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I first want to say, I normally don't post Dutch articles. I know a few of you guys really don't like the man. If this article offends the membership I will take it down. But, he sends me articles and this one is the most interesting I have read in awhile. I thought some of you might enjoy the read.
PITTSBURGH VS BALTIMORE
By Dutch
I don’t know about you, but as a sports fan it doesn’t get any better than the next two weekends for me. The NFL playoffs beginning with the divisional round is something that I just can’t get out of my mind throughout the week. It starts on Tuesday for me. As a fan, all you try to do is get a feel for the game. You want to envision how this game is going to play out. This is one that I am really looking forward to because I think some big things are about to happen.
Is Roethlisberger ready to explode onto another level? Will the public finally find out why Rex Ryan runs his mouth so much? Will we all find out that the Falcons were a bunch of frauds? Could Seattle be the team that comes out of nowhere to shock the world? Oh my!
I hate to talk about the Las Vegas line, but this 3 to 3.5 job the odds makers put out there is quite interesting.
The line is off. But why?
That’s the real question. Were the odds makers expecting a lot of Baltimore money? Or do they simply have a lean to Baltimore?
I believe this line is low because the public thinks that the Ravens are about as good as the Steelers.
The public is wrong.
To be sure, I called upon good friend and famed capper from Berkely California, Bob Stoll. His numbers agreed with mine. Stoll said that one could justify a line of 6.5 to 7 points here. Sure, these two teams tend to play an even game when they meet up. Pittsburgh has more difference makers than the Ravens. But the Ravens strength is at defensive line and they neutralize the Steelers offense by attacking their offensive line. The games often come down to the wire with the playmakers from Pittsburgh, be it Troy or Ben making the big plays.
So why should this one be any different? Well, here are a few reasons.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have legit championship stats. It’s normally that simple in the playoffs. But there is another factor at play here. I believe Roethlisberger is about to take his game to another level. Has anyone noticed the Steelers offensive line lately? Far from great. But if that offensive line could peek, I believe it is peeking right now, at the right time. The line has given Roethlisberger solid protection with a decent pocket to throw from beginning with the Jets game in week 15. And spare me that Carolina and the Browns stink. Carolina had a top 10 defense throughout the year. It was their 8th worst offense the NFL has seen in the past 30 years that gave them trouble. Cleveland didn’t give up 30 points to anyone before playing the Steelers. But even in the loss to the Jets, I was very impressed with a line that is normally unimpressive.
Inside the numbers
Yards per pass differential typically call these games in the post season. It went 3-1 in the wild card round with Seattle being the only team that won despite having a season long yards per pass differential that was lower than their opponent last week. The reason for this is that the NFL playoffs are all about what team can best stretch the field and prevent teams from stretching the field. By and large, championship teams throw the ball early, stake their team to a lead, all the while their pass rush tees off on the opposing quarterback who has been put in a one dimensional situation. In order to be able to stretch the field against the top defenses that you see in the playoffs, you must have an efficient passing game. We judge that efficiency in the pass game not by looking at over all yards or the amount of pass attempts. We look at one combined key stat. Yards per pass attempt. And Defensive yards per pass attempt. When you subtract the two, you get yards per pass differential. One key thing about this stat is that if a team has negative yards per pass differential on the season, they have a very small chance at winning the Super bowl. We have only had 3 teams that ever managed to win the whole thing while finishing in the negative for the season. One team, the 2000 Ravens was all an all defensive team that that were masters of preventing a team from stretching the field. The 07 Giants were a team that just got hot at the right time. The 01 Patriots just cheated. 2 of the three teams above managed to pull off incredible upsets. So while no stat will give you the winner every time, if you’re a team with SB aspirations, you better find yourself on the positive end of yards per pass differential season average. Here are all the SB teams since 1972 and their Yards per pass differentials.
