TJ Snubbed Again

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  • flippy
    Legend
    • Dec 2008
    • 17088

    #31
    Originally posted by Captain Lemming
    Dang you KILLED IT here man. Spot on. Simple logic at its finest.
    Or you could just listen to players like Ramon Foster talk about how OL just run rushers past the QB where they can?t make a play anyway.

    I bet if PFF tracked Run the Defender By The QB So He Can?t Make a Play Rate, Myles would dominate TJ in that stat too. And he would dominate by a much bigger %.

    I also wonder why they don?t track number of offside penalties. I can?t find those numbers anywhere but I think Myles leads the league in those penalties by a large margin.
    sigpic

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    • WindyCitySteel
      Legend
      • Nov 2011
      • 14642

      #32
      You guys are totally pantsing yourselves here, you claim to know what PFF does and you don't understand what a turnover-worthy play is in their system? And why it matters?

      Do you credit Purdy for the long reception that should have been an INT but bounced off the defender's face, after which Aiyuk made a spectacular catch?

      If you don't know why Purdy got a negative grade on that play, you'll never understand PFF and contextual-based grading.
      Last edited by WindyCitySteel; 02-09-2024, 03:41 PM.

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      • NorthCoast
        Legend
        • Sep 2008
        • 25376

        #33
        Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
        You guys are totally pantsing yourselves here, you claim to know what PFF does and you don't understand what a turnover-worthy play is in their system? And why it matters?

        Do you credit Purdy for the long reception that should have been an INT but bounced off the defender's face, after which Aiyuk made a spectacular catch?

        If you don't know why Purdy got a negative grade on that play, you'll never understand PFF and contextual-based grading.
        ESPN?s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback?s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team?s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.
        Just in case you weren't aware, PFF doesn't have a corner on the context based measurement for QBs.

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        • Northern_Blitz
          Legend
          • Dec 2008
          • 23259

          #34
          Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
          You guys are totally pantsing yourselves here, you claim to know what PFF does and you don't understand what a turnover-worthy play is in their system? And why it matters?

          Do you credit Purdy for the long reception that should have been an INT but bounced off the defender's face, after which Aiyuk made a spectacular catch?

          If you don't know why Purdy got a negative grade on that play, you'll never understand PFF and contextual-based grading.
          We're talking about Watt.

          Why do you think it's more important that Garret supposedly gave himself way more opportunities to make plays, but still fell well short of the number of actual plays made by TJ?

          Again...I think having a large win rate and not making plays (hurry, sack, TFL, FF, etc) is like getting separation but not catching the ball.

          Except when a WR doesn't catch the ball, sometimes that's not on them because the QB doesn't throw them the ball. Defenders beating their man (presumably becoming open in the backfield) but not doing anything (hurry, sack, TFL, FF, etc) is about them not finishing the play. This is why I think it's crazy that stats guys talk about TJ having a high motor like it's a bad thing. When really it's just showing that the models they use aren't good at predicting when you have someone that can finish plays like TJ does.

          Win rate seems to me to be a good metric for trying to predict future success (like shots are a proxy for chance to score in hockey). But the end of the year isn't about predicting what's going to happen. It's about evaluating what did happen.

          And again...the actual plays matter. Because the difference between winning and losing is that you win because you make plays and you lose because you almost make plays.

          Does PFF still track "PFF Sacks"? Remember when they were saying that Garret had more PFF sacks than TJ? I don't know if they abandoned that metric, of if other news outlets just stopped reporting it because they realized that they were "pantsing themselves".
          Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 02-09-2024, 03:57 PM.

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          • T.Ferguson
            Pro Bowler
            • Sep 2021
            • 2269

            #35
            I just don't understand the comparison people are making between Garrett and Watt saying Garrett is more impressive because he's double teamed more like wtf does that have to do with Watt's performance? They play two different positions. So I guess Lawrence Taylor wasn't that great either since he wasn't double teamed that much? No DPOY for him I guess lol. Make it make sense someone.

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            • feltdizz
              Legend
              • May 2008
              • 26838

              #36
              Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
              You guys are totally pantsing yourselves here, you claim to know what PFF does and you don't understand what a turnover-worthy play is in their system? And why it matters?

              Do you credit Purdy for the long reception that should have been an INT but bounced off the defender's face, after which Aiyuk made a spectacular catch?

              If you don't know why Purdy got a negative grade on that play, you'll never understand PFF and contextual-based grading.
              No.. I don’t credit Purdy for that one play. But what about the other plays where he hits guys in stride or extends a play and moves the chains?

