Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

[Chadman]

What we can see here is that "Future Need" will certainly apply to the following positions:

RB- Mendenhall, Redman & Dwyer will all be FA's of some description at the end of next season. This would leave Baron Batch & John Clay as the RB's under contract at that time. Either Redman will get an extended contract offer, or the Steelers will look at RB in the draft in order to not leave them short handed next season.

WR- Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown & Emmanual Sanders all hit FA next season (yes- 2 RFA's in there). Chadman is pretty sure 2, if not all 3, will get extended contracts.

TE- Both Heath Miller & David Johnson become UFA's next season. This will leave Wesleye Saunders as the only contracted TE.

OG- Both starting OG's become UFA's next season, and there are currently no OG's (outside of Malecki- who??) on the roster behind these 2.

FS/SS- Both back-up Safeties become FA's next season, while the 2 starters will be in their 30's.

NT- Depending on what the team does this season with Ziggy Hood- NT becomes a need. If Hood moves to NT, DE becomes a moderate need as well.

ILB- Farrior is gone now, Foote is a FA next year & Sylvester a RFA next season. This leaves the team very thin.


Conversly- QB, CB, OC, OT & OLB are low needs as they have long-term starters in place, as well as invested draft picks into the position recently. All is not as it seems though- as depth at QB & OT will be required (immediately perhaps) & a decision on the quality of the OLB depth might be needed soon in order to prepare for Harrison's eventual career end.

[Chadman]

The Steelers signed a number of Future Contract FA's recently- can any of these have a future on the Steelers roster?

QB- Troy Smith & Jerrod Johnson

RB- Chad Spann

WR- Derrick Williams, Jimmy Young, Jaumorris Stewart, David Gilreath & Tyler Beiler

TE- Jamie McCoy

OT- Chris Scott, Trevis Turner

OG- John Malecki

DE- Corbin Bryant, Al Woods, Mike Blanc

DT- Steve McLendon, Kade Weston

LB- Brandon Hicks, Marshall McFadden

CB- Antonio Smith, Walter McFadden

S- Damon Cromartie-Smith, Myron Rolle

Interesting to note the number of WR's and DL the Steelers added this off season- an indication that the 4th/5th/6th WR/DE/NT type positions will go to low-priced players perhaps?

[Crash]

Miller's contract expires after 2014.

[Chadman]

Miller's contract expires after 2014.

That's odd- Rotoworld has him finishing after this season..

[Chadman]

So far, the Steelers have been reported to be in contact with:

Steelers are scheduled to talk to Alabama ILB Dant'a Hightower
Steelers have spoken to Pitt OG Lucas Nix
Steelers have spoken to Cincinnatti RB Isiah Pead
Steelers have interviewed WVU OLB Bruce Irvin
Steelers interviewed Michigan NT Mike Martin at the Combine
Steelers attended Cincinnatti Pro Day- RB Isiah Pead DE Derek Wolfe
Steelers worked out/attended Miami Ohio OG Brandon Brooks
Steelers send 7 FO Personel, including Tomlin, Colbert & Haley to Miami Pro Day
Steelers DL Coach John Mitchell attends Mississippi Pro Day (Fletcher Cox)
Steelers GM Kevin Colbert attends Alabama Pro Day
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin & GM Kevin Colbert attend Ohio St Pro Day
Steelers interview Pitt CB Buddy Jackson.
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin dines with Michigan St QB Kirk Cousins
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin & GM Kevin Colbert pay attention to Michigan St FS Trent Robinson
Steelers HC Mike Tomlin & GM Kevin Colbert seen chatting extensively with Michigan St DT Jerel Worthy


Chadman will update this regularly.

[Chadman]

QB- Troy Smith & Jerrod Johnson

RB- Chad Spann

WR- Derrick Williams, Jimmy Young, Jaumorris Stewart, David Gilreath & Tyler Beiler

TE- Jamie McCoy

OT- Chris Scott, Trevis Turner

OG- John Malecki

DE- Corbin Bryant, Al Woods, Mike Blanc

DT- Steve McLendon, Kade Weston

LB- Brandon Hicks, Marshall McFadden

CB- Antonio Smith, Walter McFadden

S- Damon Cromartie-Smith, Myron Rolle

Given the Steelers financial situation, signing experienced FA's to fill back-up spots on the roster could be difficult. This is where some of these guys above COULD very well figure as back-ups, depth or role players for the upcoming season.

Some interesting scenarios could play out-

QB- With both Batch & Leftwich unsigned, and Dixon most certainly not coming back, Troy Smith &/or Jerrod Johnson have a shot at making the roster- both at Cap friendly prices. Kevin Colbert has said he wants Leftwich & Batch back, however economics may play a role in which of the 2 can return. Troy Smith is an interesting proposition- is he good enough to be the back-up QB? Is he too old to be the developmental QB? Johnson is quite impressive, physically- in fact, similar to Ben in some respects. He certainly is a candidate for 3rd QB/ Developmental player, but not the Back-up QB. Steelers tend to go into TC with 4 QB's on the roster. Batch may not get re-signed, leaving Leftwich to battle Smith for the back-up role, and Johnson trying to press his case to stick as the 3rd QB.

[Chadman]

WR Derrick Williams has a genuine chance of making the roster as the 5th WR & punt returner. He was a highly thouhgt of draft choice- selected in the 3rd round. Kind of a possession WR type. With Ward gone & Cotchery not signed- could Williams find a position in the rotation?

TE McCoy has a strong chance of at the worst, pushing for the 3rd TE position.

