Predictions on Mike Wallace Contract?

[flippy]

Any one have a prediction on what will happen?

Will he sign? For how much?

If he signs the tender, the Steelers can have him for $2.7M this year and $9.4M+ for the next couple of years by franchising him. So up until 6/15, we can have him for the next 3 years for $21.5M with no guarateed money.

After 6/15, we can have him for about $19.5M with no upfront/guaranteed money.

So let's say the Steelers use that as the starting point. To lock in some of those dollars now, the Steelers probably want more than 3 years. Those are big numbers, so let's say 5 or 6 years. And we're probably looking at 5 years and $40M.

Given that Desean Jackson did 5 years for $50M, that seems about fair. Remember Desean had the $9.4M franchise contract vs Wallace's $2.7M contract.

Now at 5 years, he probably only deserves the $2.7M upfront relative to Desean's contract.

So the Steelers probably would need another year to justify a bigger guaranteed money. An extra year might justify an extra $10M.

So let's say 6 years - $50M with $12M guaranteed. That seems reasonable, but it might be a little high to spend on 1 WR given that we've got other talented WRs that we're gonna have to pay.

So the Steelers should probably try to scale it back a little. Because if we just go the franchise route, we can see how the other WRs develop and Wallace becomes less valuable over time and a year to year contract may even be a better route.

So I say drop it to 6 years, $42M with $12M guaranteed.

[Crash]

Whoa....if he signs the franchise tender and they cut him after one game? You must pay him. So basically that money would be guaranteed, no?

[flippy]

Whoa....if he signs the franchise tender and they cut him after one game? You must pay him. So basically that money would be guaranteed, no?

That's why I gave him the $12M guaranteed in my final number vs Desean's $10M. I'd justify it as $9.4M for the extra year + $2.7M for this year's tender.

I was trying to say there'd be no upfront money for Wallace if he signs the tender.

[Oviedo]

Any one have a prediction on what will happen?

Will he sign? For how much?

If he signs the tender, the Steelers can have him for $2.7M this year and $9.4M+ for the next couple of years by franchising him. So up until 6/15, we can have him for the next 3 years for $21.5M with no guarateed money.

After 6/15, we can have him for about $19.5M with no upfront/guaranteed money.

So let's say the Steelers use that as the starting point. To lock in some of those dollars now, the Steelers probably want more than 3 years. Those are big numbers, so let's say 5 or 6 years. And we're probably looking at 5 years and $40M.

Given that Desean Jackson did 5 years for $50M, that seems about fair. Remember Desean had the $9.4M franchise contract vs Wallace's $2.7M contract.

Now at 5 years, he probably only deserves the $2.7M upfront relative to Desean's contract.

So the Steelers probably would need another year to justify a bigger guaranteed money. An extra year might justify an extra $10M.

So let's say 6 years - $50M with $12M guaranteed. That seems reasonable, but it might be a little high to spend on 1 WR given that we've got other talented WRs that we're gonna have to pay.

So the Steelers should probably try to scale it back a little. Because if we just go the franchise route, we can see how the other WRs develop and Wallace becomes less valuable over time and a year to year contract may even be a better route.

So I say drop it to 6 years, $42M with $12M guaranteed.

The numbers you recommend all but guarantees to lose Brown and/or Sanders. Not worth it. If over $7.5M per year it is better some other team pays it.

I would offer 5 years/$30M with $15M guaranteed. It's about the guaranteed money not the total value. Give him more guaranteed in exchange for a smaller annual cap hit.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Give him more guaranteed in exchange for a smaller annual cap hit.

The team would rather not guarantee half of his total contact from the start if they could avoid it...I'd rather a larger base salary and less guaranteed dollars (but Mike would prefer the opposite, obviously)...remember, you can always restructure his contact in the future like they did with Ben and others recently...those guys got exactly what you said by restructuring...more guaranteed in exchange for a smaller annual cap hit.

[hawaiiansteel]

I would offer 5 years/$30M with $15M guaranteed.

you can offer Wallace that but he's not going to accept it, those numbers aren't even in the ball park of what Wallace will settle for.

[Crash]

If he signs I say 5 years $42 mil $20 mil guaranteed.

It's not going to be cheap.

[MeetJoeGreene]

I personally think he won't sign for less than 50 mill total.
6 years.
20-25 guaranteed

[phillyesq]

If he signs I say 5 years $42 mil $20 mil guaranteed.

It's not going to be cheap.

That's actually a pretty good ballpark.

Steve Johnson: 5 years, $36.5 million, $19.5 million guaranteed
DeSean Jackson: 5 years, $ 51 million, $15 million guaranteed

Both these guys have one more year of service time, and thus more leverage.

The Woodley and Timmons deals may also be points of negotiation if you are Wallace's agent.

