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I said this YEARS AGO.
PFF thinks they are smarter than everyone. Idiot voters BELIEVE them.
JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE METRICS THAT REGULAR FOLKS CANNOT CALCULATE DOES NOT MAKE THOSE METRICS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE OBVIOUS.
I keep beating a drum with facts and figures that show pff is a joke.
Their metrics say:
1. 2021 Minkah was ONE OF THE WORST SAFETIES IN THE LEAGUE. He led the Steelers and ALL SECONDARY PLAYERS in tackles. Yes we know tackles indicate bad front 7 play. But Minkah had all those tackles and ranked worse than run game specialist Edmonds.
If you watched the games you see Minkah had a few legit bad games early. But mostly he was tasked with cleaning up for everybody else. If you end up with 14 tackles half of which are covering for others (which pff could care less about) but you miss a tackle coming across the field that you have no business getting in position to make, you get docked? THAT is ridiculous.
2. 2022 TJ WAS MORE DOMINANT THAN THIS SEASON yet pff had Garrett as better because of ONE METRIC pass rush win rate.
Win rate IS MEANINGLESS independent of RESULTS. It is a FACTOR THAT CONTRIBUTES to success not success in an of itself.sigpic
In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:
TCFCLTC-
The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than CowherComment
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3. Per pff the Steelers best post Ben QB play is:
1. 2022 Mitch
2. 2022 Kenny
3. 2023 Kenny
4. 2023 Mason
An example of why Mitch gets such high ratings?
2022 week 3 Mitch had a higher game than Mahommes had at that point of the season.
Mitch had 207 yards and 0 touchdowns in a loss. He was the highest rated Steeler.
Mahommes not only had 235 TDs and 2 TDs that same week and got a lower pff rating. He had FIVE TOUCHDOWNS in week one and had a lower rating than Mitch?s ZERO TOUCHDOWN loss. Keep in mind Mahommes threw NO PICKS in those games.
Last edited by Captain Lemming; 02-09-2024, 12:54 PM.sigpic
In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:
TCFCLTC-
The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than CowherComment
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I have failed you, grasshopper. Mahomes had three turnover worthy plays in that week 2 win over the Chargers in 2022, which negatively affected his grade.
You (and others) keep saying "of course context matters", and then turn right around and say "Here's a bunch of numbers without context what is PFF thinking??? REEEEEEEEEEEE!!!"
You (and others) have an impenetrable mental block on this that is made of solid steel.
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but the charts with the helmets and logos make it look cool.
If I had the time and finances I would create a site that shows PFF results AND puts their stats next to them so people can see how horrible PFF is at this stuff.
I know these advanced stats have value but IMO they are being overvalued to a point where fans sound stupid trying to defend them or use them to win arguments.
Guys with 1 tackle or 0TD passes being elevated for God knows what is just insaneStains 29
Steelers 37Comment
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Again, you just have a basic misunderstanding about how contextual analysis works. Can't help you.
BTW, Micah Parsons had better fantasy/counting stats than Myles and doesn't feel robbed.
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Just like beating your man at the line in 2.5s is better than sacks, pressures, tackles, tackles for loss, pass deflections, interceptions, and DTDs.
PFF: Garrett wins at the line more than TJ
Normal People: So that means he gets more sacks. I get it.
PFF: Well...sacks only make up a small number of plays, so you can't just look at sacks. Good thing too, because TJ has way more of those.
Normal people: So Garret gets more hurries, OK that makes sense. He's disrupting the play more, but doesn't get the tackle. I get it.
PFF: Well...hurries also only make up a small number of plays, so you can't just look at hurries either.
Normal people: I see. TJ has way more of those too. Can I use (sacks+hurries)?
PFF: What are you, a Neanderthal? If we add those up, the difference is even bigger than if we just look at sacks. And we already knew that Garret was better before we started looking at the stats so that doesn't make sense.
Normal people: I get it. But at least you must see that if Garrett is harder to block, he gets more tackles. Right?
PFF: Not even close. Not total tackles. Not solo tackles. Not assists. TJ's got about 50% more of all of those things than Garret.
Normal people: I get it. Garret is more impactful with fewer tackles because he has more tackles for loss...and more force fumbles, right?
PFF: Well...forced fumbles is the one thing where he equaled what TJ did. But TJ had more TFLs.
Normal person: I see...well Garret probably drops back into pass coverage more than TJ. That's probably why TJ has more impact behind the line of scrimmage, right?
PFF: Well actually...it's kind of the opposite of that.
Normal person: Oh...ya. I see here that TJ had more passes deflected and more interceptions. More fumble recoveries too?