There is very little depth along the OL at this point, so both Chris Scott & Trevis Turner have a shot at pushing to make the roster. If the Steelers choose OL early in the draft though- both might find the active roster out of their reach.

On the DL, Al Woods & Corbin Bryant are pretty good young players- certainly capable of sticking around in a Nick Eason type role. NT Kade Weston is interesting- big guy playing a definate position of need. However, the draft may offer up a player early in his position putting him in a bad position to continue as a Steelers. A candidate for the PS though. McLendon is pretty much a lock to make the roster at this point.

All 4 DB's- Smith, McFadden, Cromartie-Smith & Rolle have some chance of staying. It will depend largely on how the draft plays out, but with Willie Gay an UFA, there is an opening at CB for Smith & McFadden. Steelers drafted 2 CB's last season & may be reluctant to draft another this season. With Taylor, Lewis, Allen & Brown locked in, there is still room for a 5th CB. Drafting a Safety will be another decider for these young players. If the Steelers do draft a Safety- it would be unlikely that Rolle & Cromartie-Smith would surplant either the drafted rookie or Ryan Mundy. If no Safety is drafted, however- both of these young guys offer some interesting skills.

[NJ-STEELER]

i liked what i saw out of bryant. and the FO has brought back woods a 2nd time so they must like what they see out of him

[Chadman]

Now we'll have a look at some draft trends across the NFL in Round 1 in the Tomlin Era- that is, the last 5 years.

Let's start with the top spot- QB

QB's
2011- 4 selected- #1, #8, #10. #12
2010- 2 selected- #1, #25
2009- 3 selected- #1, #5, #17
2008- 2 selected- #3, #18
2007- 2 selected- #1, #22

13 QB's selected in 5 years gives us an average of between 2-3 QB's per year. What this indicates is that, on average, 2 will definately be selected, with the possibility of a 3rd sneaking in- likely toward the end of the Round. No surprises- QB has been the #1 pick 4 out of 5 years, and will be again.

[Chadman]

Next we'll look at the RB position..

RB's
2011- 1 selected- #28
2010- 3 selected- #9, #12, #30
2009- 3 selected- #12, #27, #31
2008- 5 selected- #4, #13, #22, #23, #24
2007- 2 selected- #7, #12

14 RB's selected in Round 1 in the last 5 years puts them slightly higher than QB- but still in the 2-3 a year range. Closer to 3 really. This indicates that as we get toward the tail end of the draft, teams might look at the 3rd best RB over other positions. Only 3 RB's have been selected Top 10- an indication that RB's no longer hold the 'Premium Position' ranking it may have once held.

[Chadman]

WR is the next position on the list..

WR
2011- 3 selected- #4, #6, #26
2010- 2 selected- #22, #24
2009- 6 selected- #7, #10, #19, #22, #29, #30
2008- 0 selected
2007- 6 selected- #2, #9, #23, #27, #30, #32

17 WR's selected in 5 years puts the position in the 3-4 per year range. Obviously, 2 big years have skewed the rankings a little, but this in itself might lead to other trends (some will be shown later). One that we might see right here is, if it's considered a 'good' year for WR, teams will be happy to selected the 5th or even 6th best talent at the position in the 1st Round. Also, 6 out of 16 picks are Top 10- an indication that WR holds a good rank as far as position importance goes on Draft day.

[Chadman]

TE's are next on the list..

TE's
2011- 0 selected
2010- 1 selected- #21
2009- 1 selected- #20
2008- 1 selected- #30
2007- 1 selected- #31

Only 4 TE's in 5 years selected in the 1st Round- at an average, obviously, of less than 1 per year. This will likely hold close to true this year as Fleener is the only TE considered a possible 1st Round pick- and as history shows, a late pick at that.

[Chadman]

Next we'll take a look at everyone's favourite position- Center. After all, who hasn't, at some point, asked "Can he play Center?"

Center's
2011- 0 selected
2010- 1 selected- #18
2009- 2 selected- #21, #28
2008- 0 selected
2007- 0 selected

Only 3 OC's in 5 years- less than TE's. Obviously, less than 1 per year is the average. This is strange, as it is commonly believed that after LT, then OC is the 'next most important position' on the OL.

[Chadman]

Moving to the side of Center, we now look at the other big hogs- OG's..

OG's
2011- 2 selected- #15, #23
2010- 1 selected- #17
2009- 0 selected
2008- 1 selected- #15
2007- 1 selected- #29

5 OG's in 5 years gives us a nice, neat 1 per year average. More OG's are selected than OC's in Round 1 which is mildly surprising on face value, but there are, of course, double the amount of OG's on the field at any one time. Such a low average number of selections at OG does tend to lend weight to the "OG's are not Round 1 ability players" argument, but it doesn't completely write OG off the Round 1 board. Simply put- the BEST OG player will generally be a Round 1 pick. The 2nd best is generally a 2nd Round pick.

[Chadman]

We'll now look at the book-ends, the OT's..

OT's
2011- 6 selected- #9, #17, #22, #25, #29, #32
2010- 4 selected- #4, #6, #11, #23
2009- 4 selected- #2, #6, #8, #23
2008- 7 selected- #1, #12, #14, #17, #19, #21, #26
2007- 3 selected- #3, #5, #28

24 OT's selected in 5 years at a healthy average of just under 5 each season. 9 of the 24 were Top 10 picks & 15 of the 24 were Top 20 picks. Only twice has the #3 selected OT been outside the Top 20 in 5 years. This is, obviously, an extremely highly valued position & one that generally sees the 4th, 5th or even 6th best player in the position selected within the Top 32 picks.