Wildcard Losers

[WindyCitySteel]

Would love to find the next LeBeau on D.

And I liked the process for hiring Smith. We've generally done well by hiring failed coaches and putting them back in coordinator roles.

Saleh? I’d take Anarumo, the Bengals had no talent outside of Hendrickson. Who else is available?

[NorthCoast]

For you stat nerds, here's a table of passing correlation factors for WC game wins.

Highlighted green are positive factors contributing to WINS, highlighted red are negative (contributing to LOSS).
A perfect correlation has a factor = 1. Obviously, nothing is perfectly correlated to wins. No surprise, passing TDs come closest.

Notice INTs are second most important. Now you know why Tomlin is so anal about them. QB rating is a high positive factor. Again, not a surprise since it combines several of the listed stats.

One surprise; the very little effect of Yds passing on wins. Most people would interpret high passing yds = wins but that doesn't show up here. Another surprise; longest pass is a negative factor.... hmmmm.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2qFB4rF][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2qFB4rF]Screenshot 2025-01-16 061145[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[Northern_Blitz]

For you stat nerds, here's a table of passing correlation factors for WC game wins.

Highlighted green are positive factors contributing to WINS, highlighted red are negative (contributing to LOSS).
A perfect correlation has a factor = 1. Obviously, nothing is perfectly correlated to wins. No surprise, passing TDs come closest.

Notice INTs are second most important. Now you know why Tomlin is so anal about them. QB rating is a high positive factor. Again, not a surprise since it combines several of the listed stats.

One surprise; the very little effect of Yds passing on wins. Most people would interpret high passing yds = wins but that doesn't show up here. Another surprise; longest pass is a negative factor.... hmmmm.

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2qFB4rF][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2qFB4rF]Screenshot 2025-01-16 061145[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

My guess is passing yards gets muddled because when teams are ahead they run more. And when teams are behind they pass more.

And when teams are behind by a lot, the other team plays more prevent and passing yards are easier to come by. We've seen this in many of our playoff losses where we have a total **** first half, but the QB has good passing yards by the end because once you're down 2 or 3 scores, they don't mind you racking up stats as long as you take some time doing it.

Longest pass might be similar. But I would have assumed that it would be positively correlated.

Also...my guess is that any of the correlations below 0.3 are pretty meaningless.

[NorthCoast]

My guess is passing yards gets muddled because when teams are ahead they run more. And when teams are behind they pass more.

And when teams are behind by a lot, the other team plays more prevent and passing yards are easier to come by. We've seen this in many of our playoff losses where we have a total **** first half, but the QB has good passing yards by the end because once you're down 2 or 3 scores, they don't mind you racking up stats as long as you take some time doing it.

Longest pass might be similar. But I would have assumed that it would be positively correlated.

Also...my guess is that any of the correlations below 0.3 are pretty meaningless.

Good points NB. The other thing about longest pass, maybe 'moonballs' are not the way to win in the playoffs?

[Northern_Blitz]

Good points NB. The other thing about longest pass, maybe 'moonballs' are not the way to win in the playoffs?

I don't think it's that moonballs are bad.

I think it's that being all moonballs and checkdowns is bad.

You want to have a QB / system / OL pass pro that lets you make many different types of passes. Especially once you get to the playoffs against really good teams.

I think the problem with only moonballs and checkdowns was that it meant we got TDs or 3 and outs too often. So bad at getting 1st downs and having drives.

Hoping we extend Fields. I think he'll be a decent bridge while we try to rebuild.

If (when?) we extend Wilson, I think it's a signal that we're going for "just make the playoffs" again. The fan base won't like it, but I think we need some time to shore up both sides of the ball now. Which might mean some less competitive / uncompetitive seasons.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Was Ben elite or great?

And can you tell me about the difference in his individual performances in the years under Cowher vs. the first few under Tomlin?

What did Cowher do to "develop" Ben?

IMO, developing a QB is similar to teaching a student.

Some students, with the right teaching and guidance, can become great students and go on to huge accomplishments that they never would have achieved without the benefit of great teaching.

