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Thread: Steelers Remarkable Drafting

  1. #11
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    Nice post. Would be interesting to see all rounds and how we did.

    Interestingly when Cowher/Colbert were off, they were in the ballpark. When Tomlin/Colbert were off, they were way off in some cases.

    Ive always had a feeling Cowher/Colbert drafted safer/better with their 1st rounders, but Tomlin/Colbert take more risk which doesn’t always help in Round 1 but helps deeper in the draft.

    I always thought Cowher/Colbert’s conservative picks didn’t get us enough later in the draft.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joel Buchsbaum View Post
    Other safety taken later would have been better than Edmunds. He was a reach.
    Which Safeties?

    Not sure the methodology, but this analysis suggests that he was maybe a slight reach, but pretty fairly drafted (7 spots too high).

    I think we sometimes fall prey to the idea that pre-draft evaluations are correct (for good and bad).

  3. #13
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    not sure what metric was used but ziggy hood was not the right pick in either 2009 or now in retrospect

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJ-STEELER View Post
    not sure what metric was used but ziggy hood was not the right pick in either 2009 or now in retrospect
    As I said the metric is profootballreference's AV. You can read their methodology on their website. But it is meant to be an objective way to value a player's performance independently for comparison across the league regardless of position.
    In 2009 there were four players with identical AV's at the 32nd pick; Hood, Hakeem Nicks, Sean Smith, and Matt Slauson. Nicks wasn't available because he was picked 3 picks earlier by the Giants in Rd 1. Smith was drafted in the 2nd rd, and Slauson in the 6th. But any of those picks would have been equal in value based on the AV. You could say MIA got a bargain at pick 61 in Smith, and the NYJ got a steal with Clauson in the 6th rd since they all were valued as 32nd best.

    And btw, the Steelers picked Mike Wallace in the 3rd rd that year (pick #84) and he ended up the 10th best player in that draft.
    Last edited by NorthCoast; 04-22-2021 at 06:30 PM.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    As I said the metric is profootballreference's AV. You can read their methodology on their website. But it is meant to be an objective way to value a player's performance independently for comparison across the league regardless of position.
    In 2009 there were four players with identical AV's at the 32nd pick; Hood, Hakeem Nicks, Sean Smith, and Matt Slauson. Nicks wasn't available because he was picked 3 picks earlier by the Giants in Rd 1. Smith was drafted in the 2nd rd, and Slauson in the 6th. But any of those picks would have been equal in value based on the AV. You could say MIA got a bargain at pick 61 in Smith, and the NYJ got a steal with Clauson in the 6th rd since they all were valued as 32nd best.

    And btw, the Steelers picked Mike Wallace in the 3rd rd that year (pick #84) and he ended up the 10th best player in that draft.
    so does their method take need into account at all?

    we passed up a long tenured starting center to take a tweener on the DL who couldn't start over an old and often injured aaron smith. coming off a year where the league didn't see a defense preform as well in 25 years.

    vs. an bad OL with a center that almost cost us a SB championship

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJ-STEELER View Post
    so does their method take need into account at all?

    we passed up a long tenured starting center to take a tweener on the DL who couldn't start over an old and often injured aaron smith. coming off a year where the league didn't see a defense preform as well in 25 years.

    vs. an bad OL with a center that almost cost us a SB championship
    AV has nothing to do with the draft. It is basically career stats distilled down to a single number. So it is a quantitative look back at who was best. Example, Tom Brady has the highest AV in the database at something like 179.

    And again, I assumed that all teams were as smart as the Steelers and picked the highest rated player AV at their pick # regardless of position. (yes you can argue if this is flawed but it becomes way too complex otherwise). So when you say the Steelers passed up a center I am assuming you are referring to Max Unger selected by SEA at #49 who was 6th best player in the draft. But the Steelers could not have picked him because CIN would have picked him with the #6 pick in Rd 1 (rather than Andre Smith who they actually picked).

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    AV has nothing to do with the draft. It is basically career stats distilled down to a single number. So it is a quantitative look back at who was best. Example, Tom Brady has the highest AV in the database at something like 179.

    And again, I assumed that all teams were as smart as the Steelers and picked the highest rated player AV at their pick # regardless of position. (yes you can argue if this is flawed but it becomes way too complex otherwise). So when you say the Steelers passed up a center I am assuming you are referring to Max Unger selected by SEA at #49 who was 6th best player in the draft. But the Steelers could not have picked him because CIN would have picked him with the #6 pick in Rd 1 (rather than Andre Smith who they actually picked).
    I see. Thx for the clarification

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by flippy View Post
    Nice post. Would be interesting to see all rounds and how we did.

    Interestingly when Cowher/Colbert were off, they were in the ballpark. When Tomlin/Colbert were off, they were way off in some cases.

    Ive always had a feeling Cowher/Colbert drafted safer/better with their 1st rounders, but Tomlin/Colbert take more risk which doesn’t always help in Round 1 but helps deeper in the draft.

    I always thought Cowher/Colbert’s conservative picks didn’t get us enough later in the draft.
    It may also have to do with the fact that Cowher picked Offense twice as often as defense (who would have thought?). And Tomlin flipped by taking Defense twice as often as Offense. Hard to say...

    EDIT: to finish my thought outside of QB I think offensive positions are generally less risky (i.e. more defined) than defense. Hence less bad misses under Cowher.
    Last edited by NorthCoast; 04-23-2021 at 10:41 AM.

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