Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

[pick6]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Wide Reciever- The Steelers have one of the youngest & most exciting groups in the NFL with Brown, Wallace & Sanders emerging. Experienced players like ward & Cotchery just enhance an already good group. That said- Wallace as we know is a RFA. And Cotchery is an UFA. Ward is 1000 years old & cost $4 million as the 4th/5th WR. Chadman would be absolutely shocked if Wallace is allowed to leave. He'll recieve the #1 tender & get paid around $3.5 million, unless he gets a multi-year deal (which Chadman predicts will happen). There isn't room for both Cotchery & Ward, at least, not at their current salary levels. Both may come back if Ward takes a significant pay-cut, and Cotchery is happy with the #4 WR role. Ward's pay-cut seems more likely than Cotchery's happiness. Arnaz Battle is a WR by name only, and costs too much for a guy that only play's ST. Rookies can do that job, cheaper. Expect Arnaz to be one of the first to go.

DL- The area that could experience the greatest change. Aaron Smith & Chris Hoke are likely retiring. This removes 1 starter & a quality back-up. Casey Hampton could also go as his contract number & his age/injuries don't equate to a good deal. Steve McLendon, the #3 NT is an ERFA, and will likely be kept around. Depending on what the team does with Hampton, it is possible McLendon becomes the starting NT. Keep in mind, McLendon is largly untested, so relying on him is quite a risk- an unusual move for the Steelers. Cam Heyward, Brett Keisel & Ziggy Hood will be holdovers next season. Corbin Bryant & Al Woods may get a look. If Smith, Hoke & Hampton are removed from the line-up, it is extremely likely an early draft pick will be used to help fill this group, as well as a potential UFA signing to help with the rotation. At the very least, if both Hoke & Hampton are removed, a rookie NT will be added to support McLendon.

I really think we should add a rookie NT, first 3 rounds, even if Hampton stays for less money.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

DB's- The Steelers have Willie Gay (UFA) & Keenan Lewis (RFA) as FA CB's, with Ryan Mundy (RFA) the only FA Safety. Both Lewis & Mundy should get tenders, with Lewis in line to recieve a reasonably high tender. Mundy should get the base tender. Willie Gay may recieve some interest on the FA market, making it hard to resign him. If he does re-sign, it could be at the detriment of some of the younger CB's on the roster- Keenan Lewis, Cortez Allen & Curtis Brown. It is quite possible that the Steelers move forward without Gay as they invested in the CB position quite well over the last 3 years. Bryant McFadden is a walking cap casualty- his cap figure is too high, his playing level too low. If both Gay & McFadden are removed, it is possible the Steelers might look for a low-level UFA CB to add some experience. Troy Polamalu & Ryan Clark are safe. they will return as the starters next season. Mundy looks the #1 back-up at this point. Will Allen is #2 back-up, but his cap figure puts him at extreme risk of being cut. A rookie Safety may be on the agenda this season.

ST- Dan Sepulveda was overdrafted, he's currently over-priced, and it may well be just plain over for him as a Steeler. Kapinos probably enters camp as #1 but don't be surprised if he is challenged in Camp. Shawn Suisham is well paid for an average kicker. A challenger here is likely.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

The interesting positions to look at in regards to "inserting an untested player without Vet competition already in place" appears to be-

LG- With Kemo likely gone, Legursky will be 'slated' as the starting LG if he is signed. It's likely the Steelers will look at an OG or two in the draft, but expect a Vet like Legursky to be brought back to 'hold' the position until it becomes apparent the player behind him is better. The other option is to sign an UFA, but given the cap situation at the moment, it is difficult to find a player that can be guarenteed a starter on Vet minimum money. The likely scenario- Legursky #1 on a cap friendly multi-year contract, and a rookie backing him up.

RG- Ramon Foster is a RFA, and will likely be tendered. Once that is done, he'll likely be named the starter at RG. A rookie or UFA could be brought in to challange this spot however as the FO seem to be constantly trying to replace Foster.

