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Thread: 1st Cut Projecting Comp Picks

  1. #1
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    1st Cut Projecting Comp Picks

    This was asked for on another thread, so I'll give it a go.

    I'll take the breakpoints from the OTC "Projecting the 2021 Comp Picks" page linked here.
    https://overthecap.com/projecting-th...nsatory-picks/

    They have the deals they projected from last season and I'll use the same break point range. This is probably far from perfect, but might give us a general idea of what's going on on this front.

    Note that the league didn't award a bunch of the 6th round picks or any of the 7th round picks because there were too many qualifying guys. That might happen again this year so anyone in the low 6th or 7th round might not get us anything.

    I've reserved the next post to track guys we add and guys we lose.

    From the linked page, here are the estimated breakpoints:

    Round Min for this round (APY)* Max for next round (APY)**
    3 $14M $14M (2)
    4 $10M (2) $10M (1)
    5 $6.5 (1) $5 (1)
    6 $3.375M $3.75M
    7 $2M N/A

    * Lowest APY to get that round comp pick
    ** Highest APY to get the next round comp pick

    Let me know if you have any thoughts on changes to the method here and I'll try to make it better.

    More reading on comp picks:
    https://overthecap.com/the-basics-an...y-draft-picks/

    [A] Compensatory Free Agent (“CFA”) shall be defined as an Unrestricted Free Agent (“UFA”) who: (i) signed with a new Club during the prior free agency signing period […] prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the Monday following the NFL Draft for that League Year1 […]; and (ii) ranked within the top 35%2 of all League players […]. Clubs that lose to other Clubs a greater number of CFAs than they sign or acquire from other Clubs shall be eligible to receive a Compensatory Draft Selection in the College Draft to be held in the following League Year subject to the provisions set forth below.

    In plain English, if a team loses more players that qualify as CFAs than it signs during free agency, that team is eligible to be awarded compensatory picks in the following NFL draft.

    It is important to note that only certain players qualify for the compensatory formula. Those are only players whose contracts expire. Players who are cut are the most common example of free agents ineligible to become CFAs, but other methods of disqualification, such as a Restricted Free Agent not given a tender, also exist. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

    So to qualify, you need to (i) sign with a new club and (ii) have your contract expire (i.e. not a guy that gets cut).

    Note that in that webpage the actual APY is based on percentiles of contracts signed:
    - 3rd round [95th - 100th]
    - 4th round [90th - 95th]
    - 5th round [85th - 90th]
    - 6th round [75th - 85th]
    - 7th round [65th - 75th]

    But without knowing all the signings, I'll just use last year's numbers here. Hopefully it's in the ball park.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 03-17-2021 at 12:24 PM.

  2. #2
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    Adds
    - Sutton (does not count, own guy APY = $4.5M)
    - Banner (does not count, own guy APY = $4.89M)

    Note: I think only external guys who's contract ended (i.e. weren't cut) count in the comp pick formula. For example, if we resigned Jesse James I don't think it counts because he was cut by the Lions (did not reach the end of his contract).

    Losses
    - Dupree (APY = $16.4)
    - Feiler (APY = $7M)
    - Hilton (APY = $6M)
    - Alualu (APY = $3M)

    Note: I think that part of how these are awarded is by how many you go down by. I think there is a cap per team on the losses. And I think we might end up sliding down to a lower tier if we're getting say 4 and another team is only getting 1. I think this is why the max for the 7th rounder is higher than the low for the 6th above.

    Expected losses that I think still qualify: Juju, AV, Connor

    Cancellations:
    I don't think we have any cancellations yet because we've only signed internal guys.
    I think if you're looking for outsides guys we might sign, look for:
    (a) cheap (under $2M APY);
    (b) cut by another team (e.g. Jesse James);
    (c) low end comp guy once we get over the max of 4 (which we're at now even before Juju and AV get deals); or
    (d) after the date where they stop calculating comp picks.

    I will try to keep this up to date, but if anyone wants to post contract details of guys we sign or lose below I'd be happy to have the help.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 03-17-2021 at 09:33 AM.

  3. #3
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    Predictions

    Based on what we have above (I'll try to keep this up to date), I think we'd predict getting 3 or 4 picks.

    3rd (Bud)
    4th / 5th (Feiler)
    5th (Hilton)
    7th (Tyson)*

    * Remember that there weren't any 7th given out this year because they only do 32 comp picks.

    I think we'll expect to be in that 3 to 4 range with the numbers going up after Juju and AV get signed. Although I guess the longer things go, the more chance we bring one of those guys back (I don't think either stays though).
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 03-17-2021 at 09:13 AM.

  4. #4
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    Can’t trade comp picks but it will be nice getting several picks for our losses.

  5. #5
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    A very interesting thread. I hope Colbert is paying a lot of attention to projected comp picks. There is a private website who has been very spot on as to which team get what and with the round given. I forget the address.

    On comp picks a few things.

    1 ) You can trade them! It's a newer rule.

    2 ) The most any team can get is 4 in a given year.

    Here's my stab at what we will get.

    3rd (Bud)
    5th to 6th (Feiler)

    Ju-ju, I hope is worth a 3rd or 4th. We'll get something for him. My guess is a 4th.

    We might get a 4th comp pick in 2022.
    Plan to spend $110,094,402 in cap space in 2022 and have 4 comp picks + what we have in the 2022 draft. We will be back hopefully with better coaching.

    See post from 4-27.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelBucks View Post
    Can’t trade comp picks but it will be nice getting several picks for our losses.
    It has been 3 years now that they are tradeable.


  7. #7
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    All I know is I hope we use a future picks from 2022, to trade up to get back in the 2nd this year, if we can't trade back from the 1st.


  8. #8
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    Since it's capped at 32 picks doesn't that mean you have to wait for all the big name signings to see where Steeler FAs fall? This is a weird year with so many FAs available that it might take blockbuster deals to get anything at all...i.e. they might only get something for Bud and Juju.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Since it's capped at 32 picks doesn't that mean you have to wait for all the big name signings to see where Steeler FAs fall? This is a weird year with so many FAs available that it might take blockbuster deals to get anything at all...i.e. they might only get something for Bud and Juju.
    Yes.

    I don't think I'll do the math, but based on the info above it looks like you could essentially predict everything once the comp pick eligible time window ends.

    Drop all the qualifying contracts into a spread sheet and sort by AYP.

    Draw lines at the percentile breakpoints in the first post.

    Go team by team to see which contracts cancel out. Not sure if this step would be before or after the last point. But I think it would be after.

    See what's left.

    I used last years AYP numbers to get an idea where the breakpoints would be. I could see them changing more than usual though since this off season should be weird. Especially as we get further from the 3rd round comps.

    If we thought of those salaries as %age of the cap, the breakpoints would go down. But the high end guys still seem to be getting paid a lot. Not sure how that compares to previous years though...maybe it is down?

    I think you're also right that the volume of UFAs might be higher than a normal year...although guys that got cut don't count so big contracts like JJ Watt won't count.

    The process seems straight forward enough. But I think it would take a bunch of time. Especially looking at cancellations across teams.

  10. #10
    Legend

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    Quote Originally Posted by steeler_george View Post
    It has been 3 years now that they are tradeable.
    Thanks. Where have I been?

    May be some wheeling and dealing in the 2022 draft.

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