Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

[RuthlessBurgher]

If the draft fell like this, I would try to trade up a few picks for Haden, but I wanted to do a first round mock with no projected trades. I know the Post-Gazette reported that we are no longer interested in a safety in the first round, but I know enough not to believe a d@mn thing a team says about the draft in early April (no one can tell truth from smokescreen at this point in time). Thomas is young (a 20 year old redshirt sophomore) and the Tomlin era Steelers have a propensity for picking younger-than-average prospects (Timmons and Mendenhall were both only 20 when we drafted them as well). Plus, Thomas has the positional flexibility that makes our coaching staff drool. They want guards who can also play tackle or center. They want linebackers that can play both inside and outside. They want d-lineman that can rotate to various spots on our 3 man base line or our 4 man nickle or dime line. They want TE's who can also play FB. They want WR's who can also play QB. Thomas' potential to play virtually anywhere in the secondary fits this modus operandi.

St. Louis (1-15) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Detroit (2-14) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Tampa Bay (3-13) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Washington (4-12) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Kansas City (4-12) Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Seattle (5-11) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Cleveland (5-11) Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
Oakland (5-11) Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Buffalo (6-10) Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Jacksonville (7-9) Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Denver - from Chicago (7-9) Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Miami (7-9) Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
San Francisco (8- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Seattle - from Denver (8- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
New York Giants (8- Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Tennessee (8- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
San Francisco - from Carolina (8- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Pittsburgh (9-7) Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
Atlanta (9-7) Everson Griffen, DE, USC
Houston (9-7) C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Cincinnati (10-6) Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
New England (10-6) Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
Green Bay (11-5) Charles Brown, OT, USC
Philadelphia (11-5) Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Baltimore (9-7) Jared Odrick, DE/DT, Penn State
Arizona (10-6) Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Dallas (11-5) Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
San Diego (13-3) Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St.
New York Jets (9-7) Taylor Mays, S, USC
Minnesota (12-4) Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
Indianapolis (14-2) Brian Price, DT, UCLA
New Orleans (13-3) Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

I also wanted to do a second mock which looked at what might happen if things don't go as planned (and they rarely do). For example, if the Rams didn't take Bradford as everyone expects they will, how far would he fall? Washington would have jumped all over that a week ago, but not now in that the McNabb era is underway. K.C. and Seattle could both use him, but the Chiefs spent a ton in terms of contract money and draft pick compensation to get Cassell last year and Seattle just traded a surprising amount to get Charlie Whitehurst (and they still have Hasselbeck). So, for my alternate mock draft, I looked at who I had each team taking in the previous mock above, and forced them to take someone else instead, just to see how it worked out. It wasn't always easy (for example, I think Tampa will undoubtedly take McCoy or Suh, depending on which is available, but with Suh going to the Rams in my alternate mock, and the Bucs not allowed to take McCoy again according to my alternate mock rule, I had to give them what I felt was the best available player).

St. Louis (1-15) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Detroit (2-14) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Tampa Bay (3-13) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Washington (4-12) Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Kansas City (4-12) Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Seattle (5-11) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Cleveland (5-11) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Oakland (5-11) Taylor Mays, S, USC
Buffalo (6-10) Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Jacksonville (7-9) Tim Tebow, QB Florida
Denver - from Chicago (7-9) Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Miami (7-9) Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
San Francisco (8- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Seattle - from Denver (8- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
New York Giants (8- Brian Price, DT, UCLA
Tennessee (8- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
San Francisco - from Carolina (8- Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
Pittsburgh (9-7) Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Atlanta (9-7) Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Houston (9-7) Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
Cincinnati (10-6) Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
New England (10-6) Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Green Bay (11-5) Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
Philadelphia (11-5) Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Baltimore (9-7) Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Arizona (10-6) Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Dallas (11-5) Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
San Diego (13-3) Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
New York Jets (9-7) Jared Odrick, DE/DT, Penn State
Minnesota (12-4) Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
Indianapolis (14-2) Charles Brown, OT, USC
New Orleans (13-3) Everson Griffen, DE, USC

[NW Steeler]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Very creative, and I agree that just because the Steelers are saying they are not looking at S in the first round does not mean they won't draft one. But why do we take Thomas in one and Wilson in the other when they are both on your boards when we pick?

[hawaiiansteel]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Those are truly two well-thought out mock drafts that merit praise and compliments!

but seriously, good stuff RB!

[RuthlessBurgher]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Very creative, and I agree that just because the Steelers are saying they are not looking at S in the first round does not mean they won't draft one. But why do we take Thomas in one and Wilson in the other when they are both on your boards when we pick?

I like Thomas better than Wilson, but the rule I gave myself for the alternate mock was that no team could draft the same player the second time...have to switch it up (although, now that I look at it, Haden ended up a Niner in both drafts, but he was taken at #13 in one and at #17 in the other, so at least no player was taken in the same spot in both drafts).

[papillon]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Those are excellent mock drafts. :P

Pappy

[StarSpangledSteeler]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

If the draft fell like this, I would try to trade up a few picks for Haden, but I wanted to do a first round mock with no projected trades. I know the Post-Gazette reported that we are no longer interested in a safety in the first round, but I know enough not to believe a d@mn thing a team says about the draft in early April (no one can tell truth from smokescreen at this point in time). Thomas is young (a 20 year old redshirt sophomore) and the Tomlin era Steelers have a propensity for picking younger-than-average prospects (Timmons and Mendenhall were both only 20 when we drafted them as well). Plus, Thomas has the positional flexibility that makes our coaching staff drool. They want guards who can also play tackle or center. They want linebackers that can play both inside and outside. They want d-lineman that can rotate to various spots on our 3 man base line or our 4 man nickle or dime line. They want TE's who can also play FB. They want WR's who can also play QB. Thomas' potential to play virtually anywhere in the secondary fits this modus operandi.

