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Kinda depressing reading the writeups on the division rivals.
Oh well, everyone starts 0-0
[url]https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/afc-north-over-unders-2024[/url]
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5)
Bryan: There are 53 players on a team, but all I really want to do is point and laugh at a quarterback competition which has come down to Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Running an offense orchestrated by Arthur Smith. Is that so wrong of me? Should I be spending more time talking up the talent on the roster – the stud defensive trio of T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Highsmith? The promise of George Pickens? A running back room that I think is a little better than the jokes made at its expense, despite the strange usage patterns of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren? Should I be taking a more holistic view of Pittsburgh’s quality, backed by a head coach who, through thick and thin, has managed to avoid having a losing season in his 17 years in charge?
No. No I should not. Arthur Smith’s starting offense has yet to score a point in preseason, and while he says that we shouldn’t read too much into that and ‘preseason could distort reality’, the problem is that we’ve seen Smith’s offense in the regular season, as well. He may not be showing his full hand quite yet, but his full hand in Atlanta involved routing the ball away from his most talented players to make room for Jonnu Smith deep routes and Tyler Allgeier clutch-time carries. It’s good to have changeups in your repertoire, but at this point, Smith’s offense is 90% changeups. That can work when you have a creative quarterback to run your offense through, but, well…
In 2023, Russell Wilson was third in the league, taking 3.06 seconds to get rid of the ball. Tops on that list? Justin Fields at 3.23 seconds. We have a pair of quarterbacks who will hold the ball forever, and invite bad outcomes to happen because of it. Wilson has always taken too many sacks, but he’s been able to overcome that over the years through his athleticism and escapability, as well as one of the best deep balls in the league. He was willing to extend plays and occasionally take bad sacks because he trusted in his ability to make miracles happen. He’s no longer that player anymore. Perhaps Mr. Unlimited will adapt his playstyle to short passes over the middle and getting the ball out on time, areas where the Smith offense would like to attack. I just have a hard time believing the leopard can change its spots here. But at least Wilson has a track record of success; Fields has a wide collection of highlight reel plays masking down after down ineffectiveness – a sack-and-interception prone inaccurate passer who you can not rely on on a down-to-down basis. Either of these guys being your starting quarterback means it’s time to upgrade – but these are the upgrades over Kenny Pickett!
Cale: If I were going to push back on this, I would argue that this is a pretty well-balanced team. Two B-plus running backs, a solid tight end, promising wide receivers in George Pickens and Roman Wilson, and an offensive line that has potential upside but is undeniably young and thus far inconsistent. The defense is in the midst of trying to balance a long-term retooling while remaining competitive for the later years of Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt. Are any of the non-Watt, non-Minkah Fitzpatrick pieces that exceptional? Not really, but the collective unit’s combined efforts will likely place this defense somewhere toward the median.
This is one of the most average teams in football. It’s what makes the Steelers such a toss-up. This really just comes down to the quarterback play. That’s what makes this such a problem. Russell Wilson just is not the guy anymore. His preseason efforts show it. I doubt he stays the starter for long, if he remains the starter at all. The other option isn’t much better, though. Justin Fields’ consistent improvements still leave him in the basement tier of quarterback play. Fields’ career-best adjusted sack rate is still north of 10 percent. He just cracked a positive CPOE for the first time in his career, and he is barely cracking completion percentages above 60 percent. His career-best -20.7% DVOA is still 30th in the league. I always thought that Arthur Smith would love a mobile quarterback to help this offense click. That bore out well in Fields’ preseason reps against the Bills, but it didn’t result in any trips to the end zone, either.
There is a definitive cap on what this offense can be with this quarterback and this offensive coordinator. The Steelers defense is mostly replacement-level players sans two elite talents. Tomlin’s magic has been worked on worse rosters, yes. There was always something clicking, though. A good run game. A surprise performance out of a veteran pick-up. A shocking game out of some milquetoast quarterback. If this team is going to shock the league, the method hasn’t revealed itself yet. There is too much randomness to be certain this team will over-perform.
Bryan: Under. All the way under. The streak ends here, Mike Tomlin. They might avoid double-digit losses, because I respect Tomlin’s ability to keep things from shattering far too much, but setting this line at 8.5 feels more like a meme based on Tomlin’s streak than an actual prediction for the 2024 Steelers.
Cale: I believe in the unstoppable force that is Mile Tomlin’s streak. But you’re right, Bryan, this streak has become a meme. It used to be one of the most impressive marks in the league for one of the game’s best active coaches. It’s still undeniably impressive, and it still shows the mark of a great coach. Now, though, it feels more like the football version of a Columbo episode. You know he’s going to figure this out. You just want to see what shocking twists and turns get made along the way.
I don’t think this is a responsible bet. I don’t think it makes sense in the context of every other bet on this list. The fact of the matter is, Mike Tomlin has finished with nine wins or better nine of the last 10 seasons. I don’t think that this is the worst roster Tomlin has had in that stretch. Plus, there is a chance a whole lot of offensive woes get rendered moot if Brandon Aiyuk ends up in black and yellow. Over, and it’s the least responsible one I’ve given thus far.
