Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

[brothervad]

Alot of talk has been going on whether or not to trade and what the Steelers should take as the minimum value.

It's really not a clear cut Yes or No decision....

The Steeler braintrust are probably discussing that very topic...

So I wanted to play a little game on what might be going on right now:

Assume you are part of the Steeler thinktank--you are dealing with the subject of whether or not to trade Ben.

Everyone around the table agrees that with Ben there is a 85% chance every year of making the postseason for the remainder of his contract

But then the question pops-up

1.) What is Ben's ability to rehabilitate/likelihood of not learning life's lesson--remember another boneheaded mistake at all by Ben will mean a year suspension and complete destrcution of any significant value.

2.) Given the Answer to 1...what is the minimum value that we would take if an offer was made for Ben in a trade

the Rooney's are basically trying to decide about Ben and are coming to a conclusion based on the above criteria (or something similar).

So here is the game...

Below is a list of % of Ben's ability to rehab/relapse within the next three years (let's assume if he makes it past 3 and remains clean--he will stay clean). What I want you to do is honestly state what you would take as an offer if a team came up with a trade offer. There is no right answer obviously, but it is likely something very similar is happening or has happened.

Steelers think tank analysis of Ben:
rehab/relapse (%)
20/80
40/60
50/50
60/40
80/20

Here is an example of how I would fill it out

20/80--best offer provided to me on draft day (1st round pick)
40/60--top 15 1st round pick
50/50--top 10 1st round pick
60/40--multiple 1's
80/20--wouldn't move him--worth the risk


Again, there is no right or wrong I just am interested to see how people view these things since it really isn't an exact science. And there are inherent risks going in either direction.

Brothervad

[steelblood]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

I'd say he is at 40% or less to do anything else punishable. Given that, I'd say 2 high #1s could be tempting. But, I probably wouldn't do it.

Really though, it is hard to know what Ben has said or done lately with Tomlin and the Rooneys. They probably have a lot more information than we do. That doesn't mean they will make the right decision. But, I hope they will.

[Shawn]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

Ben is thick headed. It took him nearly dying before he stayed away from motorcycles. And it will take nearly losing his freedom and career before he stays away from the silly chicks. Since, that has happened...I believe Ben learns his lesson and plays out a very productive NFL career.

[brothervad]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

I'd say he is at 40% or less to do anything else punishable. Given that, I'd say 2 high #1s could be tempting. But, I probably wouldn't do it.

Really though, it is hard to know what Ben has said or done lately with Tomlin and the Rooneys. They probably have a lot more information than we do. That doesn't mean they will make the right decision. But, I hope they will.

Steelblood,

I wanted to know at the different odds what you would do if you were the Rooneys wrt a trade. What would be the minimum you would take over those %.

Sorry, it may be to sensitive of a subject to do this type of analysis...

brothervad

[BURGH86STEEL]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

I will assume the organization probably gave Ben advice on more then one occasion. It is probably why they were/are so upset. They probably believe there is a 60/40 chance that Ben will relapse. I would also take into account the punishment that Ben takes on the field.
How many good years does Ben have left with his style of play?

I think 2 number one picks and another round pick will give the organization something to think about. I would probably pull the trigger if I were the organization.

[Notleadpoisoned]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

Here's my two reasons why the Steelers should trade Ben asap:

1) He's going to be going back to court to defend at least one, possibly even two civil lawsuits which will likely turn into more tabloid news and embarassment for the Steelers organization.

2) Ben is only another concussion or two away from having to retire anyhow so he might be out of the league completely by the time he reaches 30 years of age.

[JTP53609]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

that is a really good point on the concussions.....he is indeed one or two away from retiring, with the way he plays and how injury prone he is I think he plays no more than 5 years, so I would pull the trigger on this seattle deal that a "fan insider" has of 2 first rounders this year and a first next year.....I really like Mallet from arkansas, he will be like big ben, same size, better arm strenth and decent escapability....get him next year and jump on some nice talent this year....

[Oviedo]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

I will assume the organization probably gave Ben advice on more then one occasion. It is probably why they were/are so upset. They probably believe there is a 60/40 chance that Ben will relapse. I would also take into account the punishment that Ben takes on the field.
How many good years does Ben have left with his style of play?

I think 2 number one picks and another round pick will give the organization something to think about. I would probably pull the trigger if I were the organization.

