Watt a no show at mandatory camp

[Northern_Blitz]

What do you think? I don't think Watt deserves it. Just because the dumba**es in Cleveland want to pay Garrett, we shouldn't pay Watt that much. I know he was hurt at the end the last two years but that's not the Steelers fault. He's not going to get paid for what he's going to do. What did he do, when the pressure was on and we needed him he was a no show. He's on the downside.

This is going to hinge on how the word "deserves" is defined.

Basically, the best you can hope for on a 2nd contract for an elite player is that a guy lives up to it. I think Watt has.

I think a 3rd contract will always be an over payment. Except for maybe Cam...who somehow mostly avoided aging.

Watt will almost certainly be overpaid on this contract.

But hopefully not until the last couple years (hopefully not at all).

And if he can deliver two very good seasons, then maybe by the time he's declining his contract doesn't look too bad after cap inflation.

[Northern_Blitz]

and now some of you see why I wanted to trade Watt. $40 Mill or even $35 Mill per year is too much for a 31 year old player with zero stats his last 5’games.

I think we all saw why before.

But it doesn't really change the fact that the Steelers are going to extend him.

I think most of us would trade him away if it gave us a decent shot at a franchise QB.

[Northern_Blitz]

In a sense, I suppose that's what we're doing?

If we weren't, we probably would have signed a deal a while ago.

But in the end, I think he probably has more leverage than the team does. And there isn't much downside for him to wait it out to see if the market moves up even more.

It will be an over payment. Hopefully, he has at least 2 really good years left.

I suppose real hard ball would be to threaten the tag twice.

I don't know what the contract would look like if we limited the guaranteed money to 2x franchise tags.

I don't know if the league has moved away from classifying our edge rushers are LBs to DEs. But that wasn't the case when we tagged Dupree. IIRC, Bud was tagged as a LB...filed a grievance...and lost. Maybe it doesn't matter as much anymore because the LB tag is actually higher (so basically no ILB will ever get tagged, just like no OC will ever get tagged...or given a 5th year option).

OTC predicts 2026 franchise tags to be $28.1MM for LBs and $26.5MM for DEs.

While his AAV is bigger than this, his base salary in 2025 is "only" $21MM. So I suppose that it would go up to the tag number. $28.1MM.

Then if tagged a 2nd time, the player gets a 20% pump in pay (assuming the tag value doesn't go up by more than 20%).

So I think two tags would be: $28.1MM and $33.72MM. Definitely less than he'll make in the first two years if he gets a contract like Garrett's.

I think the Steelers usually try to fight pretty hard for the numbers from the double tag. Or at least that's what they did with Bell. I don't remember discussions with Ben re: double tags. But I think we generally extended him early so it wasn't an issue.

My guess is that both sides play hardball here. And Watt ends up getting something close to (if not a little more) than Garrett. Maybe the price for that is not having as many guarantees as in the last contract?

Of course, I don't think there's any way that he would play under two tags (just like Bell didn't). He'd likely sit out and try to force a trade. Because it's a massive underpayment vs. the current market.

["BuzzNuter"]

I don't believe the Steelers are going to pay Watt 40M$. He's got one year left. Let him play it out.

I mean he gets a lot of publicity but he didn't show up at the end the last two years. Art knows this. It doesn't take a sophisticated defensive expert to figure that out. Cam doesn't get paid top 3 money at his position. Watt will have to set his sights lower. We let Troy walk. He was certainly on the downhill ans we played hardball with him. TJ is definitely a good player but he won't make 40M$ with the Steelers.

We have a new D-lineman and Herbig and Highsmith. Wilson will get better and our D backfield looks better on paper.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

last year of a deal players want that new contract. I understand why he is doing it but yall also know I wanted to trade him because if he gets another monster contract it will handcuff us and we haven’t really benefitted from these big money contracts.

I agree

I know why he's doing it and it's not unusual in this situation. I still don't like it.
I started floating the idea of trading him last season.
I don't want to be the team forking over the huge contract because chances are the value will be gone.

[hackjam]

Last time he did a "hold in", where he was there but didn't participate (or had very minimal participation).

I think the last CBA made holdouts very rare because teams couldn't retroactively waive fines like they could in the past. But maybe it's more likely on 3rd contracts. I think that the DL for KC held out last year or the year before.

I think the fines are automatically applied for every day missed. But maybe that's only actual camp?

I suppose that being on the 3rd contract makes it easier to pay the fines (if they're applied for minicamp).

I expect that it will go to the wire again with TJ. He's clearly happy to play hardball on contracts to get as much FMV as he can. And at the end, we'll get another piece about how he really wanted to just come play the whole time and it was his agent and the Steelers holding everything up.

In the end, I don't fault players for trying to get every penny they can for sacrificing their bodies (and longevity) for the game.

I wasn't against Bell or Ben trying either. But I was probably more opposed to giving them the big offers we gave them. The new CBA forces teams to spend money. And since we've been so bad at drafting (particularly on the offensive side), we don't really have anyone home grown to pay money to...so we'll overpay in UFA (DK this year, someone else...maybe two other people next year).

