Packers Favorites by 2.5

[Jooser]

Just heard on Sirius NFL this morning. Thoughts? I like it actually.

[grotonsteel]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

I am loving it...I prefer Steelers being underdog....They seem to play better like that...


It will be poetic justice if Hotel wins a SB in Dallas....

[AkronSteel]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Thats completely fine with me. Tomlin and his staff can play the disrespect card and the team can play as underdogs. They always play better that way anyways. If the Steelers remain underdogs for the next two weeks I would expect to see them come out on fire and guys like Hines Ward to have huge games.

[flippy]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Seems like the wrong line to me. But the line is just to even out the betting.

[Iron Shiek]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Take the money line and win some extra money.

I say we win by 5 or more.

[ikestops85]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

GREAT!! I hope the line moves more in favor of the Packers. We definitely play better as underdogs.

We were pretty big favorites against the Pats, Saints, and Jets this year and we lost them all. We will take any advantage we can get.

[Oviedo]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

The Packers are the real deal. What everyone is missing is that their defense is winning these games for them not Rodgers. Their defense is awesome and will be the best we have faced all season.

Getting #7 will be a tough challenge.

[flippy]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Heard Skip Bayless say that more money is bet on the Packers than anyone else in the league. And the handicappers had the Chicago/GB game rated a pickem, but moved the line to GB+3 to start because they knew so much money would be bet on the Pack.

So accordingly, the Steelers are a .5 favorite if the expected bets on the Steelers/Pack are even.

[Sugar]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

The Packers are the real deal. What everyone is missing is that their defense is winning these games for them not Rodgers. Their defense is awesome and will be the best we have faced all season.

Getting #7 will be a tough challenge.

Agreed, Dom Capers has designed a house of horrors that will be tough to navigate. They will be hungry to win.

Of course, it's going to be a little awkward for me because I know AJ Hawks dad and brother and will be seeing them a lot in the next few weeks.

[NW Steeler]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

The Packers have ZERO players with SB experience. ZERO. That will have some impact, I believe. That said, I too believe that this will be the toughest matchup we have had all year and we will have to actually play a full 4 quarters to win #7. I realize that we turtled in the second half yesterday, but there were some mistakes made that we can't make on Super Sunday.

[NWNewell]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

The Packers have ZERO players with SB experience. ZERO. That will have some impact, I believe. That said, I too believe that this will be the toughest matchup we have had all year and we will have to actually play a full 4 quarters to win #7. I realize that we turtled in the second half yesterday, but there were some mistakes made that we can't make on Super Sunday.

I don't give much weight to prior SB experience. NO over INDY, NYG over NE, .......

[Iron Shiek]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Here is a great breakdown as to why Packers are favorites by Chad millman, betting writer on espninsider.com. Basically in Pro Bettor projections, Packers have a higher Power Rating. Power Rating, Shmower Rating, we will win!

I'd post the link but you have to have the insider access:

More than unemployment figures. More than exports and imports. More than inflation or housing prices and the cost of the new iPhone with Verizon service, the most dissected number in the country over the next two weeks will be the point spread for Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

So, let's dissect, shall we?

All week long, heading into the AFC and NFC Championship Games, I had been getting e-mails from bookmakers and analysts predicting what the likely spread in any of the possible matchups would be. Consistently, in a Green Bay Packers-Pittsburgh Steelers showdown, the Packers were anywhere from a 1.5- to a 3-point favorite. And, sure enough, after the Packers dispatched the Chicago Bears in the NFC title game, most books were speculating that Green Bay would open as a 2.5-point favorite over the Steelers (and a four-point fave over the New York Jets but, well, that is moot now).

However, this is how mercurial and fickle point spreads and the public and bookmakers' interpretation of the public can be: After the Steelers ran up 24 points on the Jets in the first half -- confusing Mark Sanchez with blitzes and making the Gang Green defense look like it was suffering from gangrene -- one of the sharps' favorite offshore books, Pinnacle, posted the game as pick 'em.

This made a lot of wiseguys I know giddier than Steven Tyler judging 16-year-olds on "American Idol." They smelled opportunity. "I am shocked anyone would not see that Green Bay is power-rated higher than Pittsburgh," Fezzik e-mailed me late Sunday night.

