Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

[Chadman]

Now we'll switch over to the Defense, and in particular, the DE position. Chadman will show players selected that were ranked as DE's as they entered the draft- we won't be seperating 4-3 DE's from 3-4 OLB's in other words.

DE's
2011- 6 selected- #7, #11, #14, #20, #24, #31
2010- 3 selected- #10, #15, #16
2009- 3 selected- #3, #11, #18
2008- 4 selected- #2, #6, #8, #28
2007- 5 selected- #4, #8, #13, #17, #26

21 DE's selected in 5 years at an average of just over 4 per year. Of the 4 selected per year, the 3rd best DE is generally off the board by Pick 20. So, not only is this a position that is selected often, it's also selected high. 16 of 21 picks have been Top 20- that's quite a strike rate. It also shows that the NFL values pass rushers/pocket collapsers very highly.

[Chadman]

Continuing with our Defensive Line selections, we turn our eyes inside toward the DT's. This will not seperate NT's from 4-3 DT's, or even 3-4 DE's- it's simply looking at players that were considered DT's as they entered the Draft.

DT's
2011- 5 selected- #3, #13, #18, #21, #30
2010- 4 selected- #2, #3, #26, #28
2009- 3 selected- #9, #24, #32
2008- 3 selected- #5, #7, #29
2007- 2 selected- #10, #16

17 selected in 5 years at an average of 3-4 DT's per year. 10 of the 17 were Top 20 selections. Another position that obviously holds a lot of importance as far as NFL teams see things in Round 1.

[Chadman]

Moving on we now turn our eyes to the more athlteic players of the Defense's Front 7- the LB's. For the purpose of this thread, we'll combine ILB's & OLB's as they can be interchangable in many systems.

LB's
2011- 2 selected- #2, #16
2010- 4 selected- #8, #13, #19, #31
2009- 5 selected- #4, #13, #15, #16, #26
2008- 2 selected- #9, #10
2007- 3 selected- #11, #15, #25

16 selected, which puts LB in line with DT at 3-4 per year (closer to 3). Interestingly- 13 of the 16 are Top 20 picks- that makes for a lot of DE's, DT's & LB's being selected Top 20 every year.

[Chadman]

Lastly, we turn our eyes to the DB's. Again, we won't seperate CB's from Safeties as some CB's can play FS in different systems.

DB's
2011- 3 selected- #5, #19, #27
2010- 7 selected- #5, #7, #14, #20, #27, #29, #32
2009- 2 selected- #14, #25
2008- 6 selected- #11, #16, #20, #25, #27, #31
2007- 7 selected- #6, #14, #18, #19, #20, #21, #24

25 DB's selected in 5 years has them sitting at the average of 5 per year. While only 4 of the 25 were Top 10 picks, 12 of the 25 are Top 20 picks- pretty much half. Interestingly, in 2007 6 WR's were selected in Round 1. In 2008, 6 DB's were selected in Round 1. In 2009 6 WR's were selected in Round 1. In 2010, 7 DB's were selected in Round 1. Reactionary? Well, in 2008, 0 WR's were selected in Round 1. In 2009 only 2 DB's were selected. 2010, only 2 WR's selected. 2011, 3 DB's..2011- 3 WR's.....2012- DB's?? Chadman might predict slightly lower than average- perhaps 4 DB's?

[Chadman]

Now, let's not kid ourselves- some of you are now asking "what was the point of that?". Well, let's see...now we can use history to identify a rough estimate of what positions should be selected in Round 1- we'll shoot on the low side of each average-
2 QB's
2 RB's
3 WR's
0 TE's
0 OC's
1 OG
5 OT's
4 DE's
3 DT's
3 LB's
5 DB's

That's 28 of the 32 picks, position-wise, that should be selected on average. The "half" selections will fill the other 4 picks in....

Chadman's History Related Round 1 mock....

[insanesteelersfan]

Mike Adams would be the worst player we could ever select in round 1, with the exception of Vontaze Burfict. He is slow, weak, and gives up on too many plays. I wouldn't touch this clown in the 3rd round. Let alone the 1st. Same with Martin in round 2...way too high. And there are better safeties further down the draft who can be better.

[Chadman]

We'll now look at the players that fill our "Historic" needs..(that is- the top rated prospects in each position & +1 more than is historically chosen, in order to fill the missing 4 picks)

QB's (3)- Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill
RB's (3)- Trent Richardson, David Wilson, Doug Martin/ Lamar Miller
WR's (4)- Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle/Stephen Hill/Alshon Jeffery
TE's (1)- Coby Fleener
OC's (1)- Peter Konz
OG's (2)- David DeCastro, Cordy Glenn
OT's (5)- Matt Kalil, Riley Reiff, Jonathon Martin, Mike Adams, Zebrie Sanders
DE's (5)- Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram, Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry, Andre Branch
DT's (5)- Dontari Poe, Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers, Devon Still, Jerel Worthy
LB's (4)- Dont'e Hightower, Luke Keuchly, Courtney Upshaw, Zach Brown
DB's (5)- Morris Claiborne, Dre Kirkpatrick, Stephon Gilmore, Janoris Jenkins, Mark Barron

That gives us 38 players to fit into 32 positions...

[Chadman]

Mike Adams would be the worst player we could ever select in round 1, with the exception of Vontaze Burfict. He is slow, weak, and gives up on too many plays. I wouldn't touch this clown in the 3rd round. Let alone the 1st. Same with Martin in round 2...way too high. And there are better safeties further down the draft who can be better.

Yeah- but what do you REALLY think of Chadman's mock?

[Chadman]

Next step is to list each team's "Draft Needs". Chadman will name 3 positions for each team, except for Indianapolis & Washington..