I'd rather they got this done early. But I think the only way to do that is to overpay him by even more. He knows that there are still a couple big deals that are out there even after skull-splitter signed.

Yeah I remembered him being in Latrobe last time but couldn't recall whether he was at mini camp or not.

Regardless, it's probably him and Hendrickson each waiting for the shoe to drop for the other. And I guess Parsons too.

[hackjam]

When you are shut out by a rookie tackle in the playoffs you should come back to the team with hat in hand.....

Dan Rooney would play some hardball with Watt.

To your point, I doubt he even sniffs a 3rd contract in the Cowher era. Did anyone notable get a big 3rd contract from the Steelers in the first 10 or so years of the salary cap? For a while, it seemed like they maybe let guys go a touch early (but honestly it's not like many guys killed it after leaving the Steelers). It seemed like that all changed when they tried to keep the defense together to make another run after 2010.

[Chucktownsteeler]

Yes, I don’t want to overpay him. I am afraid they will. He stunk up the joint the last 5 games or so. Plus he was to stubborn to move around, making it easier for teams to game plan against him.

i hope we don’t overpay him, I am afraid we will.

[hawaiiansteel]

Yes, I don’t want to overpay him. I am afraid they will. He stunk up the joint the last 5 games or so. Plus he was to stubborn to move around, making it easier for teams to game plan against him.

i hope we don’t overpay him, I am afraid we will.

Me too.

My prediction is it will be a long holdout that lasts through the preseason, but in the end we will pay him his $40 million per.

[NorthCoast]

I don't believe the Steelers are going to pay Watt 40M$. He's got one year left. Let him play it out.

I mean he gets a lot of publicity but he didn't show up at the end the last two years. Art knows this. It doesn't take a sophisticated defensive expert to figure that out. Cam doesn't get paid top 3 money at his position. Watt will have to set his sights lower. We let Troy walk. He was certainly on the downhill ans we played hardball with him. TJ is definitely a good player but he won't make 40M$ with the Steelers.

We have a new D-lineman and Herbig and Highsmith. Wilson will get better and our D backfield looks better on paper.

Highsmith isn't the same without Watt on the other side. Used to be that the Steelers didn't win when Watt didn't play. Last season they were losing a bunch while Watt was playing. His injury history puts his longevity in question.

So, how did Watt's bro finish his career at age 31? Here's a few numbers:

• Age 31: played 16 games, a blazing 5 sacks and 52 tackles
• Age 32: followed that up with a 7 game season, 1 sack and 16 tackles
• Age 33: for the finale season, 16 games, 12.5 sacks, 39 tackles

That doesn't look like $40M to me. In fact, that doesn't even look like $30M. Watt was the highest paid at his position on his last contract in the prime of his career. No reason to make him the highest paid post-prime.

Watt is on a veteran deal, which impacts the fines, according to a post on X by Adam Schefter.

Players on veteran deals, including the Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson and the Steelers’ T.J. Watt who are skipping mandatory minicamp, are subject to these fines:

Day 1: $17,462

Day 2: $34,925

Day 3: $52,381

Three days total: $104,768.

Watt enters the final year of his deal, so the pressure is on the Steelers to work out an extension.

[NorthCoast]

I agree

I know why he's doing it and it's not unusual in this situation. I still don't like it.
I started floating the idea of trading him last season.
I don't want to be the team forking over the huge contract because chances are the value will be gone.

His wife just had a baby. It's also possible he just wants to spend some time with the new fam member....

[WindyCitySteel]

last year of a deal players want that new contract. I understand why he is doing it but yall also know I wanted to trade him because if he gets another monster contract it will handcuff us and we haven’t really benefitted from these big money contracts.

For the record I’d trade him, too, but the deal won’t handcuff them the way the cap goes up every year and with such a cheap QB room.

Paying two WR like #1’s would have been a worse move, IMO.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

His wife just had a baby. It's also possible he just wants to spend some time with the new fam member....

That's okay. Like I said earlier, if this is done with communication with the team then I have no issue with it. It also seems more likely since he has held in once before and he seems like a guy who likes a drama-free image and a hold-in would cover that.

[feltdizz]

For the record I’d trade him, too, but the deal won’t handcuff them the way the cap goes up every year and with such a cheap QB room.

Paying two WR like #1’s would have been a worse move, IMO.

Nope.. if a $9 Mill per contract or $14 Mill per contract “handcuffs us” with a RB then a $40 Mill per contract definitely handcuffs us.. lol.

I’m using hyperbole but the way folks talked about contracts that were 1/3 of this handcuffing us was always comical.

[Northern_Blitz]

Yeah I remembered him being in Latrobe last time but couldn't recall whether he was at mini camp or not.

Regardless, it's probably him and Hendrickson each waiting for the shoe to drop for the other. And I guess Parsons too.

This is a good point. I was thinking only of actual camp.