Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

[Chadman]

A couple of years ago, Chadman put together a thread that went into some detail to show history, tendancies, rumours, facts, figures & even some cool pictures to provide you, the avid Planet reader, some fodder to sprout to your completely uninterested wives or neighbours at your next BBQ that will baffle them with your incredible knowledge & insight.

The aim is simple- to put together as much info as Chadman can collate in order for us to make some kind of educated guess at what to expect come the April draft.

You might ask- "How well did the analysis go last time Chadman?". Well, Chadman is humble enough to say that, with all the information gathered, with all the rumours collected, with all the FA movements noted, that Chadman's incredibly detailed mock draft yeilded an impressive 0% success rate for the Steelers- which is an achievement in itself because of just how astronomically wrong Chadman was. But while the Mock kinda sucked, the analysis was still pretty good.

So this year, 2011, Chadman will try it again.

It'll be an ongoing thread, so don't expect every scrap of information to be provided immediately, but with some patience, and with quite a lot of 'non-productive work time' involved, we will, hopefully, all fingers crossed, get close to finished with the analysis by the time the Draft comes around.

Maybe.

If you like- we could even run a small competition- use the information provided to supply your very own MOCK DRAFT OF AWESOMENESS. But maybe more on that later..

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

[url="http://www.planetsteelers.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5528&st=0&sk=t&sd=a"]viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5528&st=0&sk=t&sd=a[/url]

This was 2009's effort, for those with absolutely nothing to do..

[papillon]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

The first thing you should do is ignore the needs and evaluate the talent pool and try to determine who the best available player will be on the board in a position that the Steelers absolutely don't need to draft.

IMO, the positions that absolutely don't need to be drafted in round one this year are quarterback, running back and OLB.

It's not the needs, it's the best player available, that should really help someone of your astute research capabilities and football acumen.



Pappy

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

First off, we'll look at the DRAFT HISTORY under the Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert regime.

A quick recap for those without a photographic memory..

2007-
1. 15- LB LAWRENCE TIMMONS FLORIDA STATE- ACC
2. 14- LB LAMARR WOODLEY MICHIGAN- BIG TEN
3. 13- TE MATT SPEATH MINNESOTA- BIG TEN
4. 13- P DANIEL SEPULVEDA BAYLOR- BIG 12
4. 33- DE RYAN MCBEAN OKLAHOMA STATE- BIG 12
5. 19- OG CAMERON STEPHENSON RUTGERS- BIG EAST
5. 33- CB WILLIAM GAY LOUISEVILLE- BIG EAST
7. 17- WR DALLAS BAKER FLORIDA- SEC

2008-
1. 23- RB RASHARD MENDENHALL ILLINOIS- BIG TEN
2. 22- WR LIMAS SWEED TEXAS- BIG 12
3. 25- LB BRUCE DAVIS UCLA- PACIFIC 10
4. 31- OT TONY HILLS TEXAS- BIG 12
5. 21- QB DENNIS DIXON OREGON- PACIFIC 10
6. 22- LB MIKE HUMPAL IOWA- BIG 10
6. 28- FS RYAN MUNDY WEST VIRGINIA- BIG EAST

2009-
1. 32- DE ZIGGY HOOD MISSOURI- BIG 12
3. 15- OG KRAIG URBIK WISCONSIN- BIG 10
3. 20- WR MIKE WALLACE MISSISSIPPI- SEC
3. 32- CB KEENAN LEWIS OREGON STATE- PACIFIC 10
5. 32- CB JOE BURNETT CENTRAL FLORIDA- CONFERENCE USA
5. 33- FB FRANK SUMMERS UNLV- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 32- DE RA'SHON HARRIS OREGON- PACIFIC 10
7. 17- OC A.Q. SHIPLEY PENN STATE- BIG 10
7. 32- TE DAVID JOHNSON ARKANSAS STATE- SUN BELT

2010-
1. 18- OC MAURKICE POUNCEY FLORIDA- SEC
2. 20- OLB JASON WORILDS VIRGINIA TECH- ACC
3. 18- WR EMMANUEL SANDERS SOUTHERN METHODIST- CONFERENCE USA
4. 18- OLB THADDEUS GIBSON OHIO STATE- BIG 10
5. 20- OG CHRIS SCOTT TENNESSEE- SEC
5. 33- CB CREZDON BUTLER CLEMSON- ACC
5. 35- ILB STEVENSON SYLVESTER UTAH- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 19- RB JONATHAN DWYER GEORGIA TECH- ACC
6. 26- WR ANTONIO BROWN CENTRAL MICHIGAN- MID AMERICAN
7. 35- DE DOUG WORTHINGTON OHIO STATE- BIG 10

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

So what does this tell us? Maybe nothing? Maybe everything? Maybe there are clues hidden within clues!