1. 1991 Skins +3.2
2. 1972 Miami +2.8
3. 1989 49ers +2.8
4. 1973 Miami +2.4
5. 1999 Rams +2.3
6. 1977 Dallas +2.3
7. 1979 Steelers +2.2
8. 1994 49ers +2.0
9. 1975 Steelers +1.9
10. 2005 Steelers +1.8
11. 1978 Steelers +1.8
12. 1984 49ers +1.8
13. 1976 Oakland +1.8
14. 1985 Bears +1.7
15. 1992 Dallas +1.7
16. 1993 Dallas +1.6
17. 2006 Colts +1.7
18. 2008 Steelers +1.6
19. 1996 Packers +1.6
20. 2009 Saints +1.5
21. 1997 Denver +1.4
22. 1998 Denver +1.3
23. 1981 49ers +1.3
24. 1990 NYGiants +1.3
25. 1982 Skins +1.2
26. 2002 Bucs +1.2
27. 2004 Patriots +1.2
28. 1995 Dallas +1.2
29. 2003 Patriots +1.1
30. 1974 Steelers +1.0
31. 1987 Skins +1.1
32. 1988 49ers +1.0
33. 1983 Raiders +0.8
34. 1986 NYGiants +0.6
35. 1980 Oakland +0.1
36. 2001 Patriots -0.1
37. 2000 Ravens -0.2
38. 2007 Giants -0.3
Furthermore, if you need more evidence that yards per pass differential stat can tell the difference, consider that the 09 Colts (tied with SD), 08 Steelers, 07 Patriots, 06 Colts, and 05 Steelers all led the AFC in yards per pass differential and all made it to the Super bowl.
Steelers +1.7
Packers +1.6
Patriots +0.9
Ravens +0.9
Bears +0.3
NY Jets -0.1
Atlanta -0.1
Seattle -0.6
But this is not the only statistical reason that I like the Steelers in this matchup Saturday. Yards per play differential is another mightily important stat.
Steelers +1.0
Ravens +0.1
With the improved play of the line and the continued development of Mike Wallace who appears to be unstoppable, Roethlisberger has a sense of calmness about him on the field. He’s going through all of his reads, checking down when necessary, and getting everyone involved. My gut feeling is that Pittsburgh and the sports nation is about to see Roethlisberger take his game to another level. I could be wrong. But that’s how I feel right now after watching him play down the stretch. Look for the Steelers to be able to move the football more than the Ravens will. Ravens backers like to tout the running of Ray rice. But Baltimore only averaged 3.7 yards per rush against a schedule of defenses that allowed 4.1 on average. Pittsburgh allowed just 3.0 Yards per rush against offenses that would average 4.1 per carry. In other words, Flacco will be stuck without a running attack that I feel he desperately needs to win a game like this. Baltimore needs to win the turnover battle and have great red zone performance to win this game.
Pittsburgh just needs to play ball.
Steelers 27 Ravens 10
PITTSBURGH VS BALTIMORE
By Dutch
I don’t know about you, but as a sports fan it doesn’t get any better than the next two weekends for me. The NFL playoffs beginning with the divisional round is something that I just can’t get out of my mind throughout the week. It starts on Tuesday for me. As a fan, all you try to do is get a feel for the game. You want to envision how this game is going to play out. This is one that I am really looking forward to because I think some big things are about to happen.
Is Roethlisberger ready to explode onto another level? Will the public finally find out why Rex Ryan runs his mouth so much? Will we all find out that the Falcons were a bunch of frauds? Could Seattle be the team that comes out of nowhere to shock the world? Oh my!
I hate to talk about the Las Vegas line, but this 3 to 3.5 job the odds makers put out there is quite interesting.
The line is off. But why?
That’s the real question. Were the odds makers expecting a lot of Baltimore money? Or do they simply have a lean to Baltimore?
I believe this line is low because the public thinks that the Ravens are about as good as the Steelers.
The public is wrong.
To be sure, I called upon good friend and famed capper from Berkely California, Bob Stoll. His numbers agreed with mine. Stoll said that one could justify a line of 6.5 to 7 points here. Sure, these two teams tend to play an even game when they meet up. Pittsburgh has more difference makers than the Ravens. But the Ravens strength is at defensive line and they neutralize the Steelers offense by attacking their offensive line. The games often come down to the wire with the playmakers from Pittsburgh, be it Troy or Ben making the big plays.
So why should this one be any different? Well, here are a few reasons.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have legit championship stats. It’s normally that simple in the playoffs. But there is another factor at play here. I believe Roethlisberger is about to take his game to another level. Has anyone noticed the Steelers offensive line lately? Far from great. But if that offensive line could peek, I believe it is peeking right now, at the right time. The line has given Roethlisberger solid protection with a decent pocket to throw from beginning with the Jets game in week 15. And spare me that Carolina and the Browns stink. Carolina had a top 10 defense throughout the year. It was their 8th worst offense the NFL has seen in the past 30 years that gave them trouble. Cleveland didn’t give up 30 points to anyone before playing the Steelers. But even in the loss to the Jets, I was very impressed with a line that is normally unimpressive.