NT- Hoke & Hampton could be gone, and McLendon is an ERFA. McLendon is likely to come back, Hoke is likely to retire. Hampton? Chances are they'll want to restructure his contract. but if Casey is reluctant, or if the cap hit is still too high, the Steelers could just cut him & draft a guy to 'challenge' McLendon. Chadman doubts that the Steelers would feel comfortable going forward with McLendon #1, Rookie #2 at NT though.

ILB- Farrior holds the key to a number of issues- Larry Foote's status, Stevenson Sylvester's playing time, and the draft investment in an ILB. Chadman 'expects' Farrior to take a paycut, then split time with Sylvester. Or retire. But likely a paycut. That would mean the end for Larry Foote, who is quite possibly the better ILB at this point. If the Steelres don't think Sylvester is the future, drafting an ILB on draft day is very likely.

So the key players as far as Chadman sees it here are Legursky, Kemo, Foster, Hampton, McLendon, Farrior & Foote. These guys will be the biggest influences as far as their contract/status will impact the season coming up.

Realistically, what happens with guys like Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, Arnaz Battle, Bryant McFadden, Dennis Dixon, Chris Hoke & Max Starks may have very little impact on the team next season. They are either already replaced, or very replaceable.

The 'variable' impact player may be Willie Gay, who stepped up his game this season. If the rookies/young players are ready to step in to Gay's role, the Steelers are fine at CB. But if they haven't developed as hoped, Gay may become a priority signing.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Both Lewis & Mundy should get tenders, with Lewis in line to recieve a reasonably high tender. Mundy should get the base tender.

A team signing an RFA with a base tender requires compensation of a draft pick in the round in which the player was originally drafted. Since Lewis was originally drafted in the 3rd round, and Mundy in the 6th, we could likely get by giving them each a base tender (no reason to give Lewis a higher tender for 2nd or 1st round protection, in my mind).

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

One thing the Steelers seem to do every year is go into a draft with no obvious 'need'.

That is to say- they will have a vet player pencilled in for every position, and rookies are generally expected to be back-ups (unless they outplay the incumbant- which rarely happens).

Given that we have discussed who might get cut, and thrown out nearly every possible name, Chadman will try to disect it a little to see who are the more likely cuts, and who are the more likely contract restructures..

Chris Kemoeatu- is a likely cut, as he no longer holds a starters role & costs more than the guys that play in front of him. However, he'll only be cut if the Steelers get Legursky & Foster back (both are likely).

Casey Hampton- Given that Chris Hoke has now retired, and the only other NT on the roster is McLendon, Chadman believes Casey will get an extension. The Steelers might still draft a NT, even possibly early, but Hampton will probably hold the spot for a year or 2 yet. If Hampton is cut, chances are a FA vet NT will be brought in before the draft.

James Farrior & Larry Foote- get grouped together because it's likely 1 goes & the other stays at this point. The Steelers have given little indication that Sylvester is ready to step in, which indicates to Chadman that 1 of the 2 vets will start next season. Heart says Farrior, head says Foote would be the better player at this point. A draft pick at ILB seems a logical assumption.

Jonathon Scott & Trai Essex- like Farrior & Foote, one of these 2 will likely be back next season, at a budget price. Essex is a FA, Scott under contract. Chadman is betting Scott gets asked to take a paycut & sticks as the back-up OT. Unless there is zero interest in Max Starks across the NFL, Starks will likely be let walk due to him costing too much.

Bryant McFadden- 5th on the depth chart kinda says all you need to know. That said- if the Steelers lose Willie Gay in FA, and they are not convinced Lewis/Brown/Allen are ready to start- he might be due a restructure until he gets outplayed.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

2 other players that might be able to be restructured are the LB brothers- Timmons & Woodley. Both only just got their pay increase, but there is a little trick included in both contracts. Both have 'Roster Bonus Payments" attached for this upcoming season- Woodley gets $5.5 million & Timmons gets $4.4 million. If the Steelers guarentee those roster bonus payments, before a certain time in March (not sure of the date), they can absorb those roster bonus payments over the life of the contract- similar to Signing Bonus payments. If both players do this, roughly $8 million is saved.

jimwexell James C Wexell
Learn how Steelers already dropped $6.5m in cap money by restructuring Woodley: mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=68&f… Timmons next. Great job by Omar LY.

