Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 12:58 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Let's look first at the picks predicted for the Steelers. We all know there is an obvious need at DB & along the OL, It would seem that these draft sites agree with their mock picks being-
CB Brandon Harris Miami
FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma
OG Mike Pouncey Florida
OG Ben Ijalana Villanova

Let's apply a little Chadman theory here-
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert have a history of looking for young, athletic players that have shown some level of production against good competition in the first round. They have a history of looking for Juniors. They rarely reach.

Of these 4, Brandon Harris is a JUNIOR, who has started 13 games in each of his 3 college seasons playing in the ACC (strong competition). He has a strong body of work on his resume.

Quinton Carter is a SENIOR who has played a consistantly high amount of games the last 3 seasons with an impressive stat line, while playing in the BIG 12. He is not predicted to go this high on any other draft site.

Mike Pouncey is a SENIOR who has played consistantly in a big program (SEC). His brother, obviously, plays for the Steelers already.

Ben Ijalana is a 4 year starter who has shown consistancy for a CAA team- not always playing against top competition.

Of those 4, Pouncey & Harris seem the more likely picks from those mock drafts. But...chadman is not convinced they will be the pick at #31...

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 01:00 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Let's look first at the picks predicted for the Steelers. We all know there is an obvious need at DB & along the OL, It would seem that these draft sites agree with their mock picks being-
CB Brandon Harris Miami
FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma
OG Mike Pouncey Florida
OG Ben Ijalana Villanova

Let's apply a little Chadman theory here-
The Steelers under Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert have a history of looking for young, athletic players that have shown some level of production against good competition in the first round. They have a history of looking for Juniors. They rarely reach.

Of these 4, Brandon Harris is a JUNIOR, who has started 13 games in each of his 3 college seasons playing in the ACC (strong competition). He has a strong body of work on his resume.

Quinton Carter is a SENIOR who has played a consistantly high amount of games the last 3 seasons with an impressive stat line, while playing in the BIG 12. He is not predicted to go this high on any other draft site.

Mike Pouncey is a SENIOR who has played consistantly in a big program (SEC). His brother, obviously, plays for the Steelers already.

Ben Ijalana is a 4 year starter who has shown consistancy for a CAA team- not always playing against top competition.

Of those 4, Pouncey & Harris seem the more likely picks from those mock drafts. But...chadman is not convinced they will be the pick at #31...

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 01:34 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Let's look at it a different way- broken down by position and using Walter Footballs Round Rankings to decide if the player is a reach or not at #31. Chadman will highlight in GREEN the positives, and in RED the negatives on each player-

OG/OT
Stefan Wisniewski Penn St (BIG 10) Senior Round 2Gabe Carimi Wisconsin (BIG 10) Senior Top 25 Pick
Derek Sherrod Mississippi St (SEC) Senior Round 1-2Mike Pouncey Florida (SEC) Senior Top 31 PickJason Pinkston Pittsburgh (BIG EAST) Senior Round 3-4Ben Ijalana Villanova (CAA) Senior Round 1-2

DB
Rahim Moore UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 40 PickQuinton Carter Oklahoma (BIG 12) Senior Round 2-3Brandon Harris Miami ( ACC) Junior Round 1-2Aaron Williams Texas (BIG 12) Junior Round 1-2
DL
Christian Ballard Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Round 2-3Corey Luiget Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Top 25 Pick
Muhammed Wilkerson Temple (MID AMERICAN) JuniorTop 30 Pickor Phil Taylor Baylor (BIG 12) Senior Round 1-2Stephen Paea Oregon (PAC 10) Senior Round 2
Adrian Clayborn Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Top 20 Pick
All Other Positions
TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame (IA INDEPENDANTS) Junior Top 40 PickWR Jon Baldwin Pittsburgh ( BIG EAST) Junior Round 1-2OLB Akeem Ayers UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 30 PickOLB Brooks Reed Arizona (PAC 10) Senior Round 2RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Round 1-2OLB Justin Houston Georgia (SEC) Junior Round 1-2

