WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

[WoodleyofTroy]

Top 5 at #18:

1) Joe Haden, Cornerback, Florida.
2) Rolando McClain, Inside Linebacker, Alabama.
3) Earl Thomas, Defensive back, Texas.
4) Trent Williams, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma.
5) C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Clemson.

Trade back:
1) Mike Iupati, Guard, Idaho.
2) Brandon Graham, Outside Linebacker, Michigan.
3) Maurkice Pouncey, Center/Guard, Florida.


-From everything that I've been reading, I get the feeling that the Steelers will be trading up in the 2nd round, ala 2004 for Colclough. Steelers are making moves to win now (the return of Randle El and Foote, retaining Hampton, Clark, and Reed). ..impact ready players (Special teams, quality backups) oppose to quantity here. Trading up in the first round is also very possible. I just don't see the Steelers sitting idle in this draft. Gonna be lots of maneuvering (due to not making the playoffs, combined with Ben's offseason distraction).

-What about drafting Colt McCoy and reuniting him with Sweed? Kills two birds with one stone. A backup QB. And a talented WR with his head back in the game. Just a thought.

-Donovan Warren will be the steal of the draft if he goes around the middle of the 3rd and later.

Current Mock
Trades:
Washington trades #4 to Cleveland for #7, #87, #92.
San Francisco trades #13 to New England for #22, #53.

1. St. Louis – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
2. Detroit – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma
3. Tampa Bay – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
4. Cleveland f/was. – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
5. Kansas City – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
6. Seattle – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
7. Washington f/clev. – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
8. Oakland – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
9. Buffalo – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
10. Jacksonville – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
11. Denver – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
12. Miami – Jason Pierre Paul, DE, USF
13. New England f/SF. – Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
14. Seattle – Taylor Mays, S, USC
15. New York Giants – Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
16. Tennessee – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
17. San Francisco – CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
18. Pittsburgh – Earl Thomas, DB, Texas
19. Atlanta – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
20. Houston – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
21. Cincinnati – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
22. San Francisco f/NE. – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
23. Green Bay – Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
24. Philadelphia – Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
25. Baltimore – Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU
26. Arizona – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
27. Dallas – Charles Brown, OT, USC
28. San Diego – Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
29. New York Jets – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
30. Minnesota – Maurkice Pouncey, OC/G, Florida
31. Indianapolis – Rodger Staffold, OL, Indiana
32. New Orleans – Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

[hawaiiansteel]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

a very well-thought out post -


i would be delighted to hear the Steelers call out Earl Thomas' name on draft day.

[Shawn]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

I think every Steeler fan except czar will be jumping up and down if we land Thomas.

[hawaiiansteel]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

I think every Steeler fan except czar will be jumping up and down if we land Thomas.

hey Shawn,

you were one of the very first to jump on the Earl Thomas bandwagon, how come you replaced him in your mock with Odrick? don't think Thomas lasts until #18 or did the re-signing of Ryan Clark change your mind?

[WoodleyofTroy]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

I think every Steeler fan except czar will be jumping up and down if we land Thomas.

Does he still want Taylor Mays?


I figured he gave up on the Steelers after they passed on Maualuga last year.

[ANPSTEEL]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

Top 5 at #18:

1) Joe Haden, Cornerback, Florida.
2) Rolando McClain, Inside Linebacker, Alabama.
3) Earl Thomas, Defensive back, Texas.
4) Trent Williams, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma.
5) C.J. Spiller, Running Back, Clemson.

Trade back:
1) Mike Iupati, Guard, Idaho.
2) Brandon Graham, Outside Linebacker, Michigan.
3) Maurkice Pouncey, Center/Guard, Florida.


-From everything that I've been reading, I get the feeling that the Steelers will be trading up in the 2nd round, ala 2004 for Colclough. Steelers are making moves to win now (the return of Randle El and Foote, retaining Hampton, Clark, and Reed). ..impact ready players (Special teams, quality backups) oppose to quantity here. Trading up in the first round is also very possible. I just don't see the Steelers sitting idle in this draft. Gonna be lots of maneuvering (due to not making the playoffs, combined with Ben's offseason distraction).

-What about drafting Colt McCoy and reuniting him with Sweed? Kills two birds with one stone. A backup QB. And a talented WR with his head back in the game. Just a thought.

-Donovan Warren will be the steal of the draft if he goes around the middle of the 3rd and later.