Oh well, everyone starts 0-0
[url]https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/afc-north-over-unders-2024[/url]
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5)
Bryan: There are 53 players on a team, but all I really want to do is point and laugh at a quarterback competition which has come down to Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Running an offense orchestrated by Arthur Smith. Is that so wrong of me? Should I be spending more time talking up the talent on the roster – the stud defensive trio of T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Highsmith? The promise of George Pickens? A running back room that I think is a little better than the jokes made at its expense, despite the strange usage patterns of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren? Should I be taking a more holistic view of Pittsburgh’s quality, backed by a head coach who, through thick and thin, has managed to avoid having a losing season in his 17 years in charge?
No. No I should not. Arthur Smith’s starting offense has yet to score a point in preseason, and while he says that we shouldn’t read too much into that and ‘preseason could distort reality’, the problem is that we’ve seen Smith’s offense in the regular season, as well. He may not be showing his full hand quite yet, but his full hand in Atlanta involved routing the ball away from his most talented players to make room for Jonnu Smith deep routes and Tyler Allgeier clutch-time carries. It’s good to have changeups in your repertoire, but at this point, Smith’s offense is 90% changeups. That can work when you have a creative quarterback to run your offense through, but, well…
In 2023, Russell Wilson was third in the league, taking 3.06 seconds to get rid of the ball. Tops on that list? Justin Fields at 3.23 seconds. We have a pair of quarterbacks who will hold the ball forever, and invite bad outcomes to happen because of it. Wilson has always taken too many sacks, but he’s been able to overcome that over the years through his athleticism and escapability, as well as one of the best deep balls in the league. He was willing to extend plays and occasionally take bad sacks because he trusted in his ability to make miracles happen. He’s no longer that player anymore. Perhaps Mr. Unlimited will adapt his playstyle to short passes over the middle and getting the ball out on time, areas where the Smith offense would like to attack. I just have a hard time believing the leopard can change its spots here. But at least Wilson has a track record of success; Fields has a wide collection of highlight reel plays masking down after down ineffectiveness – a sack-and-interception prone inaccurate passer who you can not rely on on a down-to-down basis. Either of these guys being your starting quarterback means it’s time to upgrade – but these are the upgrades over Kenny Pickett!
Cale: If I were going to push back on this, I would argue that this is a pretty well-balanced team. Two B-plus running backs, a solid tight end, promising wide receivers in George Pickens and Roman Wilson, and an offensive line that has potential upside but is undeniably young and thus far inconsistent. The defense is in the midst of trying to balance a long-term retooling while remaining competitive for the later years of Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt. Are any of the non-Watt, non-Minkah Fitzpatrick pieces that exceptional? Not really, but the collective unit’s combined efforts will likely place this defense somewhere toward the median.
This is one of the most average teams in football. It’s what makes the Steelers such a toss-up. This really just comes down to the quarterback play. That’s what makes this such a problem. Russell Wilson just is not the guy anymore. His preseason efforts show it. I doubt he stays the starter for long, if he remains the starter at all. The other option isn’t much better, though. Justin Fields’ consistent improvements still leave him in the basement tier of quarterback play. Fields’ career-best adjusted sack rate is still north of 10 percent. He just cracked a positive CPOE for the first time in his career, and he is barely cracking completion percentages above 60 percent. His career-best -20.7% DVOA is still 30th in the league. I always thought that Arthur Smith would love a mobile quarterback to help this offense click. That bore out well in Fields’ preseason reps against the Bills, but it didn’t result in any trips to the end zone, either.
There is a definitive cap on what this offense can be with this quarterback and this offensive coordinator. The Steelers defense is mostly replacement-level players sans two elite talents. Tomlin’s magic has been worked on worse rosters, yes. There was always something clicking, though. A good run game. A surprise performance out of a veteran pick-up. A shocking game out of some milquetoast quarterback. If this team is going to shock the league, the method hasn’t revealed itself yet. There is too much randomness to be certain this team will over-perform.
Bryan: Under. All the way under. The streak ends here, Mike Tomlin. They might avoid double-digit losses, because I respect Tomlin’s ability to keep things from shattering far too much, but setting this line at 8.5 feels more like a meme based on Tomlin’s streak than an actual prediction for the 2024 Steelers.
Cale: I believe in the unstoppable force that is Mile Tomlin’s streak. But you’re right, Bryan, this streak has become a meme. It used to be one of the most impressive marks in the league for one of the game’s best active coaches. It’s still undeniably impressive, and it still shows the mark of a great coach. Now, though, it feels more like the football version of a Columbo episode. You know he’s going to figure this out. You just want to see what shocking twists and turns get made along the way.
I don’t think this is a responsible bet. I don’t think it makes sense in the context of every other bet on this list. The fact of the matter is, Mike Tomlin has finished with nine wins or better nine of the last 10 seasons. I don’t think that this is the worst roster Tomlin has had in that stretch. Plus, there is a chance a whole lot of offensive woes get rendered moot if Brandon Aiyuk ends up in black and yellow. Over, and it’s the least responsible one I’ve given thus far.
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