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 01:44 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Now, let's rank these players based on how the colours add up-

3 Green's-
FS Rahim Moore
CB Brandon Harris
CB Aaron Williams
OLB Akeem Ayers

2 Greens-
OT Derek Sherrod
OG Mike Pouncey
DE Corey Luiget
DE Muhammed Wilkerson
NT Phil Taylor
TE Kyle Rudolph
WR Jon Baldwin
LB Justin Houston

1 Green-
OC/OG Stefan Wisniewski
OT Gabe Carimi
DE Christian Ballard
NT Stephen Paea
DE Adrian Clayborn
LB Brooks Reed
RB Mikel Leshoure
FS Quinton Carter

1 Red-
OC/OG Stefan Wisniewski
OT Jason Pinkston
OG Ben Ijalana
FS Quinton Carter
DE Christian Ballard
DE Muhammed Wilkerson
DE Adrian Clayborn
LB Brooks Reed

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 01:53 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

At this point, we'll remove the players with a RED mark against them as the Steelers won't reach on a player that doesn't fill their criteria..

Let's now add in "Chadman's Position Of Need Ratings" or C.P.O.N.R for short...
3 Points for DB/OL
2 Points for DL
1 Point for WR/TE/LB
-1 Points for QB/RB/ST

3 Points for-
FS Rahim Moore, CB Brandon Harris, CB Aaron Williams, OT Derek Sherrod, OG Mike Pouncey, OT Gabe Carimi

2 Points for-
DE Corey Luiget, NT Phil Taylor, NT Stephen Paea

1 Point for-
OLB Akeem Ayers, TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Jon Baldwin, OLB Justin Houston

-1 Point for-
RB Mikel Leshoure

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 01:59 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

This leaves the "Standings" at..

6 Points-
FS Rahim Moore
CB Brandon Harris
CB Aaron Williams

5 Points-
OT Derek Sherrod
OG Mike Pouncey

4 Points-
OT Gabe Carimi
DE Corey Luiget
NT Phil Taylor
NT Stephen Paea
OLB Akeem Ayers

3 Points-
OLB Justin Houston
WR Jon Baldwin
TE Kyle Rudolph

Lower Than 3 Points-
RB Mikel Leshoure

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 02:04 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

To this we must now add 'Logic'.

Let's face it, the Steelers certainly value 'character' in it's selection process. Obviously, talent can sometimes outweigh charchter, but not often. It's safe to assume that players with genuine character concerns can be discarded at this point-

WR Jon Baldwin, NT Phil Taylor.

Add to this- there are a few positions that won't get drafted in Round 1- QB/RB. So discount-

Mikel Leshoure.

It's highly likely from this list that at least 1 player is likely to be chosen before #31. Remove-

OT Gabe Carimi
DE Corey Luiget

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 02:12 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

From this list, there are still likely a couple of players that will go earlier than #31.

CB Brandon Harris is often viewed as being picked before #31, as is Aaron Williams. However, rarely are BOTH gone before #31 in any mock.

OG Mike Pouncey is picked anywhere from early 20's through to around #40- he could go anywhere. Same with Derek Sherrod.

LB Akeem Ayers will likely fall around the #31 mark- but is he a 'need'?

NT Stephen Paea is likely a need, but more likely a 'reach' at #31.

TE Kyle Rudolph ticks a number of Steeler selection history marks, but is it unlikely the Steelers pick a TE in Round 1?

FS Rahim Moore actually fits a number of the needs/BPA type holes at this point, but you would think if Pouncey/Sherrod/Harris or Williams are on the board, they'd be picked ahead of Moore.

In Chadman's opinion, the 2 CB's, Pouncey & Sherrod are the most likely targets. The question is- who will be available?

