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Next thing we'll do is look at some of the Steelers Free Agents, and what we might expect as far as contract offers coming to them.
Firstly, given that the Salary Cap will experience no significant increase, it is safe to suggest that contract values will not rise dramatically in 2013. Roughly what the #1 CB on the market last year should equate to what the #1 CB on the market this year gets.
Secondly, the Steelers are in no position to sign their FA's before FA begins. This means that each player entering UFA will likely find the value of their services dictated from outside the organisation- or 'market forces'. Praying for 'hometown discounts' might be pie in the sky.
Chadman will use the Walter Football "star ratings" to give a rough estimation, based on last season, on what our FA's might expect to recieve on the market:
CB Keenan Lewis (27yo)- At 27 years old, he's going to be a valued commodity. Walters gives Lewis 4 stars. Last season, both Brandon Carr (26yo) & Cortland Finnegan (28yo) were 4 star CB's. Both recieved 5 year $50m contracts. Lewis could realistically expect something in & around that figure.
Chadman estimate- 5 year, $50-$55m
WR Mike Wallace (27yo)- The 2 players we can use as a guide for Wallace are probably Desean Jackson & Laurent Robinson. If this was last season, the value of Jackson's contract would likely have been a touch lower than Wallace, but given events of 2012, we'll assume that Jackson is the highest contract area for Wallace, while Robinson the lowest point- based on age & productivity. Robinson signed a 5 year $32.5m contract for a guy that has a significantly thinner portfolio than Wallace, while Jackson signed a 5 year $51m contract. This is more likely the area Wallace will be looking.
Chadman estimate- 5 year $45-$55m
Ramon Foster (27yo)- The best examples for comparison to Foster might be Mike Brisiel who signed with the Raiders & Evan Mathis who re-signed with the Eagles. Both are slightly older than Foster is, so it might be safe to assume he'll be on the higher side of the comparison. Brisiel (who is inferior to Foster) signed a 5 year $20m contract to change teams, Mathis recieved a 5 year $25m to stay put. Expect Foster to get around that mark to switch teams.
Chadman estimate- 5 year $25m
Rashard Mendenhall (26yo)- Mendenhall is a funny one because injury might severely effect his contract numbers. The comparison players from last year will be Seattle's Marshawn Lynch & Chicago's Michael Bush. Lynch (superior to Mendy) got 4 years $32m, while Bush was signed with 4 years $14m. Mendenhall is likely more in the Bush range at this point. That said- he might be best served signing a short deal, proving himself, and looking for a bigger payday later.
Chadman estimate- 3 year $9m
Larry Foote (33yo)- Chadman's comparison for Foote is slightly different, in that the guys we'll compare Foote with are...less successful in FA, James Farrior & Keyaron Fox. Both struggled to garner much interest in FA, and Chadman expects Foote to be in a similar spot.
Chadman estimate- 1 year Vet Min
Max Starks (31yo)- Max will be compared to 2 OT's that sit younger than him in age- Breno Giacomini & Guy Whimper- both moderate level OT's that were marginal starting options for their teams. Giacomini got 2 years $6m while Whimper got 2 years $5m. Chadman believes Starks sit's slightly higher than both of these guys & will be valued accordingly. That said, there has been no real market for Max every year he has been a FA.
Chadman estimate- 3 years $8-$10m
That covers the main Steeler FA's. The rest should not generate that much FA interest- certainly not enough to cause the Steelers to scramble & sign them anyway.
Chances of keeping most of the FA's is very slim. Even if they WANT to keep Lewis, chances are the market will make this an enormous challenge. The Steelers might actually be better off targetting keeping Foote & Starks, given the cap situation.
Firstly, given that the Salary Cap will experience no significant increase, it is safe to suggest that contract values will not rise dramatically in 2013. Roughly what the #1 CB on the market last year should equate to what the #1 CB on the market this year gets.
Secondly, the Steelers are in no position to sign their FA's before FA begins. This means that each player entering UFA will likely find the value of their services dictated from outside the organisation- or 'market forces'. Praying for 'hometown discounts' might be pie in the sky.
Chadman will use the Walter Football "star ratings" to give a rough estimation, based on last season, on what our FA's might expect to recieve on the market:
CB Keenan Lewis (27yo)- At 27 years old, he's going to be a valued commodity. Walters gives Lewis 4 stars. Last season, both Brandon Carr (26yo) & Cortland Finnegan (28yo) were 4 star CB's. Both recieved 5 year $50m contracts. Lewis could realistically expect something in & around that figure.
Chadman estimate- 5 year, $50-$55m
WR Mike Wallace (27yo)- The 2 players we can use as a guide for Wallace are probably Desean Jackson & Laurent Robinson. If this was last season, the value of Jackson's contract would likely have been a touch lower than Wallace, but given events of 2012, we'll assume that Jackson is the highest contract area for Wallace, while Robinson the lowest point- based on age & productivity. Robinson signed a 5 year $32.5m contract for a guy that has a significantly thinner portfolio than Wallace, while Jackson signed a 5 year $51m contract. This is more likely the area Wallace will be looking.
Chadman estimate- 5 year $45-$55m
Ramon Foster (27yo)- The best examples for comparison to Foster might be Mike Brisiel who signed with the Raiders & Evan Mathis who re-signed with the Eagles. Both are slightly older than Foster is, so it might be safe to assume he'll be on the higher side of the comparison. Brisiel (who is inferior to Foster) signed a 5 year $20m contract to change teams, Mathis recieved a 5 year $25m to stay put. Expect Foster to get around that mark to switch teams.
Chadman estimate- 5 year $25m
Rashard Mendenhall (26yo)- Mendenhall is a funny one because injury might severely effect his contract numbers. The comparison players from last year will be Seattle's Marshawn Lynch & Chicago's Michael Bush. Lynch (superior to Mendy) got 4 years $32m, while Bush was signed with 4 years $14m. Mendenhall is likely more in the Bush range at this point. That said- he might be best served signing a short deal, proving himself, and looking for a bigger payday later.
Chadman estimate- 3 year $9m
Larry Foote (33yo)- Chadman's comparison for Foote is slightly different, in that the guys we'll compare Foote with are...less successful in FA, James Farrior & Keyaron Fox. Both struggled to garner much interest in FA, and Chadman expects Foote to be in a similar spot.
Chadman estimate- 1 year Vet Min
Max Starks (31yo)- Max will be compared to 2 OT's that sit younger than him in age- Breno Giacomini & Guy Whimper- both moderate level OT's that were marginal starting options for their teams. Giacomini got 2 years $6m while Whimper got 2 years $5m. Chadman believes Starks sit's slightly higher than both of these guys & will be valued accordingly. That said, there has been no real market for Max every year he has been a FA.
Chadman estimate- 3 years $8-$10m
That covers the main Steeler FA's. The rest should not generate that much FA interest- certainly not enough to cause the Steelers to scramble & sign them anyway.
Chances of keeping most of the FA's is very slim. Even if they WANT to keep Lewis, chances are the market will make this an enormous challenge. The Steelers might actually be better off targetting keeping Foote & Starks, given the cap situation.
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