PFF: Well fumble recoveries are really just other people doing the work. You see, the guy who recovers the fumble is often not the guy who makes the play. They just get a lucky bounce toward them.
Normal person: But didn't TJ make more plays than Garret too?
PFF: Well...um...Garret did have the same number of forced fumbles as TJ.
Normal person: I bet Garret probably scored a couple of DTDs. Those kind of plays are super-impactful. I read somewhere that you win more than 90% of the time your defense scores.
PFF: No single play is more important than any other single play.
Normal person: Isn't that the opposite of what every NFL coach and player says? That more games are usually decided by a few big plays? I always thought that's why turnover ratio is so good at predicting who wins? And that (turnovers + explosive plays) is even better at predicting wins? Those single plays have an outsized impact on who wins the game, right?
PFF: Nope. Every play counts the same. And knowing a player's pass rush win rate will let you predict who will get more impact plays (like sacks) over large sample sizes. Have you never taken a stats class?
Normal person: So...TJ beat Garret is sacks this year by about 36%. It wasn't even close even though you say that Garret dominated him in pass rush win rate? Doesn't that kind of suggest that the model you have doesn't really work. At least in this particular edge case? How big a sample size do you need? I think you said before that Garret has consistently had a win rate of something like 20% bigger than TJ. So Garret must have more sacks (or some other impact metric) more than TJ over their careers, right? That must be a big enough sample size?
PFF: Well...not exactly. Sample size is too small. They've only played something like 5,500 defensive snaps each.
Normal person: Um...TJ's 29 and Garret is 28. How much longer do you think they're going to play at this level?
PFF: Probably not that long. Most elite athletes begin declining at 30.
Normal People: So, you don't think there's ever going to be a large enough sample for your model to accurately predict who will get more sacks between these two guys?
PFF: You just can't expect anyone to get as much production as TJ Watt. He's such a "try hard" with a "high motor". Other players just can't seem to make plays at the rate that TJ does.
Normal People: Isn't that kind of the definition of what a DMVP should be?
PFF: Sorry, what? Actual impact plays don't matter. What matters is the potential to make impact plays. That's what makes players great.
Normal people:
Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 02-09-2024, 01:48 PM.Comment
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I guess my big problem with pass rush win rate as a stat is that it's kind of like separation for WRs.
It's important.
But you still have to catch the ball.
Limas Sweed was very good at getting separation. But that only gave him the potential to make plays. He had to get open AND make the catch to make an impact on the game. And he could rarely do both on the same play.
Garret has shown that he's consistently better at generating the potential to make plays (as defined by PFF). But TJ has shown that he's consistently better at making plays.
I'll take the guy who makes plays more every time (assuming similar cap hits).Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 02-09-2024, 01:49 PM.Comment
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Turnover worthy?
You are sooo funny Windy.
You have two agendas that are diametrically opposed dude.
You LITERALLY RAGE against Tomlin because you accuse him of being too safe. You are essentially CALLING FOR more turnover worthy plays in pursuit of more scoring (which is the right thing to do).
Why are you not CONVINCED in Kenny as being an elite QB? Per pff he WAS elite during the last 7 games of his rookie season.
He has had elite play at times during
this season. His zero TD game versus the Ravens last season and his 1 TD game versus the Bengals this season were better than ANY GAME of Ben since 2015 (the part of Ben?s career when he was setting franchise records).
As we talked about before, he had another game where he was better per pff than one of Bens 5 TD in 2018.
That makes 3 games where pff has Kenny with a higher score than that ONE Ben game. Ben had more touchdowns in that one game than Kenny had in ALL THREE OF HIS BETTER GAMES COMBINED. Why?
Maybe on the way to 5 touchdowns Ben had a turnover worthy play?
But you DONT SCORE LOTS OF POINTS BY BEING TOO RISK AVERSE. You KNOW THIS because you SAY THIS.
Problem is Kenny has not PROVEN he can make risky throws without being a turnover machine.
THIS IS WHY pff metrics that show him as an elite QB are wrong.
Dude, pff punishes turnover worthy plays so harshly YOU SHOULD LOVE our passing game with Kenny.
If you blame Tomlin for playing it safe you SHOULD REJOICE.
Replacing Kenny with Justin Fields should be a laughably bad idea.
We HAVE a QB who has PROVEN he can be an elite player in this league.
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In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:
TCFCLTC-
The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than CowherComment
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In-season, I think win-rate could be seen as more important.
Because in-season, you are still thinking about projecting what the player might do in the games you haven't played yet.
But I don't think this award is about predicting who might be the best next year.
It's about who did the best this year.
And if that's the question you have you look at the actual stats that impact games.