By position, the Steelers under Tomlin/Colbert have drafted-

QB- 1
RB/FB- 3
WR- 5
TE- 2
OT- 1
OG- 3
OC- 2
DE- 4
DT- 0
LB- 7
CB- 4
S- 1
ST- 1

Of course, much of this would be dictated by the current roster & often the position the Steelers draft- which might directly effect how often they would draft, say, an OT. Interesting to note how many LB's, CB's, DE's & WR's are in the list.

Broken down by ROUND-
1ST ROUND- 1 LB, 1 RB, 1 DE, 1 OC
2ND ROUND- 2 LB's, 1 WR
3RD ROUND- 1 TE, 1 LB, 1 OG, 2 WR's, 1 CB
4TH ROUND- 1 ST, 1 DE, 1 OT, 1 LB
5TH ROUND- 2 OG's, 3 CB's, 1 QB, 1 FB, 1 LB
6TH ROUND- 1 LB, 1 S, 1 DE, 1 RB, 1 WR
7TH ROUND- 1 WR, 1 OC, 1 TE, 1 DE

Again, this might not tell us much, but the heavy dose of LB's in the first 3 rounds shows something of a tendancy, as does the heavier dosage of OL around the middle rounds. Highest DB under Tomlin/Colbert comes in Round 3. Only 1 DL in the first 3 rounds. Interesting- only 2 'skill' players in the first 2 rounds compared to 5 'meat heads'.

Broken down by School Division-
ACC- 4
BIG 10- 8
BIG 12- 5
BIG EAST- 3
SEC- 4
PAC 10- 4
CONFERENCE USA- 2
MOUNTAIN WEST- 2
SUN BELT- 1
MID AMERICAN- 1

There certainly seems to be a pattern of players out of the BIG 10 programs, although there is a liberal selection from other BIG 12, ACC, PAC 10 & SEC. But BIG 10 is nearly DOUBLE it's closest Division.

By Round, Position & Division-
ACC- 1 1st (LB), 1 2nd (LB), 1 5th (CB) & 1 6th (RB)
BIG 10- 1 1st (RB), 1 2nd (LB), 2 3rds (TE & OG), 1 4th (LB), 1 6th (LB), 2 7th's (OC & DE)
BIG 12- 1 1st (DE), 1 2nd (WR), 3 4th's (ST, DE & OT)
BIG EAST- 2 5th's (CB & OG), 1 6th (FS)
SEC- 1 1st (OC), 1 3rd (WR), 1 5th (OG), 1 7th (WR)
PAC 10- 2 3rd's (LB & WR), 1 5th (QB), 1 6th (DE)
CONFERENCE USA- 1 3rd (WR), 1 5th (CB)
MOUNTAIN WEST- 2 5th's (FB & LB)
SUN BELT- 1 7th (TE)
MID AMERICAN- 1 6th (WR)

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Looking at that, what we can reasonably assume is that-

A) BIG 10 PLAYERS/SCHEDULE/LEVEL OF COMPETITION IS VALUED BY THE FO.

B) THE STEELERS CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH LB'S

C) OR WR'S FOR THAT MATTER.

[Crash]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Thank God for Mendenhall or that 2008 class would rank among the worst in team history.

[steeler_george]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

This is one analysis solely based on how I see the Steelers draft in the first round.


10- Ziggy
09- Mendenhall
08- Timmons
07- Holmes*
06- Miller*
05- Roethlisberger
04- Polamalu
03- Simmons
02- Hampton
01- Burress **
00- Edwards **

1) They alternate alternate 1st round pick between their offense and defense.

* They have broke this routine a few times in the past 10 plus years, mostly due to haveing a franchise QB. This year look for us to select a CB/S in round one.

**I think those years we were just desperate to get WR.

2) No senoirs, mostly all sophmores r juniors.
Too lazy to do the reseach, but half the players I know were S/J.

3) Big programn. The exception is BEN.

4) BPA never for need.

5) All have been invited to the 30 interviews, exception I think was Mend.

[steeler_george]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Thank God for Mendenhall or that 2008 class would rank among the worst in team history.

Talk about a wasted Draft.

[StarSpangledSteeler]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

First off, we'll look at the DRAFT HISTORY under the Mike Tomlin/Kevin Colbert regime.

A quick recap for those without a photographic memory..

2007-
1. 15- LB LAWRENCE TIMMONS FLORIDA STATE- ACC
2. 14- LB LAMARR WOODLEY MICHIGAN- BIG TEN
3. 13- TE MATT SPEATH MINNESOTA- BIG TEN
4. 13- P DANIEL SEPULVEDA BAYLOR- BIG 12
4. 33- DE RYAN MCBEAN OKLAHOMA STATE- BIG 12
5. 19- OG CAMERON STEPHENSON RUTGERS- BIG EAST
5. 33- CB WILLIAM GAY LOUISEVILLE- BIG EAST
7. 17- WR DALLAS BAKER FLORIDA- SEC