              Just seems like you keep talking about a few negative play while telling everyone its about every play.. yet when you look at every play by Watt and Garrett, TJ always ends up with more impact plays.
              Steelers 27
              Rats 16

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              • Northern_Blitz
                Legend
                • Dec 2008
                • 23259

                #37
                Originally posted by T.Ferguson
                I just don't understand the comparison people are making between Garrett and Watt saying Garrett is more impressive because he's double teamed more like wtf does that have to do with Watt's performance? They play two different positions. So I guess Lawrence Taylor wasn't that great either since he wasn't double teamed that much? No DPOY for him I guess lol. Make it make sense someone.
                And is he actually double teamed more? My understanding is that the definition used for "double teamed" in that stat isn't what a normal person might think it is.

                I heard or read somewhere that if TJ gets blocked by an OT and a TE, then gets chipped by a RB that it doesn't count in the double team statistic. But if Garret is blocked by an OT and an OG (or an OG and a C) then it is.

                But I don't know exactly how it's determined what a double team is.

                And it's hard to find exactly how it's defined on line.

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                • Northern_Blitz
                  Legend
                  • Dec 2008
                  • 23259

                  #38
                  Originally posted by feltdizz
                  No.. I don’t credit Purdy for that one play. But what about the other plays where he hits guys in stride or extends a play and moves the chains?

                  Just seems like you keep talking about a few negative play while telling everyone its about every play.. yet when you look at every play by Watt and Garrett, TJ always ends up with more impact plays.
                  Don't you get it Felt, beating your guy on the left side of the formation when the QB is doing a designed roll to the right is just as important as a strip sack.

                  I do wonder if TJ housed that beautiful pick if he would have got it. But it really did seem like the writing was on the wall early in the year for Garret.

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                  • flippy
                    Legend
                    • Dec 2008
                    • 17088

                    #39
                    Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
                    You guys are totally pantsing yourselves here, you claim to know what PFF does and you don't understand what a turnover-worthy play is in their system? And why it matters?

                    Do you credit Purdy for the long reception that should have been an INT but bounced off the defender's face, after which Aiyuk made a spectacular catch?

                    If you don't know why Purdy got a negative grade on that play, you'll never understand PFF and contextual-based grading.
                    Myles stats vs Purdy and the 49ers this year:

                    3 Tackles
                    1 Solo
                    1 QB Hit

                    TJ Stats vs Purdy and the 49ers

                    5 Tackels
                    5 Solo
                    3 Sacks
                    1 TFL
                    1 PD
                    5 QB Hits
                    1 Fumble Recovery


                    But Myles won more pass rushes and Cleveland beat SF while we got crushed.

                    TJs stats had 0 impact on the game despite being awesome.

                    Myles almost single handedly won the game running by Purdy many more times and scaring him or doing something else that helped Cleveland win the game. I didn?t watch so I have no idea. I defer to PFF and the experts on this one.
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                    • feltdizz
                      Legend
                      • May 2008
                      • 26838

                      #40
                      Miles Garrett
                      14 Sacks - tied for 7th
                      30 QB hits - tied for 8th
                      17 TFL - tied for 7th
                      79 QB pressures - tied for 9th
                      4 Forced Fumbles - tied for 5th
                      Steelers 27
                      Rats 16

                      Comment

                      • feltdizz
                        Legend
                        • May 2008
                        • 26838

                        #41
                        Originally posted by flippy
                        Myles stats vs Purdy and the 49ers this year:

                        3 Tackles
                        1 Solo
                        1 QB Hit

                        TJ Stats vs Purdy and the 49ers

                        5 Tackels
                        5 Solo
                        3 Sacks
                        1 TFL
                        1 PD
                        5 QB Hits
                        1 Fumble Recovery


                        But Myles won more pass rushes and Cleveland beat SF while we got crushed.

                        TJs stats had 0 impact on the game despite being awesome.

                        Myles almost single handedly won the game running by Purdy many more times and scaring him or doing something else that helped Cleveland win the game. I didn?t watch so I have no idea. I defer to PFF and the experts on this one.
                        SF missed a game winning FG too on the last play.. lol.
                        Steelers 27
                        Rats 16

                        Comment

                        • Northern_Blitz
                          Legend
                          • Dec 2008
                          • 23259

                          #42
                          Originally posted by feltdizz
                          Miles Garrett
                          14 Sacks - tied for 7th
                          30 QB hits - tied for 8th
                          17 TFL - tied for 7th
                          79 QB pressures - tied for 9th
                          4 Forced Fumbles - tied for 5th
                          Not top 3 in anything.

