Chadman's 2013 Off-Season Analysis Thread...

[Chadman]

Chadman has decided that the last Mock Draft start was.... off. Had a few days to really think this through, and Chadman has realised that the selections are slightly too.. risky... for a Steelers draft. Particularly early on- the Steelers rarely take a risk on a draft pick.

Also, Chadman has fallen into the trap of not looking at what has transpired previously over the last couple of seasons in regard to player recruitment & retention.

For example- the Steelers let James Harrison go this off season. How often do they let a player like Harrison leave if they are not comfortable with 'the next guy in line'? It's not like Worilds has failed miserably either, his 6 sacks last season, in limited opportunity, are quite an admirable feat, considering the success of Harrison & Woodley in comparison during 2012.

the Steelers will give Worilds every opportunity to succeed. That isn't to say they will not take an OLB at some point- the Steelers did, after all, point out that rushing the QB is an area that needs improving- but here's betting they are not about to draft Worilds' replacement right away before he gets the chance to play.

So what areas DO need strengthening? Obviously RB comes to mind. That said, the Steelers have looked at a few FA RB's, so it's conceivable that some help will come from that route. Still, Chadman expects an 'everydown' type RB to be selected at some point. WR? Yes, there is a need there for a 3rd WR type, or even a guy that moves Sanders or Brown back into that role. But given that the Steelers were so willing to move on from Wallace suggests that they are comfortable with Sanders moving into a starting role. The Steelers, after all, rarely take risks. Ta'amu's stupidity (after getting probation, he now posts a pic on twitter of him in a car with a bottle of whiskey? Really??) could lead the Steelers to re-investing in the NT position. They haven't, after all, given much guarentee to 'incumbant' Steve McLendon by leaving him exposed on a RFA tender with no compensation. Safety- yes, absolutely. And the fact that they have brought in 3-4 Safeties already for visits suggests they are certainly looking at new faces there. CB? Quite possibly. But not 'necessarily'. Losing Lewis has promoted Allen to the starting role. Gay was brought back to fill the 3rd CB role. How do the Steelers feel about Van Dyke? Brown? There might be a CB added, but Chadman isn't convinced they'll go that route early. Besides, under Tomlin/Colbert, they have never drafted CB higher than the 3rd round. OL? Potentially the wildcard position is OT, but are the Steelers willing to give up on Adams or Gilbert after such a short time? Will they draft an OT? Quite possibly- but is there one worthy of a high pick to the Steelers? There's a lot of love for TE, but do the Steelers use TE enough to carry 2 1st rounders at the position? And at 31, is Heath Miller even close to finishing? Lastly, ILB. They looked at the future when they drafted Sean Spence, but the poor dude might never see the field after his injury. Depth at ILB is.. poor at best with Spence unfit. Foote can't play forever..

[Chadman]

ROUND 1


ARTHUR BROWN

ILB

KANSAS ST (BIG 12)

6'1" 241lbs

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The Steelers have quite clearly identified LB as a position to upgrade. Why Brown? Simply- he's about as safe a prospect as you'll find. Very few weaknesses. Very athletic. In fact, the last time they drafted an ILB in the 1st round, they got what Mike Tomlin called a 'run & hit' guy- athletic & physical. Guess what- in Brown they have a 2nd guy like that.

Strengths: Instinctive, physical defender who, other than his lack of ideal size, ranks among the surest prospects of the 2013 draft. Possesses excellent key and diagnosis skills. Often takes his initial step toward where the play is designed to go before the quarterback has finished taking the snap. Possesses explosive, active hands to quickly slip blocks and plays with excellent leverage, bending at the knees to consistently get under the pads of would-be blockers and pushing them aside to make the play in the hole. Very good balance to avoid cut blocks and when knocked to the ground; remarkably quick in popping back up. Very good sideline to sideline speed, which could allow him to remain at inside linebacker in the NFL. Drops back into coverage fluidly, demonstrating not only the athleticism but the awareness to handle this responsibility in the NFL. Times his blitz well with the snap, showing the flexibility to slip past blockers, flatten out and close on the quarterback.