Chadman's rankings at this point-
CB Harris/ CB Williams
OT Sherrod
OG Pouncey
FS Moore
OLB Ayers
NT Paea
TE Rudolph

**StarSpangledSteeler** · 03-07-2011, 02:24 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Originally posted by steeler_george

This is one analysis solely based on how I see the Steelers draft in the first round.

10- Ziggy
09- Mendenhall
08- Timmons
07- Holmes*
06- Miller*
05- Roethlisberger
04- Polamalu
03- Simmons
02- Hampton
01- Burress **
00- Edwards **

1) They alternate alternate 1st round pick between their offense and defense.

* They have broke this routine a few times in the past 10 plus years, mostly due to haveing a franchise QB. This year look for us to select a CB/S in round one.

**I think those years we were just desperate to get WR.

2) No senoirs, mostly all sophmores r juniors.
Too lazy to do the research, but half the players I know were S/J.

3) Big programn. The exception is BEN.

4) BPA never for need.

5) All have been invited to the 30 interviews, exception I think was Mend.

Very good observations. I agree on almost every point. There is no doubt the Steelers like the big programs and younger athletes in the first. There is no doubt they always interview their target prospects (unless there's a freak talent that drops). The tricky part is the alternating offense and defense picks. I believe ideally Colbert would love to alternate to keep balance and consistency on our team, however I think (as you said in #4) he will take a clear BPA over just about any pre-draft plan.

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 02:45 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Now to add in Draft History-
In the last 5 years:
CB's-
2010= 5 selected in Round 1 (#7, #20, #27, #29, #32)
2009= 2 selected in Round 1 (#14, #25)
2008= 5 selected in Round 1 (#11, #16, #20, #25, #27)
2007= 3 selected in Round 1 (#14, #18, #20)
2006= 5 selected in Round 1 (#15, #16, #19, #24, #31)

Safeties-
2010= 2 selected in Round 1 (#5, #14)
2009= 0 selected in Round 1
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#31)
2007= 4 selected in Round 1 (#6, #19, #21, #24)
2006= 2 selected in Round 1 (#7, #

OT's-
2010= 4 selected in Round 1 (#4, #6, #11, #23)
2009= 4 selected in Round 1 (#2, #6, #8, #23)
2008= 7 selected in Round 1 (#1, #12, #14, #17, #19, #21, #26)
2007= 3 selected in Round 1 (#3, #5, #2

2006= 1 selected in Round 1 (#4)

OG's-
2010= 1 selected in Round 1 (#17)
2009= 0 selected in Round 1
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#15)
2007= 1 selected in Round 1 (#29)
2006= 1 selected in Round 1 (#23)

3-4 OLB's-
2010= 0 selected in Round 1
2009= 4 selected in Round 1 (#13, #15, #16, #26)
2008= 0 selected in Round 1
2007= 0 selected in Round 1
2006= 3 selected in Round 1 (#13, #18, #22)

TE's-
2010= 1 selected in Round 1 (#21)
2009= 1 selected in Round 1 (#20)
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#30)
2007= 1 selected in Round 1 (#31)
2006= 2 selected in Round 1 (#6, #2

3-4 NT's-
2010= 1 selected in Round 1 (#26)
2009= 1 selected in Round 1 (#9)
2008= 1 selected in Round 1 (#5)
2007= 0 selected in Round 1
2006= 1 selected in Round 1 (#12)

FOR THE RECORD-
#31 pick's in the last 10 years-
2010- 4-3 DE
2009- RB
2008- FS
2007- TE
2006- CB
2005- 4-3 DT
2004- WR
2003- CB
2002- 4-3 OLB
2001- TE
2000- RB

**Chadman** · 03-07-2011, 02:55 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

What can we take from that history?

Well, at....

CB- The Steelers will, historically, be in position to pick the 4th or 5th best CB. This is not an outstanding year for CB, so we could assume the #4 CB could be overdrafted before #31. Walters Football ranks Brandon Harris the 4th CB, Aaron Williams at #5. Williams fits nearly all Steelers criteria.

