Contextual look at Pickett's deep ball accuracy

[WindyCitySteel]

This one is going to make some folks unhappy...

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/03/kenny-pickett-was-nfls-2nd-most-accuracy-deep-passer-in-2023-according-to-deep-ball-project/

[crushedspirit]

Curious how different studies can show vastly different numbers. ADJ% according to PFF on 20+ is 42.6% for Pickett on 47 attempts.

[flippy]

This one is going to make some folks unhappy...

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/03/ke...-ball-project/

Maybe I’m too much of a homer, but I think he’s a lot better than these stats show.

So many times on bad plays you can see he’s just not yet on the same page as a his WR or he had seen a certain coverage or wasn’t expecting a certain game speed.

But in general you don’t see the same mistakes get repeated.

I think everyone got caught up in KP being NFL ready from day 1. And we didn’t have the patience to let him learn.

We’ve lived thru this with him at Pitt. No one thought he was great in college until he was.

Same thing playing out. 99% of KP is mental and work ethic. He’s on the right track.

[Oviedo]

Maybe I’m too much of a homer, but I think he’s a lot better than these stats show.

So many times on bad plays you can see he’s just not yet on the same page as a his WR or he had seen a certain coverage or wasn’t expecting a certain game speed.

But in general you don’t see the same mistakes get repeated.

I think everyone got caught up in KP being NFL ready from day 1. And we didn’t have the patience to let him learn.

We’ve lived thru this with him at Pitt. No one thought he was great in college until he was.

Same thing playing out. 99% of KP is mental and work ethic. He’s on the right track.

This!!!

KP still has a long way to go but towrds the end of last season he showed that he has a foundation to build upon

[whisper]

Maybe I’m too much of a homer, but I think he’s a lot better than these stats show.

So many times on bad plays you can see he’s just not yet on the same page as a his WR or he had seen a certain coverage or wasn’t expecting a certain game speed.

But in general you don’t see the same mistakes get repeated.

I think everyone got caught up in KP being NFL ready from day 1. And we didn’t have the patience to let him learn.

We’ve lived thru this with him at Pitt. No one thought he was great in college until he was.

Same thing playing out. 99% of KP is mental and work ethic. He’s on the right track.

Well, you are notorious for being overly optimistic - on the same track here. I saw lots of throws that were "off" downfield. This claims a lot were "on" with the WR dropping them. Of course, throws downfield were limited in the play calling. We will see if, and by how much, that improves. Can Cool Shades stop living in his fears?

[Steel Maniac]

We have one side who's says that the second half of the season , KP improved significantly.
We have another side who says that the lighter schedule is why KP supposedly improved.

That will be settled this coming season.

[feltdizz]

Maybe I’m too much of a homer, but I think he’s a lot better than these stats show.

So many times on bad plays you can see he’s just not yet on the same page as a his WR or he had seen a certain coverage or wasn’t expecting a certain game speed.

But in general you don’t see the same mistakes get repeated.

I think everyone got caught up in KP being NFL ready from day 1. And we didn’t have the patience to let him learn.

We’ve lived thru this with him at Pitt. No one thought he was great in college until he was.

Same thing playing out. 99% of KP is mental and work ethic. He’s on the right track.

In think if Claypool hauls in that first deep pass his first impression is totally different.

You had people claiming his arm and small hands caused that INT.

and I think if you have an agenda you will use the “most NFL ready” quote out of context on purpose. The full quote was “the nmost NFL ready QB in this draft”

of course Purdy came out of nowhere but among the QB’s being mentioned during the draft they were right.

[feltdizz]

We have one side who's says that the second half of the season , KP improved significantly.
We have another side who says that the lighter schedule is why KP supposedly improved.

That will be settled this coming season.

That was already settled. We had the 5th hardest schedule last year. People don’t want to admit that our “softer schedule”
wasn’t soft at all. It just wasn’t the gauntlet we faced the first half of the season.