Weaknesses: Obvious size concerns, though he plays much bigger than he looks. Tendency to take on blocks with alternating shoulders, putting him in excellent position to slip off and make tackles but also could be jeopardizing the long-term health of his body, especially considering his relative lack of size in the first place. Stands out on tape for his size, physicality and open-field tackling, but hasn't proven to be much of a playmaker over his career, posting "just" three interceptions and not a single forced fumble over his collegiate career. Struggles while at Miami open up concerns about how well he'll handle the jump to an NFL team further from home.

COMPARES TO: Curtis Lofton, ILB, New Orleans Saints -- Like Lofton, Brown plays bigger than he looks and will quickly prove himself to be a vacuum tackler in the NFL. To emerge as one of the elite at their position, however, each has to show a greater ability to cause turnovers.

[Chadman]

ROUND 2


MATT ELAM

SS

FLORIDA (SEC)

5'10 208lbs

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Now, granted- he might be gone by the time the Steelers pick in the 2nd. That said, because of the depth at Safety in this draft, it's not beyond belief that he might drop behind 1 or 2 of the other Safeties & land about here. Chadman's guessing (hoping) that is the case. Elam is an instinctive playmaker who the Steelers could use from Day 1 in situational play.

Strengths: Athletic, instinctive and quite physical, Elam demonstrated the ability to walk up into the box and be a force near the line of scrimmage while also dropping back into coverage as a single-high safety when coaches called for it -- showing off the type of versatility NFL teams are demanding from today's hybrid safeties.

Drops down to cover slot receivers, getting a strong initial jam on them and riding them throughout the first few yards aggressively. Shows good vision and anticipation when fighting through blocks near the line of scrimmage and is generally a reliable, physical tackler. He brings his hips as a hitter, showing the closing speed and raw power to generate explosiveness.

Shows savvy to complement his physical talents, using his hands to knock away passes at the last moment and avoiding blocks with patience and vision rather than simply attempting to out-physical his opponents at every opportunity. High-effort player who seems to love the game. Quality special teams performer. Voted a team captain in 2012.


Weaknesses: Lacks preferred size for the position. Too often loses out on 50-50 balls, being forced to attempt to rip away at the hands of the receiver as he attempts to come down with the catch. Highly aggressive downhill tackler who can come in too hot and lose control, leaving cut-back lanes.

Tends to lead with his shoulder and will leave his feet to make the lights-out hit, resulting in some ugly lunges and misses. Good, not great lateral agility and can get left grasping at air. The same good, not great lateral agility shows up in coverage where Elam can lose positioning against slot receivers, though he does have a nice burst to close quickly.

Has twice had run-ins with police regarding minor in possession offenses involving alcohol (July 2010, July 2011).

Compares To: Charles Godfrey, SS, Carolina Panthers -- Godfrey, a former cornerback at Iowa, has emerged as a rock-solid safety for the Panthers and one known for his physical play. Elam has a similar frame, game and mind-set. He has a knack of making big plays at critical moments and therefore could ultimately earn some Troy Polamalu comparisons, but he'll need to clean up his open-field tackling skills to earn that kind of lofty praise.

[Chadman]

ROUND 3


BRANDON WILLIAMS

NT

MISSOURI SOUTHERN ST (MAIAA)

6'1" 335lbs

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The Steelers sent a large group of coaches to see this guy at his Pro Day. His level of competition is a concern, however, at the Senior Bowl he was easily one of the more dominant DT's on display, outplaying some highly regarded OL players more often than not. The Steelers need to upgrade the pass rush, and watching the tape on this guy, they could have a bull at NT who could certainly help in that regard.

Strengths: Broad-shouldered and bulked up, especially in his upper body. Possesses the upper-body strength to shove opponents into the backfield and disrupt plays before they even have a chance to begin. Has enough short area quickness to slice through gaps. Possesses longer arms (32 3/4) than expected given his stout frame, which he uses well to keep offensive linemen off of him. Strong, heavy hands. Experienced playing on the nose, defensive tackle and out wide as a five-technique defensive end and has the length and awareness to be similarly versatile in the NFL. Good recognition of screens and draws. Surprisingly light feet and balance to move laterally through the trash and shows enough phone-booth quickness to close. Good strength and aggression for the pull-down tackle. Gets his hands up in passing lanes to provide quarterbacks with narrow lanes and has good hand-eye coordination and timing to tip passes. Enjoyed an impressive week of practice at the Senior Bowl.