Current Mock
Trades:
Washington trades #4 to Cleveland for #7, #87, #92.
San Francisco trades #13 to New England for #22, #53.

1. St. Louis – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
2. Detroit – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma
3. Tampa Bay – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
4. Cleveland f/was. – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
5. Kansas City – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
6. Seattle – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
7. Washington f/clev. – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
8. Oakland – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
9. Buffalo – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
10. Jacksonville – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
11. Denver – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
12. Miami – Jason Pierre Paul, DE, USF
13. New England f/SF. – Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
14. Seattle – Taylor Mays, S, USC
15. New York Giants – Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
16. Tennessee – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
17. San Francisco – CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
18. Pittsburgh – Earl Thomas, DB, Texas
19. Atlanta – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
20. Houston – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
21. Cincinnati – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
22. San Francisco f/NE. – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
23. Green Bay – Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
24. Philadelphia – Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
25. Baltimore – Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU
26. Arizona – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
27. Dallas – Charles Brown, OT, USC
28. San Diego – Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
29. New York Jets – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
30. Minnesota – Maurkice Pouncey, OC/G, Florida
31. Indianapolis – Rodger Staffold, OL, Indiana
32. New Orleans – Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

I like what you have done here-

but mostly- I'm in agreement- I believe they are intending to move up in the 2nd, as well.

I think there is a lot of talent remaining at the top of Rd 2. In particular- I think they make that move if they go DL or OL in RD 1, because they be targeting a CB in 2.

[Chadman]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

A few other thoughts to keep in mind-

Conference- ALL 1st round picks by the Steelers since Kevin Colbert was signed have come from Division 1-A. 3 1st round picks have been from BIG-10 teams, 2 ACC, 2 BIG-12, 1 MAC, 1 PAC-10 & 1 SEC.

Traded Picks- The Steelers have TRADED UP twice in the 1st round under Colbert, TRADED DOWN once. 70% of his drafts- the Steelers have stood pat.

Positions- The Steelers have drafted 2 DL, 2 WR, 1 LB, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 QB, 1 Safety & 1 OL in the 1st round under Colbert. That is 3 Non-Skill players to 7 Skill players. And 4 DEFENSIVE players to 6 OFFENSIVE players. And 0 CB's.

Success- All 1st round picks (giving Hood a pass so far) have been successful in transitioning to starting calibre players, and most exceeding & becoming integral players for the Steelres. In other words- no busts.

Drafting For Need- A look back shows that the Steelers do, in fact, draft for need in the 1st round. In 2000, after the failure of Troy Edwards, the Steelers drafted Plaxico Burress. In 2001, Casey Hampton was drafted after the lack of success of Kimo Von Oelhoffen at NT. 2002 Kendall Simmons was drafted & started at RG. 2003- Troy Polamalu was drafted after Lee Flowers showed he was not up to the SS job. 2004, possibly the one year where the Steelers got the BPA first, position 2nd, Ben Roethlisberger was drafted to eventually succeed Tommy Maddox. 2005 saw Heath Miller brought in to replace the aging, declining Mark Breuner. 2006 saw Santonio Holmes come in to replace the departed Plaxico Burress. 2007 saw Lawrence Timmons brought in to compete for the OLB job that James Harrison won. After Harrison exceeded expectations, Timmons was moved to ILB. 2008 saw Mendenhall brought in to back-up/replace the broken Willie Parker. 2009 was the 2nd time the Steelers drafted without 'need' first & foremost by selecting future starter Ziggy Hood.

[Chadman]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

So, what does that mean for #18?

The possibilities for #18 as far as this board & selected draft sites have indicated are-

CB Joe Haden- Florida- SEC- Trade Up Required
FS Earl Thomas- Texas- BIG 12
OG Mike Iupati- Idaho- WAC
DE Jared Odrick- Penn State- BIG 10
NT Dan Williams- Tennessee- SEC
OT Trent Williams- Oklahoma- BIG 12
RB CJ Spiller- Clemson- ACC
ILB Rolando McLain- Alabama- SEC- Trade Up Required
ILB Sean Weatherspoon- Missouri- BIG 12
OLB Brandon Graham- Michigan- BIG 10
FS Taylor Mays- USC- PAC 10
CB Kyle Wilson- Boise State- WAC

Of this group- 2 players are from the Steelers preferred BIG 10 program- DE Jared Odrick & OLB Brandon Graham.