2008-
1. 23- RB RASHARD MENDENHALL ILLINOIS- BIG TEN
2. 22- WR LIMAS SWEED TEXAS- BIG 12
3. 25- LB BRUCE DAVIS UCLA- PACIFIC 10
4. 31- OT TONY HILLS TEXAS- BIG 12
5. 21- QB DENNIS DIXON OREGON- PACIFIC 10
6. 22- LB MIKE HUMPAL IOWA- BIG 10
6. 28- FS RYAN MUNDY WEST VIRGINIA- BIG EAST

2009-
1. 32- DE ZIGGY HOOD MISSOURI- BIG 12
3. 15- OG KRAIG URBIK WISCONSIN- BIG 10
3. 20- WR MIKE WALLACE MISSISSIPPI- SEC
3. 32- CB KEENAN LEWIS OREGON STATE- PACIFIC 10
5. 32- CB JOE BURNETT CENTRAL FLORIDA- CONFERENCE USA
5. 33- FB FRANK SUMMERS UNLV- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 32- DE RA'SHON HARRIS OREGON- PACIFIC 10
7. 17- OC A.Q. SHIPLEY PENN STATE- BIG 10
7. 32- TE DAVID JOHNSON ARKANSAS STATE- SUN BELT

2010-
1. 18- OC MAURKICE POUNCEY FLORIDA- SEC
2. 20- OLB JASON WORILDS VIRGINIA TECH- ACC
3. 18- WR EMMANUEL SANDERS SOUTHERN METHODIST- CONFERENCE USA
4. 18- OLB THADDEUS GIBSON OHIO STATE- BIG 10
5. 20- OG CHRIS SCOTT TENNESSEE- SEC
5. 33- CB CREZDON BUTLER CLEMSON- ACC
5. 35- ILB STEVENSON SYLVESTER UTAH- MOUNTAIN WEST
6. 19- RB JONATHAN DWYER GEORGIA TECH- ACC
6. 26- WR ANTONIO BROWN CENTRAL MICHIGAN- MID AMERICAN
7. 35- DE DOUG WORTHINGTON OHIO STATE- BIG 10

Do we know which of these guys were brought in for interviews?

[Crash]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

This is going to be a sight. A draft in prime time, that occurs during a LOCKOUT......LOL

Goodell should go on Comedy Central.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

This is going to be a sight. A draft in prime time, that occurs during a LOCKOUT......LOL

Goodell should go on Comedy Central.

"The Comedy Central Roast of Roger Goodell"

What NFL fan wouldn't watch this? It must happen. Too bad Greg Giraldo is dead.

[papillon]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Thank God for Mendenhall or that 2008 class would rank among the worst in team history.

Talk about a wasted Draft.

I'm telling you all, Sweed is going to make this at least an average draft next year.

Pappy

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Let us continue...

Today, Chadman will look at potential 1st round picks, based on 4 mock draft sites that Chadman respects- draftdaddy.com, drafttek.com, draftcountdown.com & walterfootball.com - showing their mocked picks & the 4 picks surrounding the mocked Steelers (#29/#30/#32/#33) selection on each site, just so we can get an idea who they suspect might be available around pick #31. Then we'll use Chadman's secret herbs & spices to wittle the list down to the real candidates & see what we are left with. (Some players may be added at Chadman's discression if there seems to be an obvious player outside the surrounding picks).

[Chadman]

Re: Chadman's Awesome Offseason Draft/FA Analysis Thread..

Here is the list of potential players around pick #31 for the Steelers to choose from-

DRAFT DADDY-
#29-OT Gabe Carimi Wisconsin, #30- LB Brooks Reed Arizona, #31- CB Brandon Harris Miami, #32- DT Christian Ballard Iowa, #33- RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois
Extras added that fall beyond #31- OT Derek Sherrod Mississippi St, DT Corey Luiget Illinois, DT Muhammed Wilkerson Temple, DT Phil Taylor Baylor, OG Mike Pouncey Florida, FS Rahim Moore UCLA, WR Jon Baldwin Pitt, CB Aaron Williams Texas

DRAFTTEK-
#29- OC Stefan Wisniewski Penn St, #30- DT Phil Taylor Baylor, #31- FS Quinton Carter Oklahoma, #32- OLB Justin Houston Georgia, #33- OT/OG Jason Pinkston Pitt
Extras added that fall beyond #31- DT Stephen Paea Oregon, TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame, DE Adrian Clayborn Iowa, OG Mike Pouncey Florida

DRAFT COUNTDOWN-
#29- OT Gabe Carimi Wisconsin, #30- OLB Justin Houston Georgia, #31- OG Mike Pouncey Florida, #32- CB Aaron Williams Texas
No 2nd round included.

WALTER FOOTBALL-
#29- OG Mike Pouncey Florida, #30- OLB Akeem Ayers UCLA, #31- OG Ben Ijalana Villanova, #32- WR Jon Baldwin Pitt, #33- RB Mikel Leshoure Illinois
Extras added that fall below #31- FS Rahim Moore UCLA, DT Stephen Paea Oregon, CB Aaron Williams Texas, CB Brandon Harris Miami, TE Kyle Rudolph Notre Dame, OC Stefan Wisniewski Penn St