Weaknesses: Possesses a disproportionately top-heavy build and a thinner than ideal lower body, which makes him less effective as a run-stuffing presence than he might appear "on the hoof." While active for his size, is not a quick-twitch athlete capable of providing a consistent pass rush in the NFL. Possesses only phone-booth quickness and lacks sustained speed, effort to travel far. Must do a better job of keeping his hands active, as he too often remains blocked when his initial bull rush or first step are handled. Missed the 2009 season due to injury.

Compares To: Antonio Garay, NG, San Diego Chargers -- It was Garay's struggles with injuries that pushed him down draft boards rather than level of competition questions, but like the former Boston College standout, Williams' wide body and strength could make him a quality run-stuffer at the next level.

[Chadman]

ROUND 4


KNILE DAVIS

RB

ARKANSAS (SEC)

6'0" 227lbs

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The Steelers are going to want a RB that can carry the load. Davis had an extraordinary Combine & really put himself on the map as far as this draft goes. It could be that he is gone by this point, and RB's like LeVeon Bell or Montee Ball might be decent fallback plans, but given the size/speed ratio of Davis, here's betting the Steelers see Mendenhall's replacement in him.

Strengths: Scouts like Davis' size, breakaway speed and soft hands out of the backfield. He's worked hard to become a reliable pass blocker and is highly respected by his teammates and the coaching staff, earning the captain role as both a junior (2011) and senior (2012).


Weaknesses: He is a bit stiff, especially in his upper body, and has struggled with ankle injuries throughout his football career, dating back to high school.

Compares To: Darren McFadden, Raiders - Like McFadden, Davis has good size and speed - at least pre-injury. But he also runs with a relatively high-center of gravity, which causes him to run a bit upright and absorb big hits from defenders.

[Chadman]

ROUND 5


RODNEY SMITH

WR

FLORIDA ST (ACC)

6'5" 225lbs

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The Steelers were out in force at the FSU Pro Day, including OC Todd Haley. Mike Tomlin has often said that the Steelers could look to replace Mike Wallace with 'another fast guy, or a bigger guy, a different type of animal'. Here's your different type of animal. The Steelers have tried & failed to supply Ben a decent "Big Target" & this guy might just be that guy.

Strengths: Good combination of size and athleticism for the position. Does a good job of location and adjusting his lanky but fluid frame to make a play on the ball. Long arms and catching radius. Long-strider and eats up yards in a hurry. Very good effort as a blocker. Catch in 30 straight games with natural body control to adjust to off-target throws.

Weaknesses: Struggles to play up to his size and needs to do a better job finishing downfield. Very lean frame and needs to add bulk and looks like a twig. Too often doesn't complete catches or allows the defensive back to out-muscle him. Inconsistent focus at times catching the ball and needs to improve his routes, working back to the ball.

[Chadman]

ROUND 6a)


STANSLEY MAPONGA

OLB

TCU (BIG 12)

6'2" 256lbs

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The Steelers will want some depth added at OLB this season with James Harrison moving on. The Steelers went to TCU's Pro Day & put Maponga through his drills. Kind of an under rated pass rusher that seems very strong for his size.

STRENGTHS: Natural edge rusher who displayed natural pass rush skills. He is quick off the snap, shows good flexibility to react to cut blocks and is more stout at the point of attack than his size might indicate due to his natural leverage advantage and good upper strength. Maponga also shows strong, active hands, which he uses well to defeat blocks and knock the ball free. He has forced seven fumbles over the past two seasons.
WEAKNESSES: Too short to remain at defensive end for some NFL schemes. The lack of success former TCU edge rushers (Jerry Hughes, Bo Schobel) have enjoyed in the NFL could give decision-makers pause on draft day.

[Chadman]

ROUND 6b)


MICAH HYDE

CB

IOWA (BIG 10)

6'0" 197lbs

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The Steelers will probably want to look for some kind of insurance at CB now that Lewis has moved on. Because there are a number of young CB's on the roster, Chadman suspects a late round pick is more the direction the Steelers will go- looking for an athlete that can be developed with little real investment in the player in case it doesn't work out. Hyde is the perfect size for a LeBeau CB, and plays a very nice style of football, with a nice mix of big plays & physicality to be a shot at making the team.