1. Indianapolis- QB
2. Washington- QB
3. Minnesota- LT/CB/WR
4. Cleveland- QB/WR/OT
5. Tampa Bay- CB/LB/OT
6. St Louis- OT/WR/DT
7. Jacksonville- WR/CB/DE
8. Miami- QB/WR/OT
9. Carolina- DT/CB/OG
10. Buffalo- DE/WR/OT
11. Kansas City- NT/OG/OC
12. Seattle- DE/OG/LB
13. Arizona- OT/WR/LB
14. Dallas- DT/OC/OG
15. Philadelphia- LB/CB/SS
16. New York Jets- OT/LB/S
17. Cincinnati- RB/OG/WR/DE
18. San Diego- OT/OG/CB
19. Chicago- OT/CB/OG
20. Tennessee- OC/DE/OG
21. Cincinnati- RB/OG/WR/DE
22. Cleveland- QB/WR/OT
23. Detroit- CB/SS/OC
24. Pittsburgh- DT/OG/LB
25. Denver- DT/CB/OT
26. Houston- WR/DE/OC
27. New England- LB/DE/S
28. Green Bay- LB/DE/OC
29. Baltimore- LB/OG/S
30. San Fransico- OT/DE/TE
31. New England- LB/DE/S
32. New York Giants- OG/LB/RB

[Chadman]

So now, using HISTORY as a guide, here's is Chadman's 2012 NFL Mock 1st Round!! (Bells, whistles, girls in short skirts etc)

1. Colts- QB Andrew Luck
2. Redskins- QB Robert Griffin III
3. Vikings- OT Matt Kalil
4. Browns- WR Justin Blackmon
5. Buccaneers- CB Morris Claiborne
6. Rams- OT Reilly Reiff
7. Jaguars- DE Quinton Coples
8. Dolphins- QB Ryan Tannehill
9. Panthers- DT Dontari Poe
10. Bills- DE Whitney Mercilus
11. Chiefs- OG David DeCastro
12. Seahawks- OLB Melvin Ingram
13. Cardinals- WR Michael Floyd
14. Cowboys- DT Michael Brockers
15. Eagles- LB Luke Kuechley
16. Jets- OT Jonathon Martin
17. Bengals- RB Trent Richardson
18. Chargers- CB Dre Kirkpatrick
19. Bears- CB Stephon Gilmore
20. Titans- DE Whitney Mercilus
21. Bengals- OG Cordy Glenn
22. Browns- WR Kendall Wright
23. Lions- CB Janoris Jenkins
24. Steelers- DT Fletcher Cox
25. Broncos- DT Devon Still
26. Texans- WR Reuben Randle
27. Patriots- LB Courtney Upshaw
28. Packers- DE Nick Perry
29. Ravens- LB Dant'a Hightower
30. 49ers- TE Coby Fleener
31. Patriots- SS Mark Barron
32. Giants- RB David Wilson

[Chadman]

With this mock we get:
3 QB's (1 above average)
2 RB's (average)
4 WR's (average)
1 TE (1 above average)
0 OC (average)
2 OG's (1 above average)
3 OT's (2 below average)
4 DE's (average)
4 DT's (average)
4 LB's (average)
5 DB's (average)

[RuthlessBurgher]

So now, using HISTORY as a guide, here's is Chadman's 2012 NFL Mock 1st Round!! (Bells, whistles, girls in short skirts etc)

1. Colts- QB Andrew Luck
2. Redskins- QB Robert Griffin III
3. Vikings- OT Matt Kalil
4. Browns- WR Justin Blackmon
5. Buccaneers- CB Morris Claiborne
6. Rams- OT Reilly Reiff
7. Jaguars- DE Quinton Coples
8. Dolphins- QB Ryan Tannehill
9. Panthers- DT Dontari Poe
10. Bills- DE Whitney Mercilus
11. Chiefs- OG David DeCastro
12. Seahawks- OLB Melvin Ingram
13. Cardinals- WR Michael Floyd
14. Cowboys- DT Michael Brockers
15. Eagles- LB Luke Kuechley
16. Jets- OT Jonathon Martin
17. Bengals- RB Trent Richardson
18. Chargers- CB Dre Kirkpatrick
19. Bears- CB Stephon Gilmore
20. Titans- DE Whitney Mercilus
21. Bengals- OG Cordy Glenn
22. Browns- WR Kendall Wright
23. Lions- CB Janoris Jenkins
24. Steelers- DT Fletcher Cox
25. Broncos- DT Devon Still
26. Texans- WR Reuben Randle
27. Patriots- LB Courtney Upshaw
28. Packers- DE Nick Perry
29. Ravens- LB Dant'a Hightower
30. 49ers- TE Coby Fleener
31. Patriots- SS Mark Barron
32. Giants- RB David Wilson

Whitney Mercilus rules!!! He can tell his friends that he is a top 10 pick AND a top 20 pick as well. The Niners should consider him at #30 as well.

[Chadman]

Whitney Mercilus rules!!! He can tell his friends that he is a top 10 pick AND a top 20 pick as well. The Niners should consider him at #30 as well.

That's what you get for rushing things....

[Chadman]

Actually, if Chadman puts Whitney Marcilus down for every team in the 1st round, he's bound to get at least one right.


So long as he's a 1st rounder that is.

[Chadman]

Reports are now saying the Steelers have signed former West Virginia TE/Fullback Will Johnson & also former Steeler WR Wes Lyons. Both could push for reserve roles for next season.

Lyons is obviously well known for being 6'9". He also seemed to have a solid Camp last season.

Johnson could feasably contest the 3rd TE/ H-Back/ Fullback spot that David Johnson currently holds.