league leaders, regardless of OC (whiz, arians, etc).

Did he remain among the league leaders? Those who are estute in math, realize this isn't just factor of deep passes - if I go 10-for-10 on 6 yard passes, or 1-for-10 on 60 yard passes, i have the same YPA. Ideally, you want a nice balance of high-percentage passes, mixed in with a few calculated risks.

To me, it FELT like a much smaller YPA than usual. His completion percentage didn't seem significantly higher than the rest of his career...there were just a lot of shorter passes. People are acting like they never hit 3rd down, but, it didn't feel like that was significantly improved.. (OK, with that thought, i have to look this up and add to reply, but, i'm not rewriting - nice "flow of thought")

Career 2012 2011 Completion Percentage 63.1 63.3 63.2 YPA 7.93* 7.27 8.23 TEAM FIRST DOWNS 307 341

* This number is slightly over 8, excluding 2012.

I'm even blown away by the last one - I would have expected the dink and dunk to have netted more first downs. I guess it proves what i was thinking and where i was going with the YPA and completion percentage, though... The only thing that offense managed to do - was eliminate the deep ball. It didn't improve his completion percentage. It didn't net more first downs. And it obviously didn't keep him safe. Whew... I'm exhausted. But, I've totally convinced myself of what *i* saw to be exactly what happened...

[URL]http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/5536/ben-roethlisberger[/URL] (Ben's stats)
[URL]http://www.steelers.com/team/statistics.html[/URL] (Team stats)

[Shawn]

We can explain away Ben's first 8 games (which were exceptional btw) with any sort of reasoning we wish. The fact is this, Ben was having HIS best season before injury. And I would actually think a poor ground game would actually damage his ability to throw, not the other way around. He was having HIS best season in a new system, with new terminology, and with Wallace not playing anywhere near 100%. I can only guess Ben being more comfortable and having more say will jump to that next level this season. IMO, MUCH of that can be attributed to Haley. But, I'm sure when Ben comes out hot, there will be some that say he is doing it despite Haley...not because of Haley.

[Captain Lemming]

We can explain away Ben's first 8 games (which were exceptional btw) with any sort of reasoning we wish. The fact is this, Ben was having HIS best season before injury. And I would actually think a poor ground game would actually damage his ability to throw, not the other way around. He was having HIS best season in a new system, with new terminology, and with Wallace not playing anywhere near 100%. I can only guess Ben being more comfortable and having more say will jump to that next level this season. IMO, MUCH of that can be attributed to Haley. But, I'm sure when Ben comes out hot, there will be some that say he is doing it despite Haley...not because of Haley.

Proof as follows:

Before his Week 10 shoulder and rib woes, however, he was on pace for 4,406 passing yards, 32 TDs, eight INTs and a 67 percent completion rate.

[URL]http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/5536/ben-roethlisberger[/URL]

[Captain Lemming]

First of all... Ben wasn't having a pro bowl caliber season... he was having one of HIS better seasons... but, he wouldn't have beat out Manning, Brady or any of the other bozos that made it. His numbers weren't THAT good -- the league was up as a whole when it comes to passing and I woudl guess he was sitting at about 5th or so in the AFC...

I find it amusing how we drift between "compare him to only past versions of HIMSELF" but, "the only variable you're allowed to change is the OC when we say so"... and we don't care that the league as a whole had improved passing numbers... that's not a variable at all... at least not this year.So, first, let me rephrase the question...

Q: "Why was Ben having arguably HIS best season?"
A: "There are a number of factors, including, but, not limited to: a new OC, a struggling running game that forced the team to pass more, and some early season games where the team was forced to pass due to situation (like 384, 4TDs in a loss to the raiders and 363 in a loss to the Titans). If fantasy football has taught us all one thing... it's good for your QB to trail late in a game... it's good for your RB to be ahead. One team is airing it out, the other is milking the clock. Starting a season with 3 losses in 5 games will work wonders for your stats if you're even average...

So, my answer is: OC, struggling running game, "game situation".

ANOTHER (related) QUESTION. In the past, we talked proudly about YPA (Yards Per Attempt) with Ben... He was always among the league leaders, regardless of OC (whiz, arians, etc).

Did he remain among the league leaders? Those who are estute in math, realize this isn't just factor of deep passes - if I go 10-for-10 on 6 yard passes, or 1-for-10 on 60 yard passes, i have the same YPA. Ideally, you want a nice balance of high-percentage passes, mixed in with a few calculated risks.

To me, it FELT like a much smaller YPA than usual. His completion percentage didn't seem significantly higher than the rest of his career...there were just a lot of shorter passes. People are acting like they never hit 3rd down, but, it didn't feel like that was significantly improved.. (OK, with that thought, i have to look this up and add to reply, but, i'm not rewriting - nice "flow of thought")

Career 2012 2011 Completion Percentage 63.1 63.3 63.2 YPA 7.93* 7.27 8.23 TEAM FIRST DOWNS 307 341

* This number is slightly over 8, excluding 2012.

I'm even blown away by the last one - I would have expected the dink and dunk to have netted more first downs. I guess it proves what i was thinking and where i was going with the YPA and completion percentage, though... The only thing that offense managed to do - was eliminate the deep ball. It didn't improve his completion percentage. It didn't net more first downs. And it obviously didn't keep him safe. Whew... I'm exhausted. But, I've totally convinced myself of what *i* saw to be exactly what happened...