Ahem.....

[Jooser]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Yep, good call Chadman. So, between the Woodley restructuring and the two players cut today, the Steelers have made up approximately $10 million towards the cap? Not a bad days work. They can make this work, I'm confident in that.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Yep, good call Chadman. So, between the Woodley restructuring and the two players cut today, the Steelers have made up approximately $10 million towards the cap? Not a bad days work. They can make this work, I'm confident in that.

Now they just need to double that...restructure Lawrence Timmons tomorrow while also cutting Chris Kemoeatu and Will Allen. Done!

[pfelix73]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

I would not count on the FO letting go of Kemo so fast...If he continues to stay on the team, its a sure sign that they are going to put more emphasis on the running game this year. Let's not forget that Kemo is a pretty good run blocker. It's gonna depend on what the FO and the new OC decides to do, but if we see Kemo on the roster throughout the spring, don't be surprised...

[Jooser]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Also, Smitty is still hanging around, but I'm not surprised. I think that he and Big Snack can be restructured as well. Smitty wouldn't be a bad backup to keep on the roster for cheap IMO. Will Allen needs cut, DJ needs cut, Kemo will probably be cut, but could take a pay cut to stay around.

[Steel Life]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

I would not count on the FO letting go of Kemo so fast...If he continues to stay on the team, its a sure sign that they are going to put more emphasis on the running game this year. Let's not forget that Kemo is a pretty good run blocker. It's gonna depend on what the FO and the new OC decides to do, but if we see Kemo on the roster throughout the spring, don't be surprised...

I don't know about that Felix...Kemo just wasn't playing well at all last season & his penchant for penalties really can't be tolerated any longer. At this point he's a million dollar talent with a 10 cent head...let him go.

[Oviedo]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

I would not count on the FO letting go of Kemo so fast...If he continues to stay on the team, its a sure sign that they are going to put more emphasis on the running game this year. Let's not forget that Kemo is a pretty good run blocker. It's gonna depend on what the FO and the new OC decides to do, but if we see Kemo on the roster throughout the spring, don't be surprised...

I don't know about that Felix...Kemo just wasn't playing well at all last season & his penchant for penalties really can't be tolerated any longer. At this point he's a million dollar talent with a 10 cent head...let him go.

If Kemo stays then he is my odds on favorite as the player that Haley goes ballistic on during a game after he gets another of his bonehead penalties.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Kemo may not be cut until Legursky & Foster are re-signed. Chadman highly doubts that the Steelers will go into the 2012 Draft with only Kemo on the books as a potential starter at OG.

That said, if both Legs & Foster are re-signed, could be the end of the road for Kemo.

Willie Gay's re-signing/ non-signing could also determine if the Steelers ask Bryant McFadden to come back at a lower contract cost. Don't be surprised if we have not seen the end of B-Mac...

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

2 other players that might be able to be restructured are the LB brothers- Timmons & Woodley. Both only just got their pay increase, but there is a little trick included in both contracts. Both have 'Roster Bonus Payments" attached for this upcoming season- Woodley gets $5.5 million & Timmons gets $4.4 million. If the Steelers guarentee those roster bonus payments, before a certain time in March (not sure of the date), they can absorb those roster bonus payments over the life of the contract- similar to Signing Bonus payments. If both players do this, roughly $8 million is saved.

Steelers reportedly restructured the contract of ILB Lawrence Timmons, freeing up $5.14 million in salary cap space.
The Steelers have saved $11.7 million against the 2012 cap by restructuring Timmons and LaMarr Woodley. Timmons' base salary was reduced to $700,000, but he's now due a $6.425 million signing bonus prorated at $1.285 million per over the next five years. The Steelers may not be done restructuring, as they need to free enough space to match offers for Mike Wallace now that the maximum tender for restricted free agents is at the first-round level.

Ahem! Ahem!

[Jooser]

Re: Chadman's 2012 Off-season Free Agency & Draft thread

Roll on Chadman, roll on! LOL