FS- Historically, the #1 Safety will be gone by #31. However, this is something of a poor year at Safety & none may be selected this early. It is likely Rahim Moore will be available at #31.

OT- Historically, the Steelers will be in position to select probably the 5th best OT. Walters has Derek Sherrod at #5, Ben Ijalana at #6.

OG- Historically, if an OG goes in Round 1, it's before #31. If Pouncey is gone, would the Steelers over-select the #2 OG?

TE- The Steelers could be in position for the 2nd best TE unless Rudolph falls. Rudolph fits every other Tomlin/Colbert draft criteria.

OLB- There is a good chance the Steelers will be in position to pick the #1 3-4 OLB. Could that be Ayers?

NT- there is a very good chance the Steelers could be in position to pick the #1 NT. Phil Taylor is probably the #1 3-4 NT, but with character concerns, could Stephen Paea fit at #31?

**hawaiiansteel** · 03-07-2011, 02:58 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Originally posted by Chadman

In Chadman's opinion, the 2 CB's, Pouncey & Sherrod are the most likely targets. The question is- who will be available?

Chadman's rankings at this point-
CB Harris/ CB Williams
OT Sherrod
OG Pouncey
FS Moore
OLB Ayers
NT Paea
TE Rudolph

aloha Chadman, great job so far.

the Steelers interviewed CBs Brandon Burton, Rashad Carmichael and Johnny Patrick at the Combine, all of them would be Round 2 picks so that's when I think the Steelers go CB.

I would forget about FS Moore, OLB Ayers, NT Paea and TE Rudolph in Round 1 and add DEs Muhammad Wilkerson and Cameron Heyward were they to fall to #31...

**StarSpangledSteeler** · 03-07-2011, 03:21 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Originally posted by Chadman

From this list, there are still likely a couple of players that will go earlier than #31.

CB Brandon Harris is often viewed as being picked before #31, as is Aaron Williams. However, rarely are BOTH gone before #31 in any mock.

OG Mike Pouncey is picked anywhere from early 20's through to around #40- he could go anywhere. Same with Derek Sherrod.

LB Akeem Ayers will likely fall around the #31 mark- but is he a 'need'?

NT Stephen Paea is likely a need, but more likely a 'reach' at #31.

TE Kyle Rudolph ticks a number of Steeler selection history marks, but is it unlikely the Steelers pick a TE in Round 1?

FS Rahim Moore actually fits a number of the needs/BPA type holes at this point, but you would think if Pouncey/Sherrod/Harris or Williams are on the board, they'd be picked ahead of Moore.

In Chadman's opinion, the 2 CB's, Pouncey & Sherrod are the most likely targets. The question is- who will be available?

Chadman's rankings at this point-
CB Harris/ CB Williams
OT Sherrod
OG Pouncey
FS Moore
OLB Ayers
NT Paea
TE Rudolph

Chadman, I have to tip my hat to you on this post. That was a very unique and ingenious analysis. Some of the info may be more applicable than others, but I like how you systematically broke it down into points. There is no doubt the Steelers will take a similar approach (weighing the positives mathematically in one way or another). A lot of us (including myself) make our mock drafts emotionally and yours was very intellectual. Okay, enough a$$ kissing. Here's the problems I see...

1) There has got to be a way to put more numerical value on sheer prospect ranking (ex. Patrick Peterson = 98, Mike Pouncey = 93, Aaron Williams = 89, etc.) That is what it all boils down to in the end. The BPA.

2) If you get a pro-bowler in Pouncey, it has to be worth more than a solid starter in Williams. I understand the difference in position value ( OT>OG, CB>S, etc) but when you have a chance to get a bust-proof, sure fire, best in the class, future pro-bowler, you just don't pass that up.