I'll go out on a limb and say something like 6 years, 60 million, with maybe $15-20 million guaranteed, and the last year being a dummy year at $15 million (and making the real value of the deal 5 years, 45 million).

[pittpete]

Wallace signs his tender and has a sub-par year.
(Even Ben says we are going to run the ball more)
The Steelers realize Wallace is just a 1-trick pony,dont franchise him and some other team overpays him next year.
Brown and Sanders sign long term deals for a lot less $$$$ and have long productive careers as Steelers

[hawaiiansteel]

So I say drop it to 6 years, $42M with $12M guaranteed.

here are Larry Fitzgerald's contract terms:


8 years / $120,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $50,000,000

since Wallace wants Larry Fitzgerald $, what makes you think Wallace would ever accept only $12 million in guaranteed money?

[RuthlessBurgher]

The Steelers decide that they don't want to pay Wallace Fitz-money...Wallace signs his RFA tender so he can be traded to a team that will. After trading away Brandon Marshall, the Dolphins starting wideouts are Devone Bess and Brian Hartline, and his shiny new QB toy Ryan Tannehill needs a new toy to play with. Miami owner Stephen Ross cares about his team's profile more than winning, so wants to bring in an exciting player to profile on Hard Knocks (speed is sexy for TV...big uglies like Long and Pouncey are not sexy...they are just darn good football players). Jake Long's contract is up after this year...is Ross willing to pay top dollar to keep his Pro Bowl LT when he could spend big money for a more explosive type of player instead? He just drafted Stanford LT Jonathan Martin in the second round, who could replace Long. The Steelers trade Mike Wallace, Mike Adams, Willie Colon, and Doug Legursky to Miami for Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. The Dolphins pay Wallace Fitz-money. The Steelers pay Long Fitz-money.

Steelers OL: Long-Pouncey-Pouncey-DeCastro-Gilbert
Steelers WR: Brown-Sanders-Cotchery

Dolphins OL: Martin-Incognito-Legursky-Colon-Adams
Dolphins WR: Wallace-Bess-Hartline

[squidkid]

Wallace signs his tender and has a sub-par year.
(Even Ben says we are going to run the ball more)
The Steelers realize Wallace is just a 1-trick pony,dont franchise him and some other team overpays him next year.
Brown and Sanders sign long term deals for a lot less $$$$ and have long productive careers as Steelers

add in that we dont even miss him................ala burress and holmes

[flippy]

here are Larry Fitzgerald's contract terms:


8 years / $120,000,000 - Guaranteed Money $50,000,000

since Wallace wants Larry Fitzgerald $, what makes you think Wallace would ever accept only $12 million in guaranteed money?

It's as much as he'd get this year + franchised next year, so that's where I'd cap it. And even that might be high. So Wallace can wait for his money or to be traded.

It'd be a great deal to get some money now. Plus the Steelers have the upper hand with Brown, Cotchery, Sanders, and Heath as receiving options. They don't need to blow their wad on Wallace.

So I'd see this offer as overpaying and being more than fair to Wallace. If he can get more, good for him. I just don't see why the Steelers would do it.

[papillon]

The Steelers decide that they don't want to pay Wallace Fitz-money...Wallace signs his RFA tender so he can be traded to a team that will. After trading away Brandon Marshall, the Dolphins starting wideouts are Devone Bess and Brian Hartline, and his shiny new QB toy Ryan Tannehill needs a new toy to play with. Miami owner Stephen Ross cares about his team's profile more than winning, so wants to bring in an exciting player to profile on Hard Knocks (speed is sexy for TV...big uglies like Long and Pouncey are not sexy...they are just darn good football players). Jake Long's contract is up after this year...is Ross willing to pay top dollar to keep his Pro Bowl LT when he could spend big money for a more explosive type of player instead? He just drafted Stanford LT Jonathan Martin in the second round, who could replace Long. The Steelers trade Mike Wallace, Mike Adams, Willie Colon, and Doug Legursky to Miami for Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. The Dolphins pay Wallace Fitz-money. The Steelers pay Long Fitz-money.

Steelers OL: Long-Pouncey-Pouncey-DeCastro-Gilbert
Steelers WR: Brown-Sanders-Cotchery

Dolphins OL: Martin-Incognito-Legursky-Colon-Adams
Dolphins WR: Wallace-Bess-Hartline

This would be fine by me for sure, highly unlikely, but would work for both teams. Wallace is (IMO) over estimating his worth based on his three seasons playing with a future HOF quarterback. Ben made Wallace better, not vice versa. Fitz would make an already very good Ben into the most dangerous quarterback in the league with his ability to go up and catch passes in traffic. Wallace will cause Tannehill's career to be short.

Pappy