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Welcome to the offseason, hosted by your resident GM (and best RB scout on the board). 
Seriously, I started this the day after the playoff loss, but didn't post anything because people were emotional. Then the team hired Arthur Smith and *I* got emotional
Now I'm ready. So, here's 2023 in review:
Here we are. Earlier than we'd like, but right on schedule. Some of you may recall, I've called this a three year rebuild; year two target was to MAKE the playoffs.
The Offense
To be honest, it was such a roller coaster season. I'm watching Matt Canada call predictable plays. "Oh, Najee is in? 75% chance, he's running. And if he runs, it's between the tackles". And you'd see the defense adjust accordingly and stuff the box. "Oh, Warren is in? We can call anything". The defense backs away and plays more balanced.
Then, MANY folks here (not understanding what they were seeing unfold on the screen) where saying the line wasn't good, Najee wasn't good and it's all just excuses.
Honestly y'all, I'm a lucky guy. I can sit and have more intelligent football conversations with my wife during the game than I can with a lot of folks around these parts. She'd literally say, "Najee's in. It's first down. Look at how many people are close to the LOS".... then, later she'd say, "why are they so loose when Warren's in?" I answered and now she notices that, too. (I played and coached, so she knows I know)
Anyway, not only was the play calling predictable, but I'm soooo glad to finally be away from the nearly 2 seasons he was making it difficult for KP to grow as a quarterback.
When Canada was fired and KP IMMEDIATELY ended the talk of the non-400 yard offensive game. I was stoked to see that the kid might finally be able to develop at the pro level. Unfortunately, we only got one full game of that before his injury. It's disappointing that he has had a high school playbook while facing pros. People will criticize his development arc, but he deserves at least ONE season under an NFL OC before we make judgements. And this team got one that turned Tannehill into a pro bowler - then Tannehill immediately regressed after Smith left.
Position snippets (offense)
QB - Mitch sucks. Pickett - it's hard to get to the end of year 2 and feel like ya don't know, but here I am. Mason was "solid" in relief effort.
RB - Steelers had one of two backfields with 2 guys with over 1000 yards from scrimmage (along with Detroit). Enjoy it gang. Is this our most dynamic duo since Harris-Bleier?
WR - Lots of talent. Lots of Divas. But, DJ and Pickens may be among the NFL's best tandems. I wanna see Austin get the ball more.
TE - Muth is a B+ TE in this league. Heyward is a nice Swiss army knife. Washington, I wanna see more from him
O-Line - Broderick was a good selection. The guards are good. Cole and Moore leave a bit to be desired.
The Defense
I have said a number of times that Tomlin KNOWS the he has a really good defense. There where times where he criticized them when they created a turnover because they didn't get it in the right part of the field. "Coach, we stopped them from scoring. Isn't that our job?" To me that says that he understood how bad the offense was but didn't want to publicly throw Canada under the bus. But, I digress.... we're talking Defense.
When healthy, this is among the best defenses in the league. But, injuries really hurt this year. To the point where other guys had to back off their normal roles to help with basic stuff (Minkah, I saw ya closer to the LOS). OLB had incredible depth, but the rest of the units will either need players to step up or move on.
Position snippets (defense)
DL - Cam's long in the tooth, but still a stud when healthy. Benton will be really good. Larry O - has moments. I need one of Leal/Loudermilk to step up
ILB - I was excited when this season started. And injuries just killed them. Top 3 were the best bunch since Vince Williams walked out
OLB - TJ is TJ. Highsmith was good, but a notch down. Herbig may become a nice #3. Golden was "solid".
CB - JPJ's a stud. Peterson's a dud. Levi, "meh". Disappointed that Trice was injured. Early reports had him coming along faster than JPJ
S - Minkah's injury hurt. I don't mind Kazee laying the lumber. Riley and T.Thompson each had some nice moments. I started this season expecting to want a SS early. I can't say that i do now
As a side note, I actually wanted to grade all the positions, both offensive and defensive. But, how do you grade the ILB, for example? The starters are probably a B+, but what we finished with may have been more like a D+.
Summary: Given Matt Canada, Tribusky and all the key injuries, this was an impressive season, IMO. Honestly, you lose TJ a couple of times, Minkah a few games, Cam a few games, for a stretch the top 3 ILB (still 2 out), top SS, Pat Pete was a bust. To get into a Wildcard game and still be in it during the 4th quarter against the Bills speaks volumes. There are certainly spots that need improvement/depth, but all-in all I honestly wouldn't have been shocked by 6-11. IMO, 10-7 is an over-perform given the circumstances.
There are certainly holes that were exposed. I expect the team to target them with better precision, because there are fewer of significance than Colbert left. You could go get an OT to replace Moore, but also know that if you're stuck with him for one more season, you can compete.
The more time I have had to to think about the Arthur Smith hire, I like it. A LOT. If one of the young guys came in and KP threw for 4000 yards, he'd be interviewing for head coach next season AND we might be looking again sooner rather than later. I see Smith being around at least 2-3 before he's back in those conversations.
Moreover, given the personnel, he IS a good fit.... Think Detroit and their running game. Or the Derrick Henry-led Titans.
