KP maybe not as bad as is thought?

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  • Northern_Blitz
    Legend
    • Dec 2008
    • 23535

    #16
    Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
    The stats are counting stats, which aren't factored into PFF's score. If Kenny throws deep passes that are dropped, he doesn't get punished by PFF like he does by passer rating. If DJ gets tackled at the 1 and then Najee runs the ball in, KP's passer rating suffers.
    But why put them up there? They are the ones choosing to put those 5 stats there. Presumably because they somehow inform their rankings. But in KP's case, the data don't support the rankings (which makes it an interesting case to discuss IMO).

    Although this is only for deep throws, and he did do well there (in limited attempts). I wonder if this is more Pickett or Pickens (who also thrives on the deep passes). Just like I wonder (and I'm sure you've argued) that his struggles with intermediate throws have been due to WRs in part (there was a WR evaluation of Pickett that specifically said he was great deep, but bad intermediate and over the middle).

    Either way, the counting stats are the ones PFF choses to put in there. Maybe it's more clear to those that pay for the site, but I think they should have used their 3 sentences to explain why he's average to well below average in all the stats they chose to post, but they rank him 6th in the league (which seems fairly high IMO).

    Cases like this are when models become interesting IMO.

    But with the info they have here, it's very hard to just believe their subjective evaluation process when it seems to conflict very with the objective stats they post.

    Do they have a similar analysis of players for other air yard distances? My guess is that KP will do fairly well short and long. But be quite poor in intermediate. At least that's been what many of us have been saying since the Steelers were last playing football games.

    Again...I really hope PFF and all the KP boosters on here are 100% right (and are even underestimating how good he'll be).
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 06-06-2023, 09:39 AM.

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    • Northern_Blitz
      Legend
      • Dec 2008
      • 23535

      #17


      Some discussion about this here.

      Comment

      • NorthCoast
        Legend
        • Sep 2008
        • 25610

        #18
        Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
        How do you think Mahomes should have graded for his two walking TD passes at the goal line in the Super Bowl?

        Stunning how people can't understand contextual grading vs. FFL counting stat grading.
        Article has some messed up stuff.

        Example:

        Tua ranked 4th; his "Deep Completion %" = 24.5% which they say was 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, KP had 38.3% deep completion rate and was ranked 30th!?

        Comment

        • NorthCoast
          Legend
          • Sep 2008
          • 25610

          #19
          Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
          But why put them up there? They are the ones choosing to put those 5 stats there. Presumably because they somehow inform their rankings. But in KP's case, the data don't support the rankings (which makes it an interesting case to discuss IMO).

          Although this is only for deep throws, and he did do well there (in limited attempts). I wonder if this is more Pickett or Pickens (who also thrives on the deep passes). Just like I wonder (and I'm sure you've argued) that his struggles with intermediate throws have been due to WRs in part (there was a WR evaluation of Pickett that specifically said he was great deep, but bad intermediate and over the middle).

          Either way, the counting stats are the ones PFF choses to put in there. Maybe it's more clear to those that pay for the site, but I think they should have used their 3 sentences to explain why he's average to well below average in all the stats they chose to post, but they rank him 6th in the league (which seems fairly high IMO).

          Cases like this are when models become interesting IMO.

          But with the info they have here, it's very hard to just believe their subjective evaluation process when it seems to conflict very with the objective stats they post.

          Do they have a similar analysis of players for other air yard distances? My guess is that KP will do fairly well short and long. But be quite poor in intermediate. At least that's been what many of us have been saying since the Steelers were last playing football games.

          Again...I really hope PFF and all the KP boosters on here are 100% right (and are even underestimating how good he'll be).
          Using PFF's own numbers for deep balls and their 65.1 passer rating means that KP was charged with 4 INTs in addition to the 4 TDs.

          Comment

          • Northern_Blitz
            Legend
            • Dec 2008
            • 23535

            #20
            Originally posted by NorthCoast
            Using PFF's own numbers for deep balls and their 65.1 passer rating means that KP was charged with 4 INTs in addition to the 4 TDs.
            And who knows...maybe it makes sense.

            But there isn't any real discussion about why they rank him so high despite at least some results looking average (at best).

            Maybe there's also some projecting going into the numbers? Like what they think is going to happen next season?

            Comment

            • feltdizz
              Legend
              • May 2008
              • 26991

              #21
              I’ll argue a lot of things but never PFF stats.
              Steelers 27
              Rats 16

              Comment

              • WindyCitySteel
                Legend
                • Nov 2011
                • 15041

                #22
                Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                And who knows...maybe it makes sense.