St. Louis (1-15) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Detroit (2-14) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Tampa Bay (3-13) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Washington (4-12) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Kansas City (4-12) Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Seattle (5-11) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Cleveland (5-11) Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
Oakland (5-11) Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Buffalo (6-10) Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Jacksonville (7-9) Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Denver - from Chicago (7-9) Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Miami (7-9) Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
San Francisco (8- Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Seattle - from Denver (8- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
New York Giants (8- Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Tennessee (8- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
San Francisco - from Carolina (8- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Pittsburgh (9-7) Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
Atlanta (9-7) Everson Griffen, DE, USC
Houston (9-7) C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Cincinnati (10-6) Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
New England (10-6) Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
Green Bay (11-5) Charles Brown, OT, USC
Philadelphia (11-5) Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Baltimore (9-7) Jared Odrick, DE/DT, Penn State
Arizona (10-6) Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Dallas (11-5) Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
San Diego (13-3) Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St.
New York Jets (9-7) Taylor Mays, S, USC
Minnesota (12-4) Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers
Indianapolis (14-2) Brian Price, DT, UCLA
New Orleans (13-3) Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

I also wanted to do a second mock which looked at what might happen if things don't go as planned (and they rarely do). For example, if the Rams didn't take Bradford as everyone expects they will, how far would he fall? Washington would have jumped all over that a week ago, but not now in that the McNabb era is underway. K.C. and Seattle could both use him, but the Chiefs spent a ton in terms of contract money and draft pick compensation to get Cassell last year and Seattle just traded a surprising amount to get Charlie Whitehurst (and they still have Hasselbeck). So, for my alternate mock draft, I looked at who I had each team taking in the previous mock above, and forced them to take someone else instead, just to see how it worked out. It wasn't always easy (for example, I think Tampa will undoubtedly take McCoy or Suh, depending on which is available, but with Suh going to the Rams in my alternate mock, and the Bucs not allowed to take McCoy again according to my alternate mock rule, I had to give them what I felt was the best available player).

St. Louis (1-15) Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Detroit (2-14) Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
Tampa Bay (3-13) Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Washington (4-12) Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Kansas City (4-12) Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Seattle (5-11) Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Cleveland (5-11) Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Oakland (5-11) Taylor Mays, S, USC
Buffalo (6-10) Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Jacksonville (7-9) Tim Tebow, QB Florida
Denver - from Chicago (7-9) Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Miami (7-9) Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
San Francisco (8- Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Seattle - from Denver (8- C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
New York Giants (8- Brian Price, DT, UCLA
Tennessee (8- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
San Francisco - from Carolina (8- Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
Pittsburgh (9-7) Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Atlanta (9-7) Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Houston (9-7) Earl Thomas, FS, Texas
Cincinnati (10-6) Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
New England (10-6) Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Green Bay (11-5) Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan
Philadelphia (11-5) Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Baltimore (9-7) Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Arizona (10-6) Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Dallas (11-5) Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
San Diego (13-3) Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama
New York Jets (9-7) Jared Odrick, DE/DT, Penn State
Minnesota (12-4) Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
Indianapolis (14-2) Charles Brown, OT, USC
New Orleans (13-3) Everson Griffen, DE, USC

There are usually one or two surprises in the first half of the first round, meaning teams over-draft a prospect that we all expected to go later. I don't see that as much this year. There just aren't a lot of 'over-athletic' wild cards like years past. Our whole draft might actually hinge on two teams. Oakland and Seattle. I'm really counting on Oakland to do something stupid, but the more i think about it, the more I worry they might take a safer pick (based on the last few years' blunders). I would love for them to take Campbell but remember... Seattle must draft a left tackle this year. If Okung and Bulaga are gone (as expected by many) I doubt Seattle will go Trent Williams at 6. They might try to wait until 14. If he's gone by then, do they draft Campbell or trade down to go with Charles Brown (who Pete Carroll is very familiar with). I also think based on Chris Johnson's production, Spiller will go higher than 20. Both of those factors should push a prime prospect our way.

I expect Wilson or Thomas will be our pick. I know there's a lot of talk about Pouncey and Iupati, but I honestly think that's a smokescreen. Look at the overall nfl draft history. How many centers go at 1.18? How many guards go at 1.18? That's just so high for an interior lineman.

[hawaiiansteel]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Very creative, and I agree that just because the Steelers are saying they are not looking at S in the first round does not mean they won't draft one. But why do we take Thomas in one and Wilson in the other when they are both on your boards when we pick?

I like Thomas better than Wilson, but the rule I gave myself for the alternate mock was that no team could draft the same player the second time...have to switch it up (although, now that I look at it, Haden ended up a Niner in both drafts, but he was taken at #13 in one and at #17 in the other, so at least no player was taken in the same spot in both drafts).

CB is our biggest weakness, i would be more than happy with either Thomas or Wilson.

[pfelix73]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Good job- we'll see how many you get right in the not to distant future.

[RuthlessBurgher]

Re: Ruthless' 1st Round Mock (no trades) and Alternate 1st Round

Good job- we'll see how many you get right in the not to distant future.

Yeah, the draft is only 2 weeks and 2 days away! Woo hoo!

I'm already re-thinking parts of this mock, though. I'm thinking that in Seattle's case at #14, if they didn't take an OT at #6, Pete Carroll may opt for his boy Charles Brown over Rutger's Anthony Davis. Davis may be more physically gifted, but with questions about work ethic and maturity, he may prefer a guy he knows well since he coached him on the college level just last season.

I'm sure I'll do at least one more mock before the actual festivities start (and I think I'll do at least a full first and second round next time...maybe even 3 rounds if I feel up to it).