Watt 3/$124M with $108 Guaranteed

[feltdizz]

Mike Tomlin has ruined TJ Watt's legacy.

Mike Tomlin has ruined Mike Tomlin’s legacy.. lol

[NorthCoast]

Mike Tomlin has ruined TJ Watt's legacy.

Clearly... and obviously. After all he let Watt train away from camp during mandatory minicamp. Coddling....

[NorthCoast]

What is the appropriate snap % for Watt going into this season? His career average is 83%.

Here is PFF's breakdown on snap count by position for the #1 starter on each team.

Position	Snap count of average No.1 player
iOL	99.6%
OT	97.4%
S	95.2%
LB	92.3%
CB	92.3%
WR	85.3%
QB	83.0%
ED	81.1%
DI	71.7%
TE	71.3%
HB	56.4%

(sidenote; interesting that starting QBs only averaged 83% of snaps. A sign of injuries happening I guess)

[Northern_Blitz]

I hope we can bring his total snap count down. Especially early in the season so that he's fresher late.

I think the best way to do this is for the offense to hold the ball more. Although we were in about the middle of the pack last year (ToP 15th, plays run 14th, opponent plays run 13th lowest). So not bad (I thought it was going to be worse).

And since we have at least 3 (hopefully 4 with Sawyer?) edges to rotate, I think reducing his %age of snaps is good too.

[Buzz]

I hope we can bring his total snap count down. Especially early in the season so that he's fresher late.

I think the best way to do this is for the offense to hold the ball more. Although we were in about the middle of the pack last year (ToP 15th, plays run 14th, opponent plays run 13th lowest). So not bad (I thought it was going to be worse).

And since we have at least 3 (hopefully 4 with Sawyer?) edges to rotate, I think reducing his %age of snaps is good too.

He's the highest paid defensive player in the league... he should be able to play as many snaps as he did last season, and be effective
I think moving him around and being less predictable with his usage will help more than anything

[NorthCoast]

He's the highest paid defensive player in the league... he should be able to play as many snaps as he did last season, and be effective
I think moving him around and being less predictable with his usage will help more than anything

Watt's only the highest paid until Jerrah signs Parsons to a blockbuster deal.....

[NorthCoast]

So Watt isn't worth even one first round pick but this guy is worth two??? Is age really that much of a difference maker? What am I missing?

A hypothetical by The Athletic:

• The Cowboys trade: Parsons, a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2027 seventh-round pick to …
• The Bears, who send back: a 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick, 2027 third-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick.

[Northern_Blitz]

So Watt isn't worth even one first round pick but this guy is worth two??? Is age really that much of a difference maker? What am I missing?

A hypothetical by The Athletic:

• The Cowboys trade: Parsons, a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2027 seventh-round pick to …
• The Bears, who send back: a 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick, 2027 third-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick.

There's a pretty big difference between 26 and 30. Think of what we could have received for Watt if we traded him when he was 26.

My guess is that is too much to give up though. Especially since CHI'd also have to make him the highest paid non-QB in the league.

They picked the right team though. The Bears are stupid. Or maybe I'm just judging them too harshly for the Claypool trade?

[Mr.wizard]

What is the appropriate snap % for Watt going into this season? His career average is 83%.

Here is PFF's breakdown on snap count by position for the #1 starter on each team.

Position	Snap count of average No.1 player
iOL	99.6%
OT	97.4%
S	95.2%
LB	92.3%
CB	92.3%
WR	85.3%
QB	83.0%
ED	81.1%
DI	71.7%
TE	71.3%
HB	56.4%

(sidenote; interesting that starting QBs only averaged 83% of snaps. A sign of injuries happening I guess)

Lol I was about say, no wonder our offense sucks, the QB is only the field for 83% of the snaps. I think Watt probably plays around 80-85%, I think he should feast this year with the coverage guys we have in the secondary and their ability to play man coverage.

[feltdizz]

So Watt isn't worth even one first round pick but this guy is worth two??? Is age really that much of a difference maker? What am I missing?

A hypothetical by The Athletic:

• The Cowboys trade: Parsons, a 2027 fourth-round pick and a 2027 seventh-round pick to …
• The Bears, who send back: a 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick, 2027 third-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick.

yes.. age is a big difference maker.

[Northern_Blitz]

Lol I was about say, no wonder our offense sucks, the QB is only the field for 83% of the snaps. I think Watt probably plays around 80-85%, I think he should feast this year with the coverage guys we have in the secondary and their ability to play man coverage.

This is a good point Wizard.

My initial reaction to the Fitz trade was negative because I don't like the idea of getting older on the D (and I think Smith is over-rated due to an outlier year last season).

But if the 3 CBs can make it hard for even good QBs to get those super-quick releases, we'll hopefully return to the sack numbers we had when Butler was DC.

[feltdizz]

There's a pretty big difference between 26 and 30. Think of what we could have received for Watt if we traded him when he was 26.

My guess is that is too much to give up though. Especially since CHI'd also have to make him the highest paid non-QB in the league.

They picked the right team though. The Bears are stupid. Or maybe I'm just judging them too harshly for the Claypool trade?

Bears traded 2 first round picks a 3rd and a 6th for Khalil Mack and 2 picks in later rounds.

They had a 12 win season his first year and then never won more than 8 games his next 3 years.

another reason I wanted to trade Watt. Its too easy to neutralize an OLB. He may win a few games for you but without a reap offense its all for show IMO. Hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle with AR but I doubt it.

[Northern_Blitz]

Bears traded 2 first round picks a 3rd and a 6th for Khalil Mack and 2 picks in later rounds.

They had a 12 win season his first year and then never won more than 8 games his next 3 years.

another reason I wanted to trade Watt. Its too easy to neutralize an OLB. He may win a few games for you but without a reap offense its all for show IMO. Hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle with AR but I doubt it.

I'd be OK with trading any player (except a top ~5 QB) depending on return.

But there was no way that the team was going to trade Watt. He's the face of the franchise. It's a business decision more than a football one.

And if we were going to get a last 1st or a 2nd at best, it probably wouldn't be worth it.

I was hoping that we'd play more hardball on the contract though. Like his 2nd contract, it looks like we lost on basically every dimension (AAV, guarantees, term, etc).

[NorthCoast]

yes.. age is a big difference maker.

Not buying it. That difference is one contract extension. (Watt might not be worth a first but I am certain Parsons isn't worth 2)

[feltdizz]

Not buying it. That difference is one contract extension. (Watt might not be worth a first but I am certain Parsons isn't worth 2)

Its a young man’s game. Do you really think age doesn’t factor into this when we all know once you hit your 30’s you are on the clock?