                But there isn't any real discussion about why they rank him so high despite at least some results looking average (at best).

                Maybe there's also some projecting going into the numbers? Like what they think is going to happen next season?
                The key word above is "results". Kenny isn't 100% responsible for the results of a play, play-caller and OL and receiver also play a part.

                There's a reason the Raiders didn't add the sea of hands or holy roller plays to their playbooks, or the Steelers and the Immaculate Reception, and use them every game, even though the "results" of those plays were successful.

                Comment

                • WindyCitySteel
                  Legend
                  • Nov 2011
                  • 15041

                  #23
                  Originally posted by crushedspirit
                  Nobody can defend how PFF arrives at those numbers posted, and there numerous other examples.
                  Of course they can be defended, you're only focussed on outcomes, not process. Purdy threw a 5-yard pass behind Deebo vs. Seattle, Deebo made a nice snag, a 360, and ran 65 yards for a TD through traffic.

                  Was that a great play by Purdy because his passer rating on it was great?

                  Comment

                  • WindyCitySteel
                    Legend
                    • Nov 2011
                    • 15041

                    #24
                    Originally posted by NorthCoast
                    Article has some messed up stuff.

                    Example:

                    Tua ranked 4th; his "Deep Completion %" = 24.5% which they say was 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, KP had 38.3% deep completion rate and was ranked 30th!?
                    Guessing there's a typo there, but assuming Tua really is 2nd why isn't he higher on the list? Maybe because he rag-armed a bunch of throws that the two best deep receivers in football were still able to track and come down with?

                    That's why context matters. Put Tua on another team and his counting stats on deep balls likely go down.

                    Comment

                    • LPMAN
                      Pro Bowler
                      • Sep 2021
                      • 1800

                      #25
                      Maybe it's true some fans are not giving KP time to succeeed in our system before judging him too harshly but the same can be said for Mitch Trubisky. Felt like fans wanted him benched immediately just because KP was a first round pick & Mitch never brought the Bears to the Super Bowl. Then after being unfare to Mitch they ask why everyone is being unfair & hating on KP. Pot see black kettle.

                      Comment

                      • NorthCoast
                        Legend
                        • Sep 2008
                        • 25610

                        #26
                        Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
                        Guessing there's a typo there, but assuming Tua really is 2nd why isn't he higher on the list? Maybe because he rag-armed a bunch of throws that the two best deep receivers in football were still able to track and come down with?

                        That's why context matters. Put Tua on another team and his counting stats on deep balls likely go down.
                        Another little fun fact based on their deep passer ratings; KP, Cousins, and Dalton were the only QBs in their top 10 that had a lower deep passer rating than their overall season passer rating.

                        Comment

                        • crushedspirit
                          Pro Bowler
                          • Feb 2021
                          • 2178

                          #27
                          Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
                          Of course they can be defended, you're only focussed on outcomes, not process. Purdy threw a 5-yard pass behind Deebo vs. Seattle, Deebo made a nice snag, a 360, and ran 65 yards for a TD through traffic.

                          Was that a great play by Purdy because his passer rating on it was great?
                          I'm not talking one play at all.

                          Again,

                          30-39-360-5-0 earns a 75.1 PFF pass rating
                          15-27-168-1-0 earns a 90.9 PFF pass rating

                          You just defending for the sake of it? That's indefensible.

                          Comment

                          • NorthCoast
                            Legend
                            • Sep 2008
                            • 25610

                            #28
                            Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
                            I mean, I'm old enough to remember when Steeler fans were excited about Trubisky because of a fluky 2018 season that saw his counting stats soar while his PFF grade was bottom 3.

                            PFF was spot on about Trubisky.
                            By this logic was PFF also right when they ranked Josh Allen 32nd entering his sophomore season?

                            Comment

                            • BURGH86STEEL
                              Legend
                              • May 2008
                              • 6908

                              #29
                              It takes time to reach a definitive conclusion about rookies.

                              I don't expect KP to reach his potential in his 2nd season. The Steelers should be good enough as a team to compete for the division title in KPs 2nd season (baring key/multiple injuries).

                              Comment

                              • WindyCitySteel
                                Legend
                                • Nov 2011
                                • 15041

                                #30
                                Originally posted by LPMAN
                                Maybe it's true some fans are not giving KP time to succeeed in our system before judging him too harshly but the same can be said for Mitch Trubisky. Felt like fans wanted him benched immediately just because KP was a first round pick & Mitch never brought the Bears to the Super Bowl. Then after being unfare to Mitch they ask why everyone is being unfair & hating on KP. Pot see black kettle.
                                Mitch was a six year vet who got all the first team reps in the offseason.

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