Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

OLB Value...

Round 1
Von Miller
Akeem Ayers

Round 2
Bruce Carter
Mason Foster
Brooks Reed
Sam Acho

Round 3
Dontay Moch
KJ Wright

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

ILB/MLB Value..

Round 1
Martez Wilson

Round 2
Quan Sturdivant

Round 3
Casey Matthews
Kelvin Sheppard
Greg Jones

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

CB Value..

Round 1
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Jimmy Smith
Brandon Harris
Aaron Williams

Round 2
Ras-I Dowling
Curtis Brown
Johnny Patrick
Brandon Burton
Rashard Carmicheal
Kendric Burney

Round 3
Davon House
Shareece Wright
Richard Sherman
Darryl Skrine
DeMarcus Van Dyke

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Safety value...

Round 1
Rahim Moore

Round 2
Quinton Carter
Tyler Sash

Round 3
DeAndre McDaniel
Ahmad Black
Robert Sands
Deunta Williams
Shilo Keo

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Now lets have a look at historically, how positions have been drafted in the first 3 rounds over the last 10 years..

Round 1
QB's- 27 selected 2.7 average per year
RB's- 32 selected 3.2 average per year
WR's- 40 selected 4 average per year
TE's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
OT's- 33 selected 3.3 average per year
C/OG's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
DT's- 35 selected 3.5 average per year
DE's- 39 selected 3.9 average per year
LB's- 28 selected 2.8 average per year
CB's- 43 selected 4.3 average per year
S's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year

Round 2
QB's- 12 selected 1.2 average per year
RB's- 23 selected 2.3 average per year
WR's- 46 selected 4.6 average per year
TE's- 15 selected 1.5 average per year
OT's- 23 selected 2.3 average per year
C/OG's- 25 selected 2.5 average per year
DT's- 24 selected 2.4 average per year
DE's- 31 selected 3.1 average per year
LB's- 46 selected 4.6 average per year
CB's- 36 selected 3.6 average per year
S's- 35 selected 3.5 average per year

Round 3
QB's- 12 selected 1.2 average per year
RB's- 25 selected 2.5 average per year
WR's- 48 selected 4.8 average per year
TE's- 24 selected 2.4 average per year
OT's- 20 selected 2.0 average per year
C/OG's- 31 selected 3.1 average per year
DT's- 28 selected 2.8 average per year
DE's- 27 selected 2.7 average per year
LB's- 52 selected 5.2 average per year
CB's- 47 selected 4.7 average per year
S's- 32 selected 3.2 average per year

[grotonsteel]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Wow...Great Work....Chadman

I agree with most of your Rd1-Rd 3 players.

[Shawn]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Right now, how I think the draft will play out I don't see any elite tackles or OGs falling to the Steelers. I think Harris is gone. I think this will come down to Williams, Wilkerson and Heyward. I have no idea why Heyward fell in the lastest Walter, maybe a poor combine? I haven't been paying much attention. IMO, the guy with the least amount of bust potential is Wilkerson. From what I have been reading, he seems to have the goods. But, he doesn't fill a dire need nor does he fit the profile of typical first rounders from the Steelers. So, with that said I think Williams is a very reasonable guess.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Round 1
QB's- 27 selected 2.7 average per year
RB's- 32 selected 3.2 average per year
WR's- 40 selected 4 average per year
TE's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
OT's- 33 selected 3.3 average per year
C/OG's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year
DT's- 35 selected 3.5 average per year
DE's- 39 selected 3.9 average per year
LB's- 28 selected 2.8 average per year
CB's- 43 selected 4.3 average per year
S's- 14 selected 1.4 average per year

So, now lets use history as our guide to determine who may be available for the Steelers.

QB- obviously won't be selected in Round 1 for the Steelers, but in determining who may be available, history tells us that 2 QB's should go at the very least, with the possibility of a 3rd rising into the 1st as well. Jake Locker to the Skins would satisfy the 3rd QB rule. It's unlikely any other QB goes in Round 1. If the Skins don't take Locker at #10, there could be some trade back options for the Steelers with teams like the 49ers, Titans & the Skins in Round 2 if they want to jump up ahead of their rivals & take Locker at the end of Round 1.

