Charting Watt vs Garrett

[NorthCoast]

Which one is worth $40M for the next 4 years?

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2radjBP][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2radjBP]T.J. Watt[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2raeWfQ][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2raeWfQ]M Garrett[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

EDIT: Adding T Hendrickson to the mix since he is another holdout in camp hoping for a new deal

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2ra9nn2][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2ra9nn2]T. Hendrickson[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[feltdizz]

Hendrickson’s chart trends the best but have to remember that defense SUCKS so he probably had more chances to make plays since they struggled to get off the field.

[Northern_Blitz]

Which one is worth $40M for the next 4 years?

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2radjBP][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2radjBP]T.J. Watt[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2raeWfQ][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2raeWfQ]M Garrett[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

EDIT: Adding T Hendrickson to the mix since he is another holdout in camp hoping for a new deal

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2ra9nn2][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2ra9nn2]T. Hendrickson[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

NC

When I have my students make graphs with comparisons like this, I always have to harp on them to keep the y-axis scales the same in all three graphs so the reader can tell the difference in the size of the values.

Without doing that, someone might think that all three of these players have about the same number of tackles (for example).

An ever better comparison would be to have separate graphs for each stat with lines for each player. Then it's easier to compare.

You could also make the x-axis "age" instead of "season". Although since all of these players are similar in age (Garrett 29, the other two are 30), it probably doesn't matter too much.

[NorthCoast]

NC

When I have my students make graphs with comparisons like this, I always have to harp on them to keep the y-axis scales the same in all three graphs so the reader can tell the difference in the size of the values.

Without doing that, someone might think that all three of these players have about the same number of tackles (for example).

An ever better comparison would be to have separate graphs for each stat with lines for each player. Then it's easier to compare.

You could also make the x-axis "age" instead of "season". Although since all of these players are similar in age (Garrett 29, the other two are 30), it probably doesn't matter too much.

You are correct. Thought about that after I posted them but too lazy to go back and redo. But I was mostly focused on the trends rather than the numbers themselves.
Here's the redo. It's also clear that Watt is a high variance player compared to the other two.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2rapKN3][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rapKN3]Sacks vs. Season (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2rarmAr][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rarmAr]QB Hits vs Season (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2raqFMP][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2raqFMP]Comb Tackles vs. Season (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[The Standard]

Watt was at a disadvantage. He didn't get to play against Dan Moore twice a year.

[NorthCoast]

Watt was at a disadvantage. He didn't get to play against Dan Moore twice a year.

LOL. Good point. Gonna be a real interesting year watching Jones trying to block Garrett. But Garrett also played all over the DL unlike one-trick pony Watt on the right.

[Northern_Blitz]

You are correct. Thought about that after I posted them but too lazy to go back and redo. But I was mostly focused on the trends rather than the numbers themselves.
Here's the redo. It's also clear that Watt is a high variance player compared to the other two.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2rapKN3][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rapKN3]Sacks vs. Season (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2rarmAr][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2rarmAr]QB Hits vs Season (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2raqFMP][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2raqFMP]Comb Tackles vs. Season (1)[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

These look good.

I think I'd disagree with Watt being a high variance player. He only played 10 games in 2022, so his numbers look though there.

Maybe we mean different things when we say variance?

If you scale by start, you might see this better. Maybe even better would be to scale by snap? That might give some interesting results if TJ ends up playing more snaps than the other guys (because he plays a high percentage of snaps and we have had an offense that sucked at staying on the field for a good portion of TJ's career).

Otherwise, I think the conclusion is "TJ got hurt and missed 7 games once".

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

These look good.

I think I'd disagree with Watt being a high variance player. He only played 10 games in 2022, so his numbers look though there.

Maybe we mean different things when we say variance?

If you scale by start, you might see this better. Maybe even better would be to scale by snap? That might give some interesting results if TJ ends up playing more snaps than the other guys (because he plays a high percentage of snaps and we have had an offense that sucked at staying on the field for a good portion of TJ's career).

Otherwise, I think the conclusion is "TJ got hurt and missed 7 games once".

Agreed. Put into context, TJ is both the best, and highest ceiling player based on these metrics. Garrett is very consistent and hasn't missed more than 1 game since 2020, and Hendrickson is probably where he's expected at a slight notch below the elites.

[Flasteel]

I like these career stats:

Myles Garrett		T.J. Watt
	Head-to-Head
3-8-1	Reg Season	8-3-1
1-0	Playoffs	0-1
	Overall Stats
117	G	121
104	AV	105
0	Int	7
0	Yds	48
102.5	Sk	108.0
250	Solo	331
20	FF	33
6	FR	12
	Awards & Honors
	Championships
6	Pro Bowl	7
6	All Pro	6
1	AP Def. PoY	1