Then if it's close, I could see something like win% making a difference is breaking a tie. The argument that "they were similar in tangible impact, but player A was close to making plays more".
But it's not close in this case. TJ dominated the stat sheet. In basically every category. The only category where he didn't lead was FFs where it was tied.
This isn't a "tie goes to the win%" situation. This is a "TJ Watt is almost superhuman" situation.Comment
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Dang you KILLED IT here man. Spot on. Simple logic at its finest.Just like beating your man at the line in 2.5s is better than sacks, pressures, tackles, tackles for loss, pass deflections, interceptions, and DTDs.
PFF: Garrett wins at the line more than TJ
Normal People: So that means he gets more sacks. I get it.
PFF: Well...sacks only make up a small number of plays, so you can't just look at sacks. Good thing too, because TJ has way more of those.
Normal people: So Garret gets more hurries, OK that makes sense. He's disrupting the play more, but doesn't get the tackle. I get it.
PFF: Well...hurries also only make up a small number of plays, so you can't just look at hurries either.
Normal people: I see. TJ has way more of those too. Can I use (sacks+hurries)?
PFF: What are you, a Neanderthal? If we add those up, the difference is even bigger than if we just look at sacks. And we already knew that Garret was better before we started looking at the stats so that doesn't make sense.
Normal people: I get it. But at least you must see that if Garrett is harder to block, he gets more tackles. Right?
PFF: Not even close. Not total tackles. Not solo tackles. Not assists. TJ's got about 50% more of all of those things than Garret.
Normal people: I get it. Garret is more impactful with fewer tackles because he has more tackles for loss...and more force fumbles, right?
PFF: Well...forced fumbles is the one thing where he equaled what TJ did. But TJ had more TFLs.
Normal person: I see...well Garret probably drops back into pass coverage more than TJ. That's probably why TJ has more impact behind the line of scrimmage, right?
PFF: Well actually...it's kind of the opposite of that.
Normal person: Oh...ya. I see here that TJ had more passes deflected and more interceptions. More fumble recoveries too?
PFF: Well fumble recoveries are really just other people doing the work. You see, the guy who recovers the fumble is often not the guy who makes the play. They just get a lucky bounce toward them.
Normal person: But didn't TJ make more plays than Garret too?
PFF: Well...um...Garret did have the same number of forced fumbles as TJ.
Normal person: I bet Garret probably scored a couple of DTDs. Those kind of plays are super-impactful. I read somewhere that you win more than 90% of the time your defense scores.
PFF: No single play is more important than any other single play.
Normal person: Isn't that the opposite of what every NFL coach and player says? That more games are usually decided by a few big plays? I always thought that's why turnover ratio is so good at predicting who wins? And that (turnovers + explosive plays) is even better at predicting wins? Those single plays have an outsized impact on who wins the game, right?
PFF: Nope. Every play counts the same. And knowing a player's pass rush win rate will let you predict who will get more impact plays (like sacks) over large sample sizes. Have you never taken a stats class?
Normal person: So...TJ beat Garret is sacks this year by about 36%. It wasn't even close even though you say that Garret dominated him in pass rush win rate? Doesn't that kind of suggest that the model you have doesn't really work. At least in this particular edge case? How big a sample size do you need? I think you said before that Garret has consistently had a win rate of something like 20% bigger than TJ. So Garret must have more sacks (or some other impact metric) more than TJ over their careers, right? That must be a big enough sample size?
PFF: Well...not exactly. Sample size is too small. They've only played something like 5,500 defensive snaps each.
Normal person: Um...TJ's 29 and Garret is 28. How much longer do you think they're going to play at this level?
PFF: Probably not that long. Most elite athletes begin declining at 30.
Normal People: So, you don't think there's ever going to be a large enough sample for your model to accurately predict who will get more sacks between these two guys?
PFF: You just can't expect anyone to get as much production as TJ Watt. He's such a "try hard" with a "high motor". Other players just can't seem to make plays at the rate that TJ does.
Normal People: Isn't that kind of the definition of what a DMVP should be?
PFF: Sorry, what? Actual impact plays don't matter. What matters is the potential to make impact plays. That's what makes players great.
Normal people:
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In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:
TCFCLTC-
The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than CowherComment
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Of course not. If you go by stats he STILL does not win it. TJ does.
Talk to me when he has the BEST stats and doesn’t win it and he doesn’t complain.
If he dominates the stat line next season like TJ did he ABSOLUTELY wins it next season. Even if Garrett wins pff. How do I know? Happened to TJ when HE won it. It was his turn.
If it is close, Micah wins next season. It will be his turn.sigpic
In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:
TCFCLTC-
The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than CowherComment
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