Tomlin agrees to 3-year extension per Bleacher Report

[Northern_Blitz]

Can we just stop with the political takes? Did that on the Sutton thread. When politics is top of mind all the time it makes one wonder if that is central to an opinion. That said-

You might be surprised, I don?t hate this take:


This more measured criticism I got no beef with. Some are criticism I have made myself.

I don?t agree completely but I can respect it absolutely.

FWIW, I don't think people push back against the criticisms Windy listed here. Some overlap with the list I gave upthread.

I think the argument is over the "context" of how important they are. And also why is the regular season winning percentage so high.

It's interesting that using defensive stats to argue that Watt > Garrett for DMVP (better or the same in every stat last year) is using cave man logic. Because 17 games isn't a large enough sample size. You need the context of pass rush win rate to understand that Garrett will get more sacks in a larger sample (needs more than 100 games apparently...but Garrett has a lot of catching up to do - see follow up post below).

But it's reasonable to judge a coach (probably only one coach) by the result of 4/18 games he's been in since playing for the AFCC. While neglecting the results of the 275 regular season games (except maybe cherry picking a couple of the bad losses).

No one likes that we've been bad in the playoffs recently.

Just like the coaches are trying to make the offense bad.

But there are reasons for these results. And there's probably more context to the results than "Tomlin sucks".

[Northern_Blitz]

Follow up post:

The argument for PFF grades and metrics like pass rush win rate are better than "counting stats" because they will predict results better over large samples.

But it simply doesn't work for the Watt / Garrett comparison. Both are very good players who have seen about the same number of games. TJ is better in every single counting stat (even on a per game basis). And he's often much better. Garrett is also a very good player.

But Watt's production (actual impact) is insanely good. He's about to become the second fastest player to 100 sacks (to Reggie White). But he beats Garrett in every other category too. So the argument that he just sits around and let's Highsmith swat balls that he can recover is bogus (because he has was more FFs too).

	Watt	Garrett
Games played	104	100
Tackles (per game)	401 (3.86)	305 (3.05)
Solo	291 (2.80)	210 (2.10)
TFL	107 (1.03)	94 (0.94)
QB Hits	198 (1.90)	172 (1.72)
FF	27 (0.26)	17 (0.17)
FR	10 (0.10)	5 (0.05)
Sk	96.5 (0.93)	88 (0.8
PD	45 (0.43)	16 (0.16)
INT	7	0

There is clearly something that Watt does that isn't accounted for in the model.

To tie this back to the Tomlin discussion. I think it was the Terrible podcast (?), but there was a reader email asking if maybe the reason that the Steelers wins have been consistently underpredicted in recent years is that they think that winning close games isn't a repeatable and there should be some reversion to the mean. But the way we're playing (I'd say being forced to play) has given consistently good results in close games for a while. The notable exception I can think of off the top of my head was one of the Connor years when we had a bunch of turnovers and I think lost a lot of close games.

My guess is that the predictors / modelers hate the Steelers. Because they win more games than they are supposed to and they can't figure out why. Even though we dropped two terrible games because Tomlin decided to play Mitch over Mason.

[NorthCoast]

Follow up post:

The argument for PFF grades and metrics like pass rush win rate are better than "counting stats" because they will predict results better over large samples.

But it simply doesn't work for the Watt / Garrett comparison. Both are very good players who have seen about the same number of games. TJ is better in every single counting stat (even on a per game basis). And he's often much better. Garrett is also a very good player.

But Watt's production (actual impact) is insanely good. He's about to become the second fastest player to 100 sacks (to Reggie White). But he beats Garrett in every other category too. So the argument that he just sits around and let's Highsmith swat balls that he can recover is bogus (because he has was more FFs too).