[URL]http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/5536/ben-roethlisberger[/URL] (Ben's stats)
[URL]http://www.steelers.com/team/statistics.html[/URL] (Team stats)

You mix team stats (total first downs despite a horrid run game) Those stats include the horrid stretch when Ben was out
Ben's entire season stats (when the topic is pre-injury)

Pre injury he was on pace for 4,406 passing yards, 32 TDs, eight INTs and a 67 percent completion rate.

I dont even care about the yardage numbers, (the only ones affected by having to pass more).

Ben had a much higher pass percentage, TD "percentage", lower int percentage, fewer sacks, and was in EVERY WAY playing better than he had in YEARS pre-injury.
I do contend that Bens best season was Arians 1st season before the young money crew got Arians and Ben thinking long ball way too much.

[Shawn]

Proof as follows:

Before his Week 10 shoulder and rib woes, however, he was on pace for 4,406 passing yards, 32 TDs, eight INTs and a 67 percent completion rate.

[URL]http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/5536/ben-roethlisberger[/URL]

And that is elite by anyones playbook.

[flippy]

You mix team stats (total first downs despite a horrid run game) Those stats include the horrid stretch when Ben was out
Ben's entire season stats (when the topic is pre-injury)

Pre injury he was on pace for 4,406 passing yards, 32 TDs, eight INTs and a 67 percent completion rate.

I dont even care about the yardage numbers, (the only ones affected by having to pass more).

Ben had a much higher pass percentage, TD "percentage", lower int percentage, fewer sacks, and was in EVERY WAY playing better than he had in YEARS pre-injury.
I do contend that Bens best season was Arians 1st season before the young money crew got Arians and Ben thinking long ball way too much.

I think you're both a little right. Like the good captain points out, he was on an incredible pace with high TDs and low int %s. But like SOD was saying his YPA bottomed out and I do think the bad overall team performance meant he had to throw more and we were down at the end of some games and the league is a changing.

I asked the question because the answer feels a little confusing depending on how I look at Ben's performance. I still feel just as confused about the answer as I did before I asked the question. But thanks for sharing these perspectives.

Maybe we'll all learn a little more as we go into this season. Maybe Ben and Haley just need time together to figure out the secret sauce.

[Captain Lemming]

I think you're both a little right. Like the good captain points out, he was on an incredible pace with high TDs and low int %s. But like SOD was saying his YPA bottomed out and I do think the bad overall team performance meant he had to throw more and we were down at the end of some games and the league is a changing.

I asked the question because the answer feels a little confusing depending on how I look at Ben's performance. I still feel just as confused about the answer as I did before I asked the question. But thanks for sharing these perspectives.

Maybe we'll all learn a little more as we go into this season. Maybe Ben and Haley just need time together to figure out the secret sauce.

If by "Both" you mean me a Shawn....yes, we are both right.

Flippy your question was "why" was Ben having a great season.
SOD is not addressing that question, he is making a case that we are overselling how well Ben was playing.

Flippy look at the chart he posted. One season to the next, we arent goig back a decade.
I am not talking about how MUCH yards he threw for. That is meaningless.
A 32 TD to 8 int pace- That matters.

I want EFFECTIVE passing.
As I demonstated at length, the shorter passing LED to Ben's amzing 3rd down efficiency.
Even missing three games Ben STILL threw is most TDs since 07.
You think that is due to attempt?
Due to his missing games his pass attempt went DOWN and he STILL threw 26 TDs up from 21 in 2011.
Ben has bested the 26 TD passes last year only ONCE ever. Ben has had more attempts than this year many times.

The league is changing? Well passing records were broken by Brady and Brees in 2011 not in 2012.
Yet Ben got better BY FAR in 2013 especially before the injury.

[Oviedo]

If by "Both" you mean me a Shawn....yes, we are both right.

Flippy your question was "why" was Ben having a great season.
SOD is not addressing that question, he is making a case that we are overselling how well Ben was playing.

Flippy look at the chart he posted. One season to the next, we arent goig back a decade.
I am not talking about how MUCH yards he threw for. That is meaningless.
A 32 TD to 8 int pace- That matters.

I want EFFECTIVE passing.
As I demonstated at length, the shorter passing LED to Ben's amzing 3rd down efficiency.
Even missing three games Ben STILL threw is most TDs since 07.
You think that is due to attempt?
Due to his missing games his pass attempt went DOWN and he STILL threw 26 TDs up from 21 in 2011.
Ben has bested the 26 TD passes last year only ONCE ever. Ben has had more attempts than this year many times.

The league is changing? Well passing records were broken by Brady and Brees in 2011 not in 2012.
Yet Ben got better BY FAR in 2013 especially before the injury.

+1 Ben is better with the short passing than his fling it down the field insticts result in. The former is much better for the team because it keps the chains moving and wears down the opponents defense.

[Shawn]

Don't get me wrong, I want Ben to throw the rock downfield. But, I just don't want it to be a crutch or his bread n butter. You need a deep ball to take the top off. If you are running the ball well, and able to make the opposition respect your deep ball...you become very difficult to stop.

[Oviedo]

Don't get me wrong, I want Ben to throw the rock downfield. But, I just don't want it to be a crutch or his bread n butter. You need a deep ball to take the top off. If you are running the ball well, and able to make the opposition respect your deep ball...you become very difficult to stop.

I think you need the threat of the longball but you don't have to use it that often. I think you do much more waering down a defense but a consistent and effective short passing game which gets the LBs turning their backs to the LOS. This in turn keeps them off your QB and opens up lanes for the running game.

The longball is a low percentage play and while your WR is coming all the way back up field the defense gets time to reset and sub. Much harder to do when you are running a high tempo short passing attack.