Analytics question: Giants going for 2

[WindyCitySteel]

Peyton said this is a "new analytics thing", after which they all roundly criticized the Giants for, but if this is the correct interpretation I think it makes sense:

Scenario: Down by 14 in 2nd half, early enough to have multiple subsequent drives. Score TD, go for 2.

Risks: Need TD + 2 to tie

Rewards: Still only down one score if it fails, if it succeeds you have for two FG drives to tie, or TD/PAT to win.

I'm I seeing this the right way?

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Peyton said this is a "new analytics thing", after which they all roundly criticized the Giants for, but if this is the correct interpretation I think it makes sense:

Scenario: Down by 14 in 2nd half, early enough to have multiple subsequent drives. Score TD, go for 2.

Risks: Need TD + 2 to tie

Rewards: Still only down one score if it fails, if it succeeds you have for two FG drives to tie, or TD/PAT to win.

I'm I seeing this the right way?

Yes you are. Funny, I received a text with lots of question marks and swearing but I don't think it is that bad an idea, especially if you are a 2-5 team and need a shakeup. I don't like it, but don't hate it.

If I say to you "coach, can we score on a two-pointer at least once out of two tries?" If yes then you can go for it and if you hit it the first time then a TD and PAT is a winner. If you don't make it then you still aren't out of reach down 8.

Again, not a move I like but I understand for a team like the Giants who'd like to pull off something bold to build momentum.

[Eich]

I don't criticize the Giants for going for 2 in that situation. But the execution of the 2-point play was atrocious.

[NorthCoast]

Yes you are. Funny, I received a text with lots of question marks and swearing but I don't think it is that bad an idea, especially if you are a 2-5 team and need a shakeup. I don't like it, but don't hate it.

If I say to you "coach, can we score on a two-pointer at least once out of two tries?" If yes then you can go for it and if you hit it the first time then a TD and PAT is a winner. If you don't make it then you still aren't out of reach down 8.

Again, not a move I like but I understand for a team like the Giants who'd like to pull off something bold to build momentum.

The current probability to convert 2 points is about 46%. Of course, that's based on all 32 teams data. Some teams are far better at it than others

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

The current probability to convert 2 points is about 46%. Of course, that's based on all 32 teams data. Some teams are far better at it than others

I think that in order to have success over 46% you should run a better play than the one they did.

[Starlifter]

That's another analytic I just can't wrap my head around. Either way it worked out great for us.

speaking of analytics that don't make sense to me - deferring to the second half when you win the toss to start the game. I understand that it's productive to start the second half with the ball, particularly when you have the ball and score at the end of the first half. It's a chance to take control of the game.

But in my mind there is a total number of offensive drives in a game between the two teams. That number is either odd or even. If you take the ball first and there is an odd number of drives in total - it means you had one extra possession and the last drive in the game. With how scoring has become easier in the league, it seems to me having the extra possession to put points on the board might be more valuable than getting the ball to start the second half.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

That's another analytic I just can't wrap my head around. Either way it worked out great for us.

speaking of analytics that don't make sense to me - deferring to the second half when you win the toss to start the game. I understand that it's productive to start the second half with the ball, particularly when you have the ball and score at the end of the first half. It's a chance to take control of the game.

But in my mind there is a total number of offensive drives in a game between the two teams. That number is either odd or even. If you take the ball first and there is an odd number of drives in total - it means you had one extra possession and the last drive in the game. With how scoring has become easier in the league, it seems to me having the extra possession to put points on the board might be more valuable than getting the ball to start the second half.

Think about the two halves separately. In the first half, team A gets the ball first and either there is an odd or even number of possessions, and an odd number means that team A gets the extra possession. But then the second half starts and it isn't a continuation, it's separate from the first half. This time team B gets the first, and perhaps extra possession. If there was a continuation of the first half going into the second half then it could be an advantage getting the ball first, but because the half starts with team B getting the ball the same way team A got it in the first half, then there is no advantage other than the psychological.

[NorthCoast]

I think that in order to have success over 46% you should run a better play than the one they did.

LOL. Maybe they were trying to shock the defense by not blocking?

[Starlifter]

Think about the two halves separately. In the first half, team A gets the ball first and either there is an odd or even number of possessions, and an odd number means that team A gets the extra possession. But then the second half starts and it isn't a continuation, it's separate from the first half. This time team B gets the first, and perhaps extra possession. If there was a continuation of the first half going into the second half then it could be an advantage getting the ball first, but because the half starts with team B getting the ball the same way team A got it in the first half, then there is no advantage other than the psychological.

that helps. thanks!

[WindyCitySteel]

Think about the two halves separately. In the first half, team A gets the ball first and either there is an odd or even number of possessions, and an odd number means that team A gets the extra possession. But then the second half starts and it isn't a continuation, it's separate from the first half. This time team B gets the first, and perhaps extra possession. If there was a continuation of the first half going into the second half then it could be an advantage getting the ball first, but because the half starts with team B getting the ball the same way team A got it in the first half, then there is no advantage other than the psychological.

Teams desire the double-dip possessions around halftime more than scoring first.