After the Jets piled on 19 unanswered points and came within some Brian Schottenheimer playcalling brain farts of potentially scoring even more, bookmakers re-evaluated. And by the time the game opened it was back to Green Bay minus-2 (at the Hilton) or Green Bay minus-3 (several spots offshore).

I tweeted out the number last night and was immediately met with dismay, confusion and anger, as if I had made the spread myself. Some samples: "I'll take Pitt!"; "This isn't justifiable!"; "How can a six seed be favored over a two seed?!?!?!"

Well, the truth is, as far as that last point is concerned, it happens more frequently than you would think. According to Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, the Indianapolis Colts, as the No. 2 seed out of the AFC four years ago, were favored over the NFC's top-seeded Bears. And, in Big Ben's first Super Bowl, the Steelers were the No. 6 seed playing against No. 1 seed Seattle but came into the game favored.

The other truth is, despite all the protests and love for the Steelers, most of you want the Packers to be favored. That is how you've been betting during the playoffs. Against the Philadelphia Eagles, despite being an underdog, Green Bay got all the money from the public. Same thing against the Atlanta Falcons, when the sharps piled on and took the Packers, too. Even in Chicago in the NFC title game as favorites, the Packers got all the love from the public. This happens a lot in the NFL: teams get hot and fans want to bet them, no matter what the point spread is. "The perception is that Green Bay has handled everyone and has done it on the road," said Pete Korner of the linemaking consulting group The Sports Club. "The bettors have played them hard in every game and that is one of our telltale flags for making them favorites."

Added Teddy Covers: "The market is just more impressed with three road wins by the Packers than two sloppy home wins by the Steelers. Also, at least early bettors are thinking that Green Bay's offense is helped by the fast track in Dallas. The Steelers thrive in sloppy conditions. The Packers looked unstoppable in Atlanta."

For fun, let's do something that actual wiseguys do when dissecting the spread: let's actually dissect the team. There's a reason Fezzik was buying like mad when the game was listed at pick 'em. During the regular season the Packers suffered six losses. However, each one was a peculiar aberration. The franchise-high in penalties against the Bears that cost them a win in Week 3; overtime losses to the Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins; a three-point loss at Atlanta in a game in which Aaron Rodgers fumbled at the Falcons' 1-yard line; losses to the Detroit Lions when Rodgers had been knocked out and to the New England Patriots when Matt Flynn was forced to start; plus the 15 guys on injured reserve. Since Rodgers came back from a concussion against the Giants in Week 16, a game the Pack won 45-17, they have steamrolled the Bears, the Eagles, the Falcons and the Bears again.

But, truly, it's the Packers' defense that handicappers point to as the reason they are power-rated so much higher. A couple of weeks ago I did a podcast with Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com, who pointed out that it was Green Bay that had the second-best passing efficiency rating for defense in the league. In the playoffs, the QB rating allowed by Green Bay, a stat wiseguys love, is just 64, nearly 20 points better than the Steelers. And in one more game than Pittsburgh, the Packers have given up just eight more total points.

As Fezzik pointed out to me last night, this Green Bay team "is a juggernaut."

It's also the Super Bowl favorite.

[aggiebones]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Anyone have a stat on who's won the most SBs, the favorite or the underdog?

[aggiebones]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

Nice betting article:
[url="http://www.sportsuntapped.com/superbowl-betting-and-pointspread-history-14098/"]http://www.sportsuntapped.com/superbowl ... ory-14098/[/url]


Looks like the underdog has taken 8 of last 12, including the Steelers once.

[NW Steeler]

Re: Packers Favorites by 2.5

The Packers have ZERO players with SB experience. ZERO. That will have some impact, I believe. That said, I too believe that this will be the toughest matchup we have had all year and we will have to actually play a full 4 quarters to win #7. I realize that we turtled in the second half yesterday, but there were some mistakes made that we can't make on Super Sunday.

I don't give much weight to prior SB experience. NO over INDY, NYG over NE, .......

But the fact that we have a roster full of guys that have been there once, some twice, it can't hurt, right?