Moved from cornerback to free safety during 2011 spring practice and played both positions in 2011 . . . holds eighth and 10th longest interception returns in school history . . . tied for first in the Big Ten in passes defended (11) and tied for eighth in interceptions (three) in 2011 . . . had 72-yard touchdown return vs. Missouri and 66-yard touchdown return vs. Michigan State, both in 2010 . . . one of five juniors named to 2011 Leadership Group . . . one of three true freshmen to see action in 2009.

[Chadman]

ROUND 7


DAIMION STAFFORD

FS

NEBRASKA (BIG 10)

6'1" 221lbs

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Carnell Lake was on hand at Nebraska's Pro Day to watch Stafford. He's a big, physical type of player that would fit the Ryan Clark role very well as a backfield enforcer type, with just enough 'big play' in him to be dangerous.

Stafford is a smooth athlete with the flexibility and foot speed to accelerate in a flash and blow up plays with his aggressive attitude. He uses his eyes well with the football awareness to break down the action and waste little time making accurate reads in both run and pass coverage. Former Nebraska linebacker Lavonte David was another JUCO transfer and became a second round pick after two seasons in Lincoln. Stafford isn't at the same level as David, but will try and follow that same path.

[Chadman]

The whole Manny Sanders to New England thing might impact not only the Draft, but also what the Steelers do pre-draft.

Pretty sure that the Steelers had focussed on drafting a LB, Safety, WR or RB in the 1st 3 rounds, knowing that while all 3 could contribute, they wouldn't necessarily HAVE to contribute. With Sanders potentially moving on, this is not entirely the case. A WR will most likely HAVE to contribute in some way. That means, potentially, a top 2 round selection on a WR.

Chadman thinks this might strengthen the case to sign Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw would be required to start, or at least split carries, from Day 1. This takes the pressure off any rookie RB, as well as the Steelers FO needing to find an RB that has to contribute early. In other words- they could then drop RB down a Round or 2.

[Rara]

I just hope they don't panic and draft a wide receiver for the sake of drafting one in the first.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

My suspicion is the WR they take won't be a project like Patterson, but, someone who is polished and can contribute right away...

[Chadman]

Ok, so Sanders stays, Bradshaw is out of the Steelers price range, and Draft Boards a re re-written all over again.


As we rapidly close in, the 1st round option is STILL murky. The next thing Chadman will look at is 1st round possible targets, and why we might need to scrap some of the more favoured ones from this board...

[Chadman]

We are now roughly 4 days from Day 1 of the Draft.

Chadman is busily putting together his final mock, using a bunch of stuff from in here, as well as some serious guess-work. Pretty sure Chadman has his 1st round targets down to 3-4 guys.

Feel free to post your mocks, or just general thoughts about the draft in here....

[Chadman]

Ok, it's time to give "CHADMAN'S FINAL MOCK OF 2013"...


After the 'success' of last season's mock, it'll be difficult to get even close to that. Like every other year, Chadman will not predict trades either up or down as it's nearly impossible to do so with any accuracy. That said, there is every chance the Steelers will look to move down in at least 1 round, perhaps more, in order to accumulate picks.


Alright....here we go, for one last shot at it..



ROUND 1.

XAVIER RHODES
CB
FLORIDA STATE (ACC)
6'2" 210lbs

Why Rhodes? Because he meets so many criteria. He played in the right Conference (ACC), he played for a big school, he passed so many measurable markers at the Combine, he's the big, physical type of CB that the Steelers like, and... he's the right age (22).

Watching him it's obvious he doesn't mind being physical, which should suit the Steelers run defense heavy style of play, and he has some impressive ball skills.

The Steelers have moved Cortez Allen into 1 starting CB role, but with Ike moving into the twilight years, now is a good time to find his replacement.

Chadman is betting that the Steelers will not stray too far from their usual draft plan- get young players that have performed against the best. Be athletic. Find someone to fit the 'Steelers way'. Rhodes does this on many levels.

If Rhodes is off the board, Desmond Trufant certainly gets consideration, as do the 2 OG's Cooper & Warmack. Sneaky option might be Arthur Brown.