3 players are from the BIG 12- FS Earl Thomas, OT Trent Williams & ILB Sean Weatherspoon.

1 players is from the ACC- CJ Spiller.

That rounds out the favoured divisions. The WAC has 2 prospects in Mike Iupati & Kyle Wilson- but the Steelers have not drafted a WAC player in Round 1 under Colbert. 3 prospects are from the SEC- McLain, Haden & Dan Williams- a division the Steelers have chosen once from. Interestingly, if the Steelers want 2 of these guys, they will likely need to trade up- something they rarely do. Lastly, there is 1 PAC 10 player- Taylor Mays. The last PAC 10 player selected in Round 1 by the Steelers was, funnily enough, Safety Troy Polamalu, who played for USC as well.

[Chadman]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

If the Steelers draft for NEED, the following players will likely get scored higher- IUPATI, DAN WILLIAMS, CJ SPILLER, JOE HADEN & KYLE WILSON. FS EARL THOMAS might get graded higher if the Steelers see him as a possible CB.

If the Steelers look for FUTURE STARTERS, the other players get a higher grading.

LB is a wildcard as the decline of James Farrior & the age of James Harrison could make the position a higher priority. Same could be said for DE & FS.

OT appears to be a position the Steelers are set at for the next few years.

[Chadman]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

Given these stats to work with, Chadman believes that the following players ARE MORE LIKELY to be the Steelers targets in Round 1-

RB- CJ SPILLER- Fits the Division catagory by playing in the ACC, is also a position of need. Also, plays a skill position, which gets a higher weighting under Colbert in Round 1.

LB- SEAN WEATHERSPOON- From the same school as #1 pick Ziggy Hood last year. With Farrior aging, fits the position of need, Conference is a good indicator, being the BIG 12.

LB- BRANDON GRAHAM- Same situation as Weatherspoon- could be a replacement for the aging Harrison. BIG 10 sits well.

DE- JARED ODRICK- From the Steelers favoured BIG 10, and with Aaron Smith & Brett Keisel over 30, this is a position of need. Non-Skill player though, might be against him after selecting DE last season.

FS/CB- EARL THOMAS- Another BIG 12 player, fits the position of need clause IF the Steelers decide he can play CB. Signing Ryan Clark goes against him if they see him as a FS.

OG- MIKE IUPATI- From a conference they have not picked a 1st Rounder from, and being a non-skill player, might go against him. Does play a position of need however.

[Oviedo]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

Given these stats to work with, Chadman believes that the following players ARE MORE LIKELY to be the Steelers targets in Round 1-

RB- CJ SPILLER- Fits the Division catagory by playing in the ACC, is also a position of need. Also, plays a skill position, which gets a higher weighting under Colbert in Round 1.

LB- SEAN WEATHERSPOON- From the same school as #1 pick Ziggy Hood last year. With Farrior aging, fits the position of need, Conference is a good indicator, being the BIG 12.

LB- BRANDON GRAHAM- Same situation as Weatherspoon- could be a replacement for the aging Harrison. BIG 10 sits well.

DE- JARED ODRICK- From the Steelers favoured BIG 10, and with Aaron Smith & Brett Keisel over 30, this is a position of need. Non-Skill player though, might be against him after selecting DE last season.

FS/CB- EARL THOMAS- Another BIG 12 player, fits the position of need clause IF the Steelers decide he can play CB. Signing Ryan Clark goes against him if they see him as a FS.

OG- MIKE IUPATI- From a conference they have not picked a 1st Rounder from, and being a non-skill player, might go against him. Does play a position of need however.

Great analysis and exactly the things I have looked at. I think your top 3 are right in the "sweet spot." One additional factor that I also would weigh in is the relative depth of a specific position in a draft. If a draft is deep at a specific position, I do not think Colbert goes after that position early. This draft is very deep at Safety and CB so IMO that drops down the possibility of Thomas quite a bit.

[steeler_george]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

Given these stats to work with, Chadman believes that the following players ARE MORE LIKELY to be the Steelers targets in Round 1-

RB- CJ SPILLER- Fits the Division catagory by playing in the ACC, is also a position of need. Also, plays a skill position, which gets a higher weighting under Colbert in Round 1.

LB- SEAN WEATHERSPOON- From the same school as #1 pick Ziggy Hood last year. With Farrior aging, fits the position of need, Conference is a good indicator, being the BIG 12.