3) There has to be a way to calculate the severity of team need as well. In other words, we are the number 2 ranked defense in the NFL, and the number 14 ranked offense. Even though we have a HUGE need at CB, statistically the greater need (and area of greatest potential improvement) is on offense.

Having said that, I agree completely with your evaluation of the most likely top 4 prospects.

**Oviedo** · 03-07-2011, 08:57 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Originally posted by Chadman

What can we take from that history?

Well, at....

CB- The Steelers will, historically, be in position to pick the 4th or 5th best CB. This is not an outstanding year for CB, so we could assume the #4 CB could be overdrafted before #31. Walters Football ranks Brandon Harris the 4th CB, Aaron Williams at #5. Williams fits nearly all Steelers criteria.

FS- Historically, the #1 Safety will be gone by #31. However, this is something of a poor year at Safety & none may be selected this early. It is likely Rahim Moore will be available at #31.

OT- Historically, the Steelers will be in position to select probably the 5th best OT. Walters has Derek Sherrod at #5, Ben Ijalana at #6.

OG- Historically, if an OG goes in Round 1, it's before #31. If Pouncey is gone, would the Steelers over-select the #2 OG?

TE- The Steelers could be in position for the 2nd best TE unless Rudolph falls. Rudolph fits every other Tomlin/Colbert draft criteria.

OLB- There is a good chance the Steelers will be in position to pick the #1 3-4 OLB. Could that be Ayers?

NT- there is a very good chance the Steelers could be in position to pick the #1 NT. Phil Taylor is probably the #1 3-4 NT, but with character concerns, could Stephen Paea fit at #31?

Chadman--excellent analysis. Two players to consider however. Nate Solder is dropping in Round 1 and Marcus Cannon is on the rise after the Combine. Solder is a project and while Cannon is projected to be a OG he is also projected to potentially be able to slide outside to RT.

I think both those players will be in the mix as we get closer to the draft.

I do like the assessment of Aaron Williams who right now sits on top of my mock.

**steeler_fan_in_t.o.** · 03-07-2011, 10:41 AM

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Originally posted by Chadman

Let's look at it a different way- broken down by position and using Walter Footballs Round Rankings to decide if the player is a reach or not at #31. Chadman will highlight in GREEN the positives, and in RED the negatives on each player-

OG/OT
Stefan Wisniewski Penn St (BIG 10) Senior Round 2Gabe Carimi Wisconsin (BIG 10) Senior Top 25 Pick
Derek Sherrod Mississippi St (SEC) Senior Round 1-2Mike Pouncey Florida (SEC) Senior Top 31 PickJason Pinkston Pittsburgh (BIG EAST) Senior Round 3-4Ben Ijalana Villanova (CAA) Senior Round 1-2

DB
Rahim Moore UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 40 PickQuinton Carter Oklahoma (BIG 12) Senior Round 2-3Brandon Harris Miami ( ACC) Junior Round 1-2Aaron Williams Texas (BIG 12) Junior Round 1-2
DL
Christian Ballard Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Round 2-3Corey Luiget Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Top 25 Pick
Muhammed Wilkerson Temple (MID AMERICAN) JuniorTop 30 Pickor Phil Taylor Baylor (BIG 12) Senior Round 1-2Stephen Paea Oregon (PAC 10) Senior Round 2
Adrian Clayborn Iowa (BIG 10) Senior Top 20 Pick
All Other Positions
TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame (IA INDEPENDANTS) Junior Top 40 PickWR Jon Baldwin Pittsburgh ( BIG EAST) Junior Round 1-2OLB Akeem Ayers UCLA (PAC 10) Junior Top 30 PickOLB Brooks Reed Arizona (PAC 10) Senior Round 2RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois (BIG 10) Junior Round 1-2OLB Justin Houston Georgia (SEC) Junior Round 1-2

Just a bit of housekeeping here Chadman, but you did miss a green for Carimi (top 25 pick), Ijalama (round 1-2), and Luiget (Top 25 pick)

Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

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