ROUND 2.

KHASEEM GREENE
ILB
Rutgers (Big East)
6'1" 241lbs


There's a lot to like about Greene- his aggressive style of play, the way he flies about the field, the tackles in the backfield, the way he wins one-on-one battles.

No character concerns, and along with Steve Beauharnais, was a team leader at Rutgers. Made plays all the time it would seem.

Didn't blow up the Combine as far as measurables go, but he was solid.

On the field, he's fast & effective. He's a player that can dictate a play. After having last year's ILB option Sean Spence struck down with that knee injury, ILB is back on the draft board again. Foote can't play forever, so his eventual replacement must be found soon.



ROUND 3.


MONTEE BALL
RB
WISCONSIN (Big 10)
5'11" 214lbs


Ball has so much production behind him that it would seem obvious as to his value here. That said, there are always questions regarding the RB's coming out of Wisconsin on if they are just a product of the system. Not sure if that applies to Ball. His speed to the LOS is quite good, he seems capable of finding the right hole to run to.

Steelers showed some early interest in Ball at the Combine, having one of their interviews with him.

The running game in Pittsburgh is far from settled, with the 2 plodders Dwyer & Redman rotating carries. Having a faster, more agile type of RB to help carry the load will keep them fresh.


ROUND 4.

TONY JEFFERSON
FS
OKLAHOMA (Big 12)
5'11" 213lbs


Jefferson is a hard nosed, tough hitting style of FS- quite similar to our own Ryan Clark, which is a good thing, because Clark is 34 & doesn't have long left in the NFL.

Watching him you notice his closing speed on the ball carrier is good, and that he seems to read the play very well, resulting in numerous plays in the backfield.

Steelers had a good sized contingent at Oklahoma's Pro Day, so they are well aware of his abilities. His style of play will allow him to flip-flop his role from FS to SS in Pittsburgh, as LeBeau has often said that the positions are interchangable in his defense.


ROUND 5.


TAVARRES KING
WR
GEORGIA (SEC)
6'0" 189lbs

Chadman was tempted to select Tony Jefferson's mate Kenny Stills here, but Stills has some maturity concerns, while King is a solid citizen. He's also a good route runner, smooth catcher of the ball & sneaky quick.

If Brown & Sanders are #1 & #2, the Steelers will need their savvy slot guy, and King can provide that- perhaps more in time.

Looked very good at the Senior Bowl.



ROUND 6a.


DENARD ROBINSON
WR/RB
MICHIGAN (Big 10)
5'11" 199lbs

Now, bare with Chadman here. Back-to-back WR's might seem like overkill, particularly to the pro-TE crowd. But Robinson is a bit more valuable than just another WR.

There are comparisons between Robinson & Antwaan Randle El, which are fair, to a degree, but a cheap & easy comparison (QB to WR). Robinson is actually more of a RB than a true WR. His official role might say WR, but in reality- he's a bit more like Darren Sproles, or Dexter McCluster- a RB than can split out to play the slot, or play the 3rd down role, or do some KR/PR.

Essentially, Robinson can contribute right away on ST's, as well as become the 3rd down RB (Steelers lack one) while giving some depth at WR.

He passed many of the historical Steelers measurable requirements, and is a solid character guy.


ROUND 6b.


BRANDON JENKINS
OLB
FLORIDA STATE (ACC)
6'3" 251lbs


Jenkins foot injury robbed him of his final year in college, but before his injury he was one of Florida St's best defensive players.

Fast off the snap, good use of hands, good closing speed.

The Steelers will give Jason Worilds every chance to succeed, but they'll still need a bit of quality depth.



ROUND 7.


EARL WOLFF
SS
NORTH CAROLINA ST (ACC)
5'11" 209lbs


Wolff is a very solid player with good technique. Not overly fast, but not slow. Seems to know where the ball is going & finds a way to be there or close to there.

Trying to replace Troy Polamalu with a player like Troy Polamalu is insane. Can't be done, or at least, very unlikely to be done. Wolff is a far safer prospect with a lower ceiling.

Watching his highlights, it's easy to notice that he's around the ball alot- a sign perhaps of a player that knows where he's meant to be, and why.

Safe pick.