Steelers Offseason Plan – Part I - Housekeeping

[hackjam]

Now that the annual playoff embarrassment is behind us, let’s take a look toward the future and put together a plan to fix what ails the Steelers.

CURRENT SITUATION:
The Steelers have roughly $52.3MM in gross cap space going into the offseason (based on OTC projection) with 39 players under contract (technially 40 but one is a void year for Mike Williams). At $840k min salary with 11 players to get to 51, that’s another $9.24MM.

CAP SPACE: $43.06MM

CUTTING DEAD WEIGHT
I see 3 obvious cuts right now.

• Preston Smith ($13.4MM saved)
• Larry Ogunjobi ($7MM saved)
• Cole Holcomb ($6MM saved)

With the $840k min for another 3 players, that nets us an additional $23.88MM in cap space.

Beyond that, they need to reserve approx. $3.2MM for the draft class based on current picks. That leaves us with…

CAP SPACE: $63.74MM

KEEPING OUR OWN - THE FREE AGENTS
The full list of FAs is as follows with age in paren:

• Russell Wilson ( 37 )
• Dan Moore Jr ( 27 )
• Cameron Sutton ( 30 )
• James Daniels ( 28 )
• Donte Jackson ( 30 )
• Van Jefferson ( 29 )
• Najee Harris ( 27 )
• Justin Fields ( 26 )
• Elandon Roberts ( 31 )
• Damontae Kazee ( 32 )
• Nate Herbig ( 27 )
• CJ Henderson ( 27 )
• MyCole Pruitt ( 33 )
• Scotty Miller ( 28 )
• Jaylen Warren ( 27 ) – RFA
• Ben Skowronek ( 28 )
• Max Scharping ( 29 )
• James Pierre ( 29 )
• Isaiahh Loudermilk ( 28 )
• Kyle Allen ( 29 )
• Ryan McCollum ( 27 ) – ERFA
• Jeremiah Moon ( 27 ) – ERFA
• Tyler Matakevich ( 33 )

Who do we re-sign?
Out of the gate, I’d make efforts toward re-signing 3 players, Justin Fields, Jaylen Warren, and Kyle Allen. I considered adding James Daniels to this list but at age 28, coming off of a major injury, I’m not sure if it helps much.

Re-signing Fields and Allen would at least stabilize the bottom part of the QB room. Allen is fine as a 3rd stringer. Fields is a low end QB1/high end QB2 who is young enough to serve as a bridge while we’re looking for the next QB. His market value is not going to be high and I’m not sure where you get a better QB2 this offseason.

Warren is a solid back and IMO, a no-brainer. And we have his rights.

SHOW ME THE MONEY
Ignoring the current Rookie Contracts, let’s say Fields falls somewhere between Tyrod Taylor ($6.8MM) and Gardner Minshew ($14MM). Would be nice to have some better comps but those are really the only two comps at that edge of QB1/QB2 currently under contract. Probably lean a little more toward Minshew given cap inflation, etc. Let’s settle at 2 yr, $11.5MM per.

Kyle Allen is basically a league min guy. With years of service, etc. let’s just call it $1.5MM.

Given that he’s an RFA, and probably a #2 at best let’s just assume they give him a right of first refusal tender ($3.185MM) and that his cap number ends up around there for 2025.

Call it $16.185MM to keep our own guys.

CAP SPACE: $47.56MM

Stay tuned for future parts:

Part II: Roster Rebuilding Strategies and the Trade Market
Part III: Free Agency
Part IV: The Draft

[Northern_Blitz]

Nice work Hackjam!

Always like the cap / roster construction stuff.

I like your cuts. In an ideal world, I think I wouldn't mind trying to get Smith back on the cheap. It's worth having 4 playable edges IMO. I suppose this also means you aren't going to be proposing trading Watt (which I can't see the team ever doing anyway).

I would also like to cut Larry O. I think that means we need to either draft a DL in the 1st or 2nd (my preference) or sign another UFA (probably similar to the Larry O signing...older, past prime). This is something I think we've had to do for multiple years. But we keep hanging on to him because we keep using picks (reasonably) to try to make the offense not terrible (failed so far).

Holcolmb is a no brainer. Hope that he gets healthy. But not worth the contract either way IMO.

I also badly want to cut Patterson. He's terrible. And Smith uses him as a crutch. The net savings here is $2MM. But the real savings is not having a returner who isn't good at returning. A RB who isn't good at running. And a WR who isn't good at wide-receiving. There isn't a more "efficient" cut we can make IMO.

I agree with trying to get Fields over Wilson (although I think the team will ultimately go the other way). Seems to me like it's close to a push between them. And Fields should be cheaper. My guess is that his market value will be higher than you have here because of the combination of cap inflation, bad QB class, and bad UFA class. Whichever QB we don't resign (if we resign any of them) will probably be the 2nd best QB in UFA. Maybe the best depending on what happens with Darnold. And if Darnold gets retained, then we've maybe got the two most attractive UFA QBs available. It's possible they both want a bite at the apple. Because with little supply, someone is likely to overpay.

Your deal puts him at the 20st highest AAV in the league. Minshew below $12.5MM, then the huge bump one spot above to starter money with Smith getting $25MM. My guess is that he's closer to (but still under) $20MM. Maybe something like $16.5M or $18MM. The strike zone here is so wide though, so who knows.

Questions I'm interested in for the next segments:

1. What are you doing at DL after cutting Larry O?
2. What do you think we should do with Pickens?

The idea of trading guys has some appeal. But I don't think Rooney would OK trading Watt of Minkah (Fitz is the clear trade bait on D IMO). Minkah already had a big restructure too, so we've kicked money down the road.

The real obvious trade bait IMO is Pickens. Last year of deal. Rookie deal so it's cheap. Lots of flashy talent, which may put his trade value higher than his actual value. But then we just have tumbleweeds in the WR room. And I don't know that Rooney will want it brought down to the studs. If a trade like that happens, I think it has to happen pre-draft. Get picks for this year so we can rebuild (in the many places that need it). Don't get caught in the trap SF did with Aiyuk.

Looking forward to the rest of your thoughts here.