	Watt	Garrett
Games played	104	100
Tackles (per game)	401 (3.86)	305 (3.05)
Solo	291 (2.80)	210 (2.10)
TFL	107 (1.03)	94 (0.94)
QB Hits	198 (1.90)	172 (1.72)
FF	27 (0.26)	17 (0.17)
FR	10 (0.10)	5 (0.05)
Sk	96.5 (0.93)	88 (0.8
PD	45 (0.43)	16 (0.16)
INT	7	0

There is clearly something that Watt does that isn't accounted for in the model.

To tie this back to the Tomlin discussion. I think it was the Terrible podcast (?), but there was a reader email asking if maybe the reason that the Steelers wins have been consistently underpredicted in recent years is that they think that winning close games isn't a repeatable and there should be some reversion to the mean. But the way we're playing (I'd say being forced to play) has given consistently good results in close games for a while. The notable exception I can think of off the top of my head was one of the Connor years when we had a bunch of turnovers and I think lost a lot of close games.

My guess is that the predictors / modelers hate the Steelers. Because they win more games than they are supposed to and they can't figure out why. Even though we dropped two terrible games because Tomlin decided to play Mitch over Mason.

I remember posting a writeup a while back by a Cleveland writer who showed how the Steelers win far more games than they should based on Vegas odds. His conclusion at the end (as a Browns fan) basically said the Steelers eventually have to revert to the mean. And that was a few years ago...

[Northern_Blitz]

I remember posting a writeup a while back by a Cleveland writer who showed how the Steelers win far more games than they should based on Vegas odds. His conclusion at the end (as a Browns fan) basically said the Steelers eventually have to revert to the mean. And that was a few years ago...

That's pretty funny. I'm sure Browns fans are hoping they regress to the mean too.

[Prowler]

What a bullshi**er. I would have tuned him out in the first minute. He says a lot of nothing. It's why he can't motivate players.

https://x.com/steelers/status/1801602237564915866

[NorthCoast]

What a bullshi**er. I would have tuned him out in the first minute. He says a lot of nothing. It's why he can't motivate players.

https://x.com/steelers/status/1801602237564915866

I'm gonna assume that is sarcasm....

[Flasteel]

What a bullshi**er. I would have tuned him out in the first minute. He says a lot of nothing. It's why he can't motivate players.

https://x.com/steelers/status/1801602237564915866

It's why he can't do what?

[Prowler]

It's why he can't do what?

Can't motivate his players. It's all word salad. Players are tuning him for this reason. When you say all mumble jumble Tomlinisms, and then he can't backup the nonsense with a prepared football team, guys quit listening in the locker room. That is what is happening on the team, I believe.

[WindyCitySteel]

That whole thing looked stilted because it was being filmed. I'd like to see the hidden camera version, but I'm guessing it wouldn't be safe for work.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Flasteel says

The bottom line for me is that this team is in a position to challenge for a playoff spot each and every year and that is a testament to the head coach and the culture of the program.

We have been in that postion for the last seven years and still have not won a playoff game. Can you name the other teams that haven't won a playoff game in seven years? Please think about it.

You are endorsing mediocrity. Not that the Steelers lack talent, rather we under perform relative to the talent we have and that is coaching.

We are not going anywhere this year. That is my opinion and it is back by facts.

Too many divas, new players, and bad QB's ...mix in a flawed head coach who is very overrated by some in the media. Tomlin has a horrible track record of hiring people , and retaining the good coaches he has had. He has no head coaching tree.

I'm a die hard fan, but Tomlin has been killing me softly for years.

In the end, it is one man's fault. He can't be fired. The odds are strong he will be in his role for the next ten years. His name, Art Rooney II. The Rooney rule.

As such Tomlin will never be fired.

[Flasteel]

We have been in that postion for the last seven years and still have not won a playoff game. Can you name the other teams that haven't won a playoff game in seven years? Please think about it.

You are endorsing mediocrity. Not that the Steelers lack talent, rather we under perform relative to the talent we have and that is coaching.

We are not going anywhere this year. That is my opinion and it is back by facts.

Too many divas, new players, and bad QB's ...mix in a flawed head coach who is very overrated by some in the media. Tomlin has a horrible track record of hiring people , and retaining the good coaches he has had. He has no head coaching tree.