Some students will simply not be held back. They are so far above the norm that they will succeed regardless of the teacher.

Ben was the second student.

[Northern_Blitz]

IMO, developing a QB is similar to teaching a student.

Some students, with the right teaching and guidance, can become great students and go on to huge accomplishments that they never would have achieved without the benefit of great teaching.

Some students will simply not be held back. They are so far above the norm that they will succeed regardless of the teacher.

Ben was the second student.

My guess is that most of the great QBs are the second student. Even the above average ones.

I think it actually might be "all" of them were. Even Brady, who was passed over by everyone multiple times.

But I also think that no one knows how to scout QBs. Because I think the differentiator in QB play is processing speed, which I don't think can be taught.

I also kind of think that this is why teams draft more athletic QBs. It's much easier to scout athletic ability.

[crushedspirit]

Tom Brady might know a thing or two about QB development,

I could never have reached this area of growth that I needed to [in a different situation]. It was accelerated because of all the things I had in place.

“I see Bo Nix from Denver — he’s got Sean Payton there, a phenomenal coach! He’s going to get great coaching, and they’re going to have a great scheme! A lot of times, the first reads are going to be open because he has a great play-caller who knows how to design things!” Brady explained.

“Then, you go on the other side of it, and I see a lot of quarterbacks who don’t make it — and maybe they wouldn’t have made it anyway — but I’m just saying, there’s the potential that they could have [if they landed in the right situation].

Coaching affects a QB's development more than any other position.

[NorthCoast]

My guess is that most of the great QBs are the second student. Even the above average ones.

I think it actually might be "all" of them were. Even Brady, who was passed over by everyone multiple times.

But I also think that no one knows how to scout QBs. Because I think the differentiator in QB play is processing speed, which I don't think can be taught.

I also kind of think that this is why teams draft more athletic QBs. It's much easier to scout athletic ability.

I liken great QBs to great chess players. Just a snapshot of the board and they know exactly what they will do to win the match. Spatial awareness, and processing speed. Two very difficult traits to measure. The other critical trait is confidence in their decision-making and throwing accuracy.
Wilson, I think, has lost some of that confidence. He seems to panic pretty quickly when pressured and I'm not sure that is something that a player can get back.

[T.Ferguson]

Tom Brady might know a thing or two about QB development,





Coaching affects a QB's development more than any other position.

That last quote by Brady is exactly what I pointed out earlier on here. It is interesting to think about because most people just focus on a QB not panning out and blaming them instead of also looking at the team they were on and the environment they were in as being a contributing factor.

[Northern_Blitz]

That last quote by Brady is exactly what I pointed out earlier on here. It is interesting to think about because most people just focus on a QB not panning out and blaming them instead of also looking at the team they were on and the environment they were in as being a contributing factor.

I guess I just think that if it was development from some outside source (e.g. coaching, etc), it would be much more repeatable.

[SteelerMaine83]

Basically correct. Unless one team without a " Franchise QB " plays a clean game with NO turnovers and has a solid ground game, they are not winning four times out of five vs. a Franchsie Qb.

Thanks NB and JB. Your posts on this are spot on and refreshing, given the hyperbole here. Expecting us to routinely win against teams that are better than us with (legitimate) franchise QBs is not realistic, and acquiring a true franchise QB is a hard task. A Wild Card will beat the home team once in awhile, but not that often.

We are a second-tier playoff caliber team. Everybody looks great with a franchise QB.

[T.Ferguson]

I guess I just think that if it was development from some outside source (e.g. coaching, etc), it would be much more repeatable.

I think it's both talent and coaching. Herbert, for example, hasn't won a playoff game yet but in terms of passing the guy is most definitely elite, the offense he is in is not very good, that's at least partly coaching and scheme. When I was watching that Chargers playoff game it looked really outdated and nobody was ever open.

[WindyCitySteel]

Tom Brady might know a thing or two about QB development,





Coaching affects a QB's development more than any other position.

Nonsense. Just line up and beat your man.