Actually I would prefer a high #1 and then a bunch of #2 picks. Just look at the finanacial investment you have to make to sign a Round 1 pick in the top 10. It is huge and I think in 50% of those cases it doesn't pan out. You can cripple yourself with multiple Round 1 picks.

Players you can get in Round 2 are usually very close to the Rpound 1 picks and they are alot cheaper.

[SanAntonioSteelerFan]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

that is a really good point on the concussions.....he is indeed one or two away from retiring, with the way he plays and how injury prone he is I think he plays no more than 5 years, so I would pull the trigger on this seattle deal that a "fan insider" has of 2 first rounders this year and a first next year.....I really like Mallet from arkansas, he will be like big ben, same size, better arm strenth and decent escapability....get him next year and jump on some nice talent this year....

Umm, insn't that what started all the problems in the 1st place?

[Notleadpoisoned]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

that is a really good point on the concussions.....he is indeed one or two away from retiring, with the way he plays and how injury prone he is I think he plays no more than 5 years, so I would pull the trigger on this seattle deal that a "fan insider" has of 2 first rounders this year and a first next year.....I really like Mallet from arkansas, he will be like big ben, same size, better arm strenth and decent escapability....get him next year and jump on some nice talent this year....

Ben will probably be pissing his pants just like Cousin Eddie after he retires.

[url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmUx0L6k_0U"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmUx0L6k_0U[/url]

[JTP53609]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

that is a really good point on the concussions.....he is indeed one or two away from retiring, with the way he plays and how injury prone he is I think he plays no more than 5 years, so I would pull the trigger on this seattle deal that a "fan insider" has of 2 first rounders this year and a first next year.....I really like Mallet from arkansas, he will be like big ben, same size, better arm strenth and decent escapability....get him next year and jump on some nice talent this year....

Umm, insn't that what started all the problems in the 1st place?

yea but we are looking for good talent out of college....

[SteelAbility]

Re: Game: Too Trade or not Too trade

Alot of talk has been going on whether or not to trade and what the Steelers should take as the minimum value.

It's really not a clear cut Yes or No decision....

The Steeler braintrust are probably discussing that very topic...

So I wanted to play a little game on what might be going on right now:

Assume you are part of the Steeler thinktank--you are dealing with the subject of whether or not to trade Ben.

Everyone around the table agrees that with Ben there is a 85% chance every year of making the postseason for the remainder of his contract

But then the question pops-up

1.) What is Ben's ability to rehabilitate/likelihood of not learning life's lesson--remember another boneheaded mistake at all by Ben will mean a year suspension and complete destrcution of any significant value.

2.) Given the Answer to 1...what is the minimum value that we would take if an offer was made for Ben in a trade

the Rooney's are basically trying to decide about Ben and are coming to a conclusion based on the above criteria (or something similar).

So here is the game...

Below is a list of % of Ben's ability to rehab/relapse within the next three years (let's assume if he makes it past 3 and remains clean--he will stay clean). What I want you to do is honestly state what you would take as an offer if a team came up with a trade offer. There is no right answer obviously, but it is likely something very similar is happening or has happened.

Steelers think tank analysis of Ben:
rehab/relapse (%)
20/80
40/60
50/50
60/40
80/20

Here is an example of how I would fill it out

20/80--best offer provided to me on draft day (1st round pick)
40/60--top 15 1st round pick
50/50--top 10 1st round pick
60/40--multiple 1's
80/20--wouldn't move him--worth the risk


Again, there is no right or wrong I just am interested to see how people view these things since it really isn't an exact science. And there are inherent risks going in either direction.

Brothervad

Based on what I consider to be a pretty hard judgment come down, given that Ben wasn't arrested or charged, I'm going to say the analysis should point to the 80/20 range for rehab/relapse and I agree with your assessment - don't move him, it's worth the risk. Another factor pushing up the rehab/relapse ratio, I believe, is that Ben realizes that the supporting cast in Pittsburgh gives him a decent chance to win 4 or 5 total SBs. He knows it. I actually think that realization has made him cocky (before now) and clouded his judgment. If he has that realization, tempered by some humility, WATCH OUT. Ben WANTS to win.

Of course the rehab/relapse analysis is going on with other teams too. There is a huge problem with minds meeting. If Ben goes to a really poor team (like DET or STL) the odds of relapse go up significantly, in my opinion.

I agree with you various percentage assessments.