                          Top 5 in one thing. The only thing he tied Watt with.

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                          • hawaiiansteel
                            Legend
                            • May 2008
                            • 34523

                            #43
                            Micah Parsons: Myles Garrett's presence is way more dominant than T.J. Watt

                            Published February 9, 2024

                            When Myles Garrett won defensive player of the year on Thursday night at NFL Honors, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons not only congratulated the Browns edge rusher, but he defended him from criticism. Most of the criticism came from Steelers fans, whose own edge rusher, T.J. Watt, finished second despite leading the league in sacks.

                            Parsons continued to defend Garrett on Friday and implied that Watt is a sore loser.

                            Watt didn't attend NFL Honors despite being on radio row in Las Vegas earlier in the week, and posted, Nothing I'm not used to, just before Garrett was announced as the winner.

                            I;m not a sore loser, Parsons told Zach Gelb of CBS Sports. I thought it should have went to Myles if not me, and I said that publicly, and it's as simple as that. Myles, look at the Titans game alone. No offense, but T.J. played the Titans. Did you see two tight ends following T.J. Watt? Like they're following him all across the line [like they did with Garrett].

                            People can say whatever they want, but the film does not lie. His presence is way more dominant than T.J. Watt, and that's just the reality of it.

                            Garrett received 23 of 50 first-place votes and 165 total points, with Watt second (19 first-place votes, 140 points) and Parsons third (7, 89).

                            Watt led the NFL in sacks for the third time in four years, getting 19 in 2023. It was 1.5 more than Jaguars edge rusher Josh Allen had and five more than Parsons and Garrett.

                            Parsons, though, argues that Watt is not even a top-five pass rusher in the league.

                            If you're talking about best pure pass rusher, I would say if you look my win rate, I was the best one this year, so it would be me [No. 1], Parsons said. Then, I would say Myles. Then, I would say Maxx [Crosby]. Then, I would say Nick Bosa.

                            I mean, look at the stats. The stats don't lie. . . . I think [Watt] might have been fifth or sixth [in pass rush win rate and double team rate]. Alex Highsmith I think had a better pass rush rate and a more double team rate than T.J. Watt if you want to be statistical. This isn't my stuff. I'm not just pulling this out of my hat. Like, look at the stats.

                            Parsons said he has nothing against Watt, but he made clear he didn't like Watt's reaction to not winning the award. Watt won defensive player of the year in 2021.

                            There's no beef at all, Parsons said. One thing I hate about the NFL community and NBA community, we just hate when someone else wins. When I lost to T.J., I did not go in and say, I got snubbed. I just said, I'm going to go to work. When I lost to Nick Bosa the year after that, I did not say, I got snubbed. I just said, I'm going to work. The biggest mistake in people is saying that someone is not deserving. Who are you to say someone is not deserving of an award of that magnitude?

                            When Myles Garrett won defensive player of the year on Thursday night at NFL Honors, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons not only congratulated the Browns edge rusher, but he defended him from criticism.
                            Last edited by hawaiiansteel; 02-09-2024, 08:31 PM.

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                            • flippy
                              Legend
                              • Dec 2008
                              • 17088

                              #44
                              Originally posted by T.Ferguson
                              I just don't understand the comparison people are making between Garrett and Watt saying Garrett is more impressive because he's double teamed more like wtf does that have to do with Watt's performance? They play two different positions. So I guess Lawrence Taylor wasn't that great either since he wasn't double teamed that much? No DPOY for him I guess lol. Make it make sense someone.
                              Yeah it doesn?t make sense.

                              Wouldnt TJ get doubled less when he?s on the field because he?s not rushing the QB as often.

                              He plays OLB and drops into coverage too.

                              How about a stat that tracks pass rush efficiency. We all know TJ doesn?t even get as many chances to rush the QB as these others and he would dominate.

                              Actually he?s probably be second to his protege Herbig who seems to make big plays despite not even playing.
                              sigpic

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                              • Captain Lemming
                                Legend
                                • Jun 2008
                                • 15960

                                #45
                                Originally posted by flippy
                                Yeah it doesn?t make sense.

                                Wouldnt TJ get doubled less when he?s on the field because he?s not rushing the QB as often.

                                He plays OLB and drops into coverage too.

                                How about a stat that tracks pass rush efficiency. We all know TJ doesn?t even get as many chances to rush the QB as these others and he would dominate.
                                YESSSS. Pass rush EFFICIENCY.
                                BOTH a REAL factor in play making and geeky sounding enough to impress football nerds.
                                sigpic



                                In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:

                                TCFCLTC-
                                The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than Cowher

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