Inside the numbers
Yards per pass differential typically call these games in the post season. It went 3-1 in the wild card round with Seattle being the only team that won despite having a season long yards per pass differential that was lower than their opponent last week. The reason for this is that the NFL playoffs are all about what team can best stretch the field and prevent teams from stretching the field. By and large, championship teams throw the ball early, stake their team to a lead, all the while their pass rush tees off on the opposing quarterback who has been put in a one dimensional situation. In order to be able to stretch the field against the top defenses that you see in the playoffs, you must have an efficient passing game. We judge that efficiency in the pass game not by looking at over all yards or the amount of pass attempts. We look at one combined key stat. Yards per pass attempt. And Defensive yards per pass attempt. When you subtract the two, you get yards per pass differential. One key thing about this stat is that if a team has negative yards per pass differential on the season, they have a very small chance at winning the Super bowl. We have only had 3 teams that ever managed to win the whole thing while finishing in the negative for the season. One team, the 2000 Ravens was all an all defensive team that that were masters of preventing a team from stretching the field. The 07 Giants were a team that just got hot at the right time. The 01 Patriots just cheated. 2 of the three teams above managed to pull off incredible upsets. So while no stat will give you the winner every time, if you’re a team with SB aspirations, you better find yourself on the positive end of yards per pass differential season average. Here are all the SB teams since 1972 and their Yards per pass differentials.
1. 1991 Skins +3.2
2. 1972 Miami +2.8
3. 1989 49ers +2.8
4. 1973 Miami +2.4
5. 1999 Rams +2.3
6. 1977 Dallas +2.3
7. 1979 Steelers +2.2
8. 1994 49ers +2.0
9. 1975 Steelers +1.9
10. 2005 Steelers +1.8
11. 1978 Steelers +1.8
12. 1984 49ers +1.8
13. 1976 Oakland +1.8
14. 1985 Bears +1.7
15. 1992 Dallas +1.7
16. 1993 Dallas +1.6
17. 2006 Colts +1.7
18. 2008 Steelers +1.6
19. 1996 Packers +1.6
20. 2009 Saints +1.5
21. 1997 Denver +1.4
22. 1998 Denver +1.3
23. 1981 49ers +1.3
24. 1990 NYGiants +1.3
25. 1982 Skins +1.2
26. 2002 Bucs +1.2
27. 2004 Patriots +1.2
28. 1995 Dallas +1.2
29. 2003 Patriots +1.1
30. 1974 Steelers +1.0
31. 1987 Skins +1.1
32. 1988 49ers +1.0
33. 1983 Raiders +0.8
34. 1986 NYGiants +0.6
35. 1980 Oakland +0.1
36. 2001 Patriots -0.1
37. 2000 Ravens -0.2
38. 2007 Giants -0.3
Furthermore, if you need more evidence that yards per pass differential stat can tell the difference, consider that the 09 Colts (tied with SD), 08 Steelers, 07 Patriots, 06 Colts, and 05 Steelers all led the AFC in yards per pass differential and all made it to the Super bowl.
Steelers +1.7
Packers +1.6
Patriots +0.9
Ravens +0.9
Bears +0.3
NY Jets -0.1
Atlanta -0.1
Seattle -0.6
But this is not the only statistical reason that I like the Steelers in this matchup Saturday. Yards per play differential is another mightily important stat.
Steelers +1.0
Ravens +0.1
With the improved play of the line and the continued development of Mike Wallace who appears to be unstoppable, Roethlisberger has a sense of calmness about him on the field. He’s going through all of his reads, checking down when necessary, and getting everyone involved. My gut feeling is that Pittsburgh and the sports nation is about to see Roethlisberger take his game to another level. I could be wrong. But that’s how I feel right now after watching him play down the stretch. Look for the Steelers to be able to move the football more than the Ravens will. Ravens backers like to tout the running of Ray rice. But Baltimore only averaged 3.7 yards per rush against a schedule of defenses that allowed 4.1 on average. Pittsburgh allowed just 3.0 Yards per rush against offenses that would average 4.1 per carry. In other words, Flacco will be stuck without a running attack that I feel he desperately needs to win a game like this. Baltimore needs to win the turnover battle and have great red zone performance to win this game.
Pittsburgh just needs to play ball.
Steelers 27 Ravens 10
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