LB- BRANDON GRAHAM- Same situation as Weatherspoon- could be a replacement for the aging Harrison. BIG 10 sits well.

DE- JARED ODRICK- From the Steelers favoured BIG 10, and with Aaron Smith & Brett Keisel over 30, this is a position of need. Non-Skill player though, might be against him after selecting DE last season.

FS/CB- EARL THOMAS- Another BIG 12 player, fits the position of need clause IF the Steelers decide he can play CB. Signing Ryan Clark goes against him if they see him as a FS.

OG- MIKE IUPATI- From a conference they have not picked a 1st Rounder from, and being a non-skill player, might go against him. Does play a position of need however.

Great analysis and exactly the things I have looked at. I think your top 3 are right in the "sweet spot." One additional factor that I also would weigh in is the relative depth of a specific position in a draft. If a draft is deep at a specific position, I do not think Colbert goes after that position early. This draft is very deep at Safety and CB so IMO that drops down the possibility of Thomas quite a bit.

I agree. As bad as we need another DB play maker, I think we will get one in round 2, where there is still stand out DBs to be selected. However, that can not be said for OL.

It all depends on who drops and who goes before we select. There is a possibility that all 6 of the players listed and including pauncy, k. wilson being there at 18. If so do we stay or drop back and hopefully trade back up in early 2nd.

Who might be available in round 2 for us to trade up or around our selection?

[Oviedo]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

Given these stats to work with, Chadman believes that the following players ARE MORE LIKELY to be the Steelers targets in Round 1-

RB- CJ SPILLER- Fits the Division catagory by playing in the ACC, is also a position of need. Also, plays a skill position, which gets a higher weighting under Colbert in Round 1.

LB- SEAN WEATHERSPOON- From the same school as #1 pick Ziggy Hood last year. With Farrior aging, fits the position of need, Conference is a good indicator, being the BIG 12.

LB- BRANDON GRAHAM- Same situation as Weatherspoon- could be a replacement for the aging Harrison. BIG 10 sits well.

DE- JARED ODRICK- From the Steelers favoured BIG 10, and with Aaron Smith & Brett Keisel over 30, this is a position of need. Non-Skill player though, might be against him after selecting DE last season.

FS/CB- EARL THOMAS- Another BIG 12 player, fits the position of need clause IF the Steelers decide he can play CB. Signing Ryan Clark goes against him if they see him as a FS.

OG- MIKE IUPATI- From a conference they have not picked a 1st Rounder from, and being a non-skill player, might go against him. Does play a position of need however.

Great analysis and exactly the things I have looked at. I think your top 3 are right in the "sweet spot." One additional factor that I also would weigh in is the relative depth of a specific position in a draft. If a draft is deep at a specific position, I do not think Colbert goes after that position early. This draft is very deep at Safety and CB so IMO that drops down the possibility of Thomas quite a bit.

I agree. As bad as we need another DB play maker, I think we will get one in round 2, where there is still stand out DBs to be selected. However, that can not be said for OL.

It all depends on who drops and who goes before we select. There is a possibility that all 6 of the players listed and including pauncy, k. wilson being there at 18. If so do we stay or drop back and hopefully trade back up in early 2nd.

Who might be available in round 2 for us to trade up or around our selection?

How is "playmaker" defined. Joe Burnett had 16 INTs in college and he dropped one as a Pro and many feel he has no future in our secondary and another rookie will be the savior.

"Playmaker" is a nice sounding word but as I have said before it was pretty easy for haden and Thomas to be "playmakers" when the teams they were on ran up double digit leads early in games and forced the opponents to throw and play catch up. I think it is easier to be a "playmaker" when you and everyone in the stadium knows the next play is a pass play.

[WoodleyofTroy]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

Good work as always Chadman.


Side note: I think Brandon Graham would be my #1 if not for Harrison and Woodley. But I just can't get past the fact that he would have less playing time than Ziggy Hood did his rookie season. Which isn't too big of a problem, I don't mind rookies sitting, but OLB is our biggest strength as far as starters go. People keep mentioning Harrison's age, but I see him around for awhile.

I'd still take Graham, just not over the players ranked above him.

[WoodleyofTroy]

Re: WoodleyofTroy's random draft thoughts.

If we were picking in the 30's like we should be, we'd all be hoping for Iupati or Pouncey to fall to us. Which would be very unlikely.

Just something to think about in case we do have to "settle".