RB- Well, history tells us that 3-4 RB's should come off the board in Round 1- but this just doesn't look like a good year for it. There is SOME chance that Leshoure could go in Round 1- if not to the Patriots, then to the Saints or Packers. But outside of Ingram & Leshoure it's unlikely another RB moves into Round 1. Or...does it mean a team will OVERDRAFT Ryan Williams? That is quite possible if the Pats/Saints take Leshoure at the end of Round 1 & the Packers could then select Williams at #32. 4 RB's in the 1st Round seems very unlikely. Regardless- this is a position the Steelers will be unlikely to touch.

WR- historically 4 WR's a year go in Round 1. AJ Green, Julio Jones seem locks for Round 1. Then it comes down to Baldwin, Smith & Hankerson as the next in line. To see 4 WR's go in Round 1 is not beyond belief. Hankerson had a good Combine & may have pushed himself into consideration. WR is a position that is regularly taken heavily in the early rounds, so the Steelers could find themselves in position to look at the 3rd or 4th best WR in this class- likely Baldwin or Hankerson.

TE- Historically only 1-2 TE's ever get selected in Round 1. This year really only presents 1 option as a 1st round pick in Rudolph. It is VERY likely he'll be available around the Steelers #31 pick as the teams around the Steelers seem to have needs elsewhere. As discussed earlier, he fits many of the Steelers draft catagories, so it's not beyond the realms of belief. Essentially, the Steelers will have a good chance at picking the #1 TE available in this class.

OT- Surprisingly, OT only offers up 3-4 selections per year on average, in the 1st round. this theory means the Steelers should be in position to select likely the 4th best OT, or OVERDRAFT the 5th best OT. Currently most sites have Gabe Carimi or Derek Sherrod as the 4th & 5th best OT's on the board. While history states that selecting the 5th best OT would be OVERDRAFTING, realistically, Sherrod is pretty good value at #31, and Carimi is great value at #31. This is a STRONG possibility.

OC/OG- 1-2 Interior Lineman seem to be the average per year. this would mean that bord favourite Mike Pouncey is likely gone by #31. This theory puts the #2 Interior Lineman in the sights of the Steelers- quite possibly either Rodney Hudson or Stefan Wisniewski. History tells us that drafting either of these 2 would be OVERDRAFTING the position, and realistically, neither stand out as Round 1 players.

DT- 3-4 DT's are selected, historically, in the 1st Round. This encompasses both DT's for 4-3, and NT's for 3-4. In some cases, it also includes potential 3-4 DE's. It is, therefore, a hard position to evaluate for the Steelers needs. History says the Steelers could be looking at the 4th or 5th best DT on the board. Currently that means that players like Luiget, Wilkerson, Taylor & Paea. Taylor has character concerns & probably gets struck from the list. Wilkerson fits in many ways, but his level of competition doesn't fit with the Steelers criteria. He is, however, a fast rising player & it might make Luiget a possibility. Luiget fits nearly every Steeler requirement & is a very good option. In fact, he is, in Chadman's estimation, the only player worthy of trading up for if he gets close. If he's there at #31- he's got to be very tempting. Paea could surprise as the future NT of the Steelers if he can impress the Steelers FO. He could very well be Plan B if they miss on whoever it is the Steelers really want.

DE- 3-4 DE's historically go in the 1st Round. Close to 4 annually, to be honest. But with the new influx of 3-4 Defenses, this figure can be...blurred...much like the DT position. History does, however, suggest the Steelres will be in line for the 4th or 5th best DE available in the class- currently JJ Watt, Adrian Clayborn or Cameron Hayward. Realistically, all these guys would be good picks. It's quite likely at least 1 of them will be available at #31- certainly a Cameron Hayward would be of interest to the Steelers as their DL ages. When you couple the depth at DE & DT in this class, the Steelers may be presented with multiple DL options at #31. This is a STRONG possibility.

LB- typically 2-3 LB's are selected in Round 1 every year. Again, with the shift to 3-4 by a host of teams, the stat can be blurry as some DE's become LB's..but, historically speaking, the Steelers should be in position to take the 3rd or 4th best LB in the draft- possibly someone like Justin Houston, Akeem Ayers or Martez Wilson. This could be the 'sneaky' position in the draft for the Steelers- particularly in terms of Wilson at ILB (Future Farrior replacement) or Ayers (UCLA- Carnell Lake link- Harrison 32, Woodley Franchised). It's unlikely, but not impossible to believe LB could go in Round 1.

CB- One of the heavier drafted positions in history with 4-5 going every year in Round 1. This puts the Steelers in the range of selecting the 5th or 6th best CB at #31- currently Aaron Williams, Ras-I Dowling or Curtis Brown. If Williams is available, he certainly fits need/value & many Steeler criteria. Dowling & Brown would be OVERDRAFTED at #31. Williams presents good value, but if gone, the Steelers will be best advised looking at Round 2. Strong possibility.