Next post: how I would address each unit (no draft yet)
Seriously, I started this the day after the playoff loss, but didn't post anything because people were emotional. Then the team hired Arthur Smith and *I* got emotional
Now I'm ready. So, here's 2023 in review:
Here we are. Earlier than we'd like, but right on schedule. Some of you may recall, I've called this a three year rebuild; year two target was to MAKE the playoffs.
The Offense
To be honest, it was such a roller coaster season. I'm watching Matt Canada call predictable plays. "Oh, Najee is in? 75% chance, he's running. And if he runs, it's between the tackles". And you'd see the defense adjust accordingly and stuff the box. "Oh, Warren is in? We can call anything". The defense backs away and plays more balanced.
Then, MANY folks here (not understanding what they were seeing unfold on the screen) where saying the line wasn't good, Najee wasn't good and it's all just excuses.
Honestly y'all, I'm a lucky guy. I can sit and have more intelligent football conversations with my wife during the game than I can with a lot of folks around these parts. She'd literally say, "Najee's in. It's first down. Look at how many people are close to the LOS".... then, later she'd say, "why are they so loose when Warren's in?" I answered and now she notices that, too. (I played and coached, so she knows I know)
Anyway, not only was the play calling predictable, but I'm soooo glad to finally be away from the nearly 2 seasons he was making it difficult for KP to grow as a quarterback.
When Canada was fired and KP IMMEDIATELY ended the talk of the non-400 yard offensive game. I was stoked to see that the kid might finally be able to develop at the pro level. Unfortunately, we only got one full game of that before his injury. It's disappointing that he has had a high school playbook while facing pros. People will criticize his development arc, but he deserves at least ONE season under an NFL OC before we make judgements. And this team got one that turned Tannehill into a pro bowler - then Tannehill immediately regressed after Smith left.
Position snippets (offense)
QB - Mitch sucks. Pickett - it's hard to get to the end of year 2 and feel like ya don't know, but here I am. Mason was "solid" in relief effort.
RB - Steelers had one of two backfields with 2 guys with over 1000 yards from scrimmage (along with Detroit). Enjoy it gang. Is this our most dynamic duo since Harris-Bleier?
WR - Lots of talent. Lots of Divas. But, DJ and Pickens may be among the NFL's best tandems. I wanna see Austin get the ball more.
TE - Muth is a B+ TE in this league. Heyward is a nice Swiss army knife. Washington, I wanna see more from him
O-Line - Broderick was a good selection. The guards are good. Cole and Moore leave a bit to be desired.
The Defense
I have said a number of times that Tomlin KNOWS the he has a really good defense. There where times where he criticized them when they created a turnover because they didn't get it in the right part of the field. "Coach, we stopped them from scoring. Isn't that our job?" To me that says that he understood how bad the offense was but didn't want to publicly throw Canada under the bus. But, I digress.... we're talking Defense.
When healthy, this is among the best defenses in the league. But, injuries really hurt this year. To the point where other guys had to back off their normal roles to help with basic stuff (Minkah, I saw ya closer to the LOS). OLB had incredible depth, but the rest of the units will either need players to step up or move on.
Position snippets (defense)
DL - Cam's long in the tooth, but still a stud when healthy. Benton will be really good. Larry O - has moments. I need one of Leal/Loudermilk to step up
ILB - I was excited when this season started. And injuries just killed them. Top 3 were the best bunch since Vince Williams walked out
OLB - TJ is TJ. Highsmith was good, but a notch down. Herbig may become a nice #3. Golden was "solid".
CB - JPJ's a stud. Peterson's a dud. Levi, "meh". Disappointed that Trice was injured. Early reports had him coming along faster than JPJ
S - Minkah's injury hurt. I don't mind Kazee laying the lumber. Riley and T.Thompson each had some nice moments. I started this season expecting to want a SS early. I can't say that i do now
As a side note, I actually wanted to grade all the positions, both offensive and defensive. But, how do you grade the ILB, for example? The starters are probably a B+, but what we finished with may have been more like a D+.
Summary: Given Matt Canada, Tribusky and all the key injuries, this was an impressive season, IMO. Honestly, you lose TJ a couple of times, Minkah a few games, Cam a few games, for a stretch the top 3 ILB (still 2 out), top SS, Pat Pete was a bust. To get into a Wildcard game and still be in it during the 4th quarter against the Bills speaks volumes. There are certainly spots that need improvement/depth, but all-in all I honestly wouldn't have been shocked by 6-11. IMO, 10-7 is an over-perform given the circumstances.
There are certainly holes that were exposed. I expect the team to target them with better precision, because there are fewer of significance than Colbert left. You could go get an OT to replace Moore, but also know that if you're stuck with him for one more season, you can compete.
The more time I have had to to think about the Arthur Smith hire, I like it. A LOT. If one of the young guys came in and KP threw for 4000 yards, he'd be interviewing for head coach next season AND we might be looking again sooner rather than later. I see Smith being around at least 2-3 before he's back in those conversations.
Moreover, given the personnel, he IS a good fit.... Think Detroit and their running game. Or the Derrick Henry-led Titans.
Next post: how I would address each unit (no draft yet)
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