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Thread: Steelers Remarkable Drafting

  1. #1
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    Steelers Remarkable Drafting

    The question comes up just how often do the Steelers select the BPA in a given draft in the 1st round. Use profootball reference's weighted career AV as the measuring stick I went through each draft to see how often they 'hit'. The highlighted drafts were BPA picks. When the pick # didn't match the BPA, I list who should have been selected at that position based on their rank AV. This assumes all teams with prior picks selected the player with highest AV at their pick.
    I thought that if you factor in position needs that drafting BPA wouldn't happen all that often. Remarkably, from 2000 to 2018 the Steelers have hit on 42% of their picks as the best player at their pick # in each particular draft. I didn't go beyond 2018 because players haven't had the chance to establish themselves.
    One thing of note is that recent misses have been pretty far off. Fortunately they got back on track with Watt.

    Here's a summary;

    Year Pick# Who? Car_AV_rank in draft year Who should have been picked?
    2000 8 Burress 10th Shaun Alexander
    2001 19 Hampton 12th
    2002 30 K. Simmons 31st Steelers selected L. Foote in the 4th who ended with 8th highest AV
    2003 16 T. Polamalu 6th
    2004 11 Roethlisberger 2nd
    2005 30 H. Miller 31st J. Campbell
    2006 25 S. Holmes 36th DeMeco Ryans
    2007 15 L. Timmons 11th
    2008 23 R. Mendenhall 52nd C. Long/J Sullivan/A. Rubin
    2009 32 E. Hood 32nd
    2010 18 M. Pouncey 4th
    2011 31 C. Heyward 10th
    2012 24 D. DeCastro 14th
    2013 17 J. Jones 70th X. Rhodes
    2014 15 R. Shazier 53rd D. Lawrence
    2015 22 B. Dupree 38th S. Mason/D. Hunter/A. Marpet/R. Havenstein/R. Smith (all tied 22nd best)
    2016 25 A. Burns 82nd G. Ifedi/K. Byard
    2017 30 T.J. Watt 5th
    2018 28 T. Edmunds 35th H. Landry/M. Gallup

    If I get some time I want to go through the first three rounds to see how well their hit rate holds up. I am sure it will fall as the risks go up. It would also be interesting to see how they stack against the division and the league.

  2. #2
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    Nick Chubb and Darius Leonard would have been much better picks in 2018 than Terrell Edmunds.
    Steel Maniac predicted no RBs would be chosen in the 1st round, so of course we selected:

    1(24) Najee Harris RB Alabama


  3. #3
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    Thanks NorthCoast.

    I think it's really cool to see how successful the team has been using these kind of metrics.

    I'm not asking you to do this, but it would be interesting to see how pundits do against AV. I think it would be an interesting way to see if any of them are any good at actually predicting value. Personally, I tend to think that scouting is a lot like individual stock picking in that few people are repeatably good at it over long periods of time.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteel View Post
    Nick Chubb and Darius Leonard would have been much better picks in 2018 than Terrell Edmunds.
    But if I'm reading this right, there are only 7 guys available that have had better careers so far. And I would guess that the difference between guys in that list isn't huge.

    I think that means that the Steelers judged his value better than those who say things like he was a 3rd round talent or whatever.

    But maybe I'm reading the data wrong.

    Really only 3 really bad picks on this list (Mendenhall, Jones, and Burns).

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    But if I'm reading this right, there are only 7 guys available that have had better careers so far. And I would guess that the difference between guys in that list isn't huge.

    I think that means that the Steelers judged his value better than those who say things like he was a 3rd round talent or whatever.

    But maybe I'm reading the data wrong.

    Really only 3 really bad picks on this list (Mendenhall, Jones, and Burns).
    Another question I think would be really interesting if someone had all the time in the world and access to all of the data:

    "Are there positions that miss more frequently than others?"

    I'm guessing that QB is massively over drafted in the 1st round.

    But seeing information on positions like RB might shed some light on the argument of whether RBs are worth 1st round picks anymore.

    And does the answer change depending on the timeframe. RBs might look really good if you look at a timeframe of 3 years. But maybe they look much worse at 6 years.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteel View Post
    Nick Chubb and Darius Leonard would have been much better picks in 2018 than Terrell Edmunds.
    Doesn't work that way. It assumes the other teams also take BPA at their pick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteel View Post
    Nick Chubb and Darius Leonard would have been much better picks in 2018 than Terrell Edmunds.
    Would’ve improved our ground game but that doesn’t fix the secondary.

    While some think we overdrafted Edmunds I think he has been solid. He isn’t a game changer with turnovers so I get why folks are upset but he is a solid tackler.

    and solid tackling can actually change games it just doesn’t translate until a tackle is missed.
    Tomlinís coming back so what can you do?


  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Doesn't work that way. It assumes the other teams also take BPA at their pick.
    I understand, was just making an observation.

    I would much rather have Edmunds than Harold Landry and Michael Gallup.
    Steel Maniac predicted no RBs would be chosen in the 1st round, so of course we selected:

    1(24) Najee Harris RB Alabama


  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by feltdizz View Post
    Would’ve improved our ground game but that doesn’t fix the secondary.

    While some think we overdrafted Edmunds I think he has been solid. He isn’t a game changer with turnovers so I get why folks are upset but he is a solid tackler.

    and solid tackling can actually change games it just doesn’t translate until a tackle is missed.
    I agree. For as much as we (me included) dogged Edmunds, he wasn't the miss we feared.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteel View Post
    Nick Chubb and Darius Leonard would have been much better picks in 2018 than Terrell Edmunds.
    Other safety taken later would have been better than Edmunds. He was a reach.
    Plan to spend 75 million in cap space in 2022 ( most in the NFL ) and use the 2 comp picks ( 3rd and 5th ) for a killer 2022 draft. We will be back hopefully with better coaching.

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