Safety- 1-2 Safeties per year, historically, are selected in the 1st Round. This draft class really only presents 1 option- Rahim Moore - and he will likely be available at #31. This means the Steelers will have a chance at the #1 safety on the board- something they might look at strongly. Also, the UCLA-Carnell Lake link exists here too. Strong possibility.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Round 2-

QB- Historically, the Steelers could be looking at the 4th/5th QB on the board- Stanzi or Ponder- both are extremely unlikely.

RB- Steelers could be looking at the 5th or 6th RB on the board here historically- Demarco Murray or Jordan Todman- again , pretty unlikely.

WR- Steelers historically will be looking at the 9th or 10th WR on the board here- Greg Little, Austin Pettis, Vincent Brown or Edmund Gates- possible, but still unlikely as they do not present great value here.

TE- Historically, could be looking at the 3rd best TE on the board- DJ Williams or Lance Kendricks.

OT- History says it's the 6th or 7th best OT on the board here- Ben Ijalana, Joseph Barksdale or Orlando Franklin- BIG drop-off from the first 5 OT's.

OC/OG- History says the 4th or 5th best IOL should be available here- Jake Kirkpatrick, Danny Watkins, Marcus Cannon or Rodney Hudson- good possibility.

DT- 6th or 7th best DT is available around here historically- Marvin Austin, Drake Nevis or Jarvis Jenkins are possibilities- not really good value at this point.

DE- 8th to 9th best DE is usually available around here- Allen Bailey, Jarvis Jenkins or Lawrence Guy become possibilities- most likely overdrafted here.

LB- 8th to 9th best LB is historically available here- Quan Sturdivant, Dontay Moch, Colin McCarthy or Mark Herzlich. Not exactly great value.

CB- 8th to 9th best CB is historically on the boards about here- Johnny Patrick, Brandon Burton, Rashard Carmichael & Davon House are possibilities- pretty good value- Steelers have spoken to 3 out of those 4.

Safety- 5th to 6th best Safety is historically available around here- Ahmad Black, Robert Sands & Deunta Williams could be around here. Not out of the question.

[Shawn]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

[Oviedo]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

I agree. That is what we did when we needed to rebuild the LB Corps...we drafted Timmons and Woodley in Round 1 and Round 2. That worked great.

We need to at least consider the same strategy to fix our mediocre secondary.

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Round 3-

QB- 5th to 6th best QB- Stanzi, Dalton

RB- 9th to 10th best RB here- Daniel Thomas, Noel Devine, Derrick Locke

WR- 14th to 15th best- Ronald Johnson, Greg Salas, Cecil Shorts or Terrence Tolliver

TE- 6th to 7th best TE- Virgil Green or Lee Smith

OT- 8th to 9th best OT historically should be here- Pinkston, Brewer, Ziemba, Hairston or Gilbert- Value??

OG/OC- 8th or 9th best IOL should be here- John Moffit, Demarcus Love, Kris O'Dowd, or James Carpenter- Value??

DT- 9th or 10th DT on the board- Jurrell Casey, Jerrell Powe, Sione Fua, Kenrick Ellis

DE- 10th or 11th best DE on the board- Cedric Thornton, Pernell McPhee, Greg Romeus, Jabaal Sheard...no real value.

LB- 13th to 14th LB on the board- Greg Jones, Nate Irving, Colin McCarthy- poor value.

CB- 13th to 14th CB on the board- Shareece Wright, Chimdi Chekwa, Curtis Marsh, Brandon Hogan, Jalil Brown, DeMarkus Van Dyke- Value?

Safety- 9th or 10th best Safety on the board- Jaiquawn Jarrett, Jerrard Tarrant, Jeron Johnson, Will Hill- Not the worst value.

[Shawn]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Chekwa is a guy who has the tools to be a very good NFL DB. The dude has serious speed, atheticism and agility. He needs some really good coaching, and time but I think the guy can be special.

[Blockhead]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

I wouldn't mind Chekwa in the middle rounds.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Chadman it wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers draft DB in round 1 and 2...not just out of need but because that just might be how BPA lands. Williams and Burton would sure up our secondary in a quick way. I think it's reasonable both could get early PT in the nickle and dime.

I was thinking the same thing. It could be possible that top prospects could fall to us in each spot and especially if Ike goes it fills a glaring need.