[Oviedo]

That was already settled. We had the 5th hardest schedule last year. People don’t want to admit that our “softer schedule”
wasn’t soft at all. It just wasn’t the gauntlet we faced the first half of the season.

Why rely on facts when you can misrepresent them to push you negative naratives

[whisper]

We have one side who's says that the second half of the season , KP improved significantly.
We have another side who says that the lighter schedule is why KP supposedly improved.

That will be settled this coming season.

It really can't be argued that the schedule for sure lightened up in quality of opponent down the stretch. I mean, it just can't be argued.

@Cincinnati
New England
@Cleveland
New York Jets
@Buffalo
Tampa Bay
@Miami
@Philadelphia
vsNew Orleans
vsCincinnati
@Indianapolis
@Atlanta
vs Baltimore
@Carolina
vs Las Vegas
@Baltimore
vs Cleveland

I mean, NYJ, Fins, Bills, Eagles vs Raiders, Saints, Falcons, Panthers....ummmm, well........let's get real here.

[feltdizz]

Why rely on facts when you can misrepresent them to push you negative naratives

yep.. and this year we have what looks on paper to be a favorable schedule. If we win a bunch of games best believe they will use it as an excuse.

[Northern_Blitz]

Curious how different studies can show vastly different numbers. ADJ% according to PFF on 20+ is 42.6% for Pickett on 47 attempts.

I think here it's because the definition of "deep" is > 21 yards.

My understanding of Pickett's "accuracy" or completion rate, or success, or whatever, is that he was good short, bad intermediate, and OK to good deep.

I think most people have said that the things he needs to be much better at are "red zone" and "intermediate (maybe something like 10-20 AY)" passing. IIRC, data in these segments put him among the worst of NFL starters. Hopefully (1) I'm wrong and (2) if I'm right it's something he can improve.

And that we need a system that lets him complete the short passes he's really good at and turn those short passes into bigger plays.

Edited to add: Didn't read the whole article yet, but it's encouraging that he seems to deliver under pressure. That fits the "clutch" narrative. Hopefully that pans out.

[feltdizz]

It really can't be argued that the schedule for sure lightened up in quality of opponent down the stretch. I mean, it just can't be argued.

@Cincinnati
New England
@Cleveland
New York Jets
@Buffalo
Tampa Bay
@Miami
@Philadelphia
vsNew Orleans
vsCincinnati
@Indianapolis
@Atlanta
vs Baltimore
@Carolina
vs Las Vegas
@Baltimore
vs Cleveland

I mean, NYJ, Fins, Bills, Eagles vs Raiders, Saints, Falcons, Panthers....ummmm, well........let's get real here.

Cincinnati and at Baltimore

I know you like to downplay division games
but they count.

and please don’t try the “but Lamar wasn’t playing” because there are multiple threads telling everyone Lamar sucks.. and Lamar does the play defense.

[NJ-STEELER]

It really can't be argued that the schedule for sure lightened up in quality of opponent down the stretch. I mean, it just can't be argued.

@Cincinnati
New England
@Cleveland
New York Jets
@Buffalo
Tampa Bay
@Miami
@Philadelphia
vsNew Orleans
vsCincinnati
@Indianapolis
@Atlanta
vs Baltimore
@Carolina
vs Las Vegas
@Baltimore
vs Cleveland

I mean, NYJ, Fins, Bills, Eagles vs Raiders, Saints, Falcons, Panthers....ummmm, well........let's get real here.

And previously mentioned.
the stat is skewed because while Baltimore overall record technically gives us a “ harder schedule” we played then both times against their back up.
Lamar was 8-4.
Huntley was 2-3.

so softer schedule then then stat alludes to

[NJ-STEELER]

Cincinnati and at Baltimore

I know you like to downplay division games
but they count.

and please don’t try the “but Lamar wasn’t playing” because there are multiple threads telling everyone Lamar sucks.. and Lamar does the play defense.

Even if Lamar does suck. He beat out the back up. No?

what was Kenny’s record compared to Mitch’s

do you really think playing a back up qb doesn’t matter?