I'm a die hard fan, but Tomlin has been killing me softly for years.

In the end, it is one man's fault. He can't be fired. The odds are strong he will be in his role for the next ten years. His name, Art Rooney II. The Rooney rule.

As such Tomlin will never be fired.

The Dolphins haven't won a playoff game in 23 years. The Raiders haven't won one in 21 years. There are several more teams in double-digits.

In this thread alone there are several posts that factually point out how the Steelers have consistently overperformed against their predicted record...not underperformed. Perhaps you are basing your conclusion on the inexplicable losses to inferior teams that seem to happen every year? Tomlin deserves heat for that, but it doesn't make your observation about underperforming a correct one.

It's fine if you don't think the team is going anywhere this year. You are of course entitled to your opinion. However, there are no "facts" that back that up. Just your collection of cobbled-together opinions like having too many new players, too many divas, and bad QBs...oh, and of course his coaching tree, which we all know is bound to sink this team in 2024.

I do agree that Tomlin will never be fired. He will likely walk away in a mutually arranged exit with Rooney, if that playoff win doesn't come soon.

I'm curious to know when your hatred of Tomlin started. Was it two years after the last playoff win? Five years? Have you ever been okay with Mike Tomlin as this team's head coach?

[Flasteel]

Can't motivate his players. It's all word salad. Players are tuning him for this reason. When you say all mumble jumble Tomlinisms, and then he can't backup the nonsense with a prepared football team, guys quit listening in the locker room. That is what is happening on the team, I believe.

What players are turning on him? You must be one of the only football-watching humans on the planet who think Tomlin can't motivate his players or that he is losing his locker room. It is simply an absurd statement that has zero factual support. The players LOVE this dude and they talk about it all the time. Players come here because of him.

[Buzz]

That whole thing looked stilted because it was being filmed. I'd like to see the hidden camera version, but I'm guessing it wouldn't be safe for work.

LOL, you know the language would be saltier in the real deal

If AB was still with the team, he might have posted the real speech to Facebook

[Joel Buchsbaum]

What players are turning on him? You must be one of the only football-watching humans on the planet who think Tomlin can't motivate his players or that he is losing his locker room. It is simply an absurd statement that has zero factual support. The players LOVE this dude and they talk about it all the time. Players come here because of him.

UM, Harris is turning on him and Heyward is actual talking about playing for another team. " I want volunteers, not hostages - Mike Tomlin "

A laundry list of bad apples, which Heyward is not one of them. A long diva list like not other coach Tomlin has. Why is this so? Think about that.

That is a factual response. He has motivated this team to seven non- playoff winning seasons. I'd fire him. Art Rooney II, won't.

To answer your question in this thread, I was okay with Tomlin in 2016. That was a long time ago. He has not aged well in my opinion even if he has a super bowl ring ( With Bill Cowher players 20 out of 22 were Cowher molded and all of Bill's coaches ) in his back pocket 15+ years ago. He is Barry Switzer like, but without a college resume.

What advantage does Tomlin bring in your opinion since 2016?

[Mr.wizard]

UM, Harris is turning on him and Heyward is actual talking about playing for another team. " I want volunteers, not hostages - Mike Tomlin "

A laundry list of bad apples, which Heyward is not one of them. A long diva list like not other coach Tomlin has. Why is this so? Think about that.

That is a factual response. He has motivated this team to seven non- playoff winning seasons. I'd fire him. Art Rooney II, won't.

To answer your question in this thread, I was okay with Tomlin in 2016. That was a long time ago. He has not aged well in my opinion even if he has a super bowl ring ( With Bill Cowher players 20 out of 22 were Cowher molded and all of Bill's coaches ) in his back pocket 15+ years ago. He is Barry Switzer like, but without a college resume.

What advantage does Tomlin bring in your opinion since 2016?

Those guys aren't turning on Tomlin, those guys have contract situations.