"Scouting....is the Easy Part"

[NorthCoast]

A look at success rate of draft by round. In this case 'success' is defined as a second contract. I was actually shocked by the fact that 50% of 1st round picks sign with another team. Notice also that 20% of 1st round picks don't get a second contract!

There is also another study that says only about 8% of draft picks end up being 'better than replacement value'. So out of ~250 picks each year on average there are maybe two dozen players that play better than a replacement player, i.e. less than one per team.



Why is Drafting Players so Difficult?
Drafting players is difficult at least in part because the scouting and evaluating part is the easy part. The more difficult part is developing the players that you drafted. How well players respond to coaching, and to a league where a player’s physical gifts are no longer a major advantage, are part of the factors that are difficult to assess pre-draft. How much work and discipline a player will exhibit after being handed millions can be an issue too.

Player development may also be affected by coaching ability, team culture, and fit in the particular scheme.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Drafting players is difficult at least in part because the scouting and evaluating part is the easy part. The more difficult part is developing the players that you drafted. How well players respond to coaching, and to a league where a player’s physical gifts are no longer a major advantage, are part of the factors that are difficult to assess pre-draft. How much work and discipline a player will exhibit after being handed millions can be an issue too.

Player development may also be affected by coaching ability, team culture, and fit in the particular scheme.

It.s both drafting talented players and development. Last year was a good draft, the 3 years before not so much. Out side of TJ Watt with players that were drafted 3rd to 10 year player by the Steelers do you think are good? There is the problem.

[feltdizz]

Fans tend to focus on the players other teams hit on and ignore all their misses. I’m sure our drafts are good overall but every miss seems obvious.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I'd be curious about a couple of things:
1. How are the steelers relative to the rest of the league?
2. How do large contracts impact the ability to re-sign players?

I feel like because they have had some inconsistency with 1st rounders, they've let some of the Jarvis Jones/Artie Burns/Devin Bush/Terrell Edmunds go search for greener pastures...
Looking back at the last decade of first rounders, it's a sad state. TJ & Shazier may have been the only ones *worth* keeping - and Bud had Highsmith right there, so it was a smart move to let him go.

Prior to "10-years ago", ya had a nice string of DeCastro, Heyward, Pouncey for 3 solid years. We need to see more of that in upcoming drafts

[Northern_Blitz]

A look at success rate of draft by round. In this case 'success' is defined as a second contract. I was actually shocked by the fact that 50% of 1st round picks sign with another team. Notice also that 20% of 1st round picks don't get a second contract!

There is also another study that says only about 8% of draft picks end up being 'better than replacement value'. So out of ~250 picks each year on average there are maybe two dozen players that play better than a replacement player, i.e. less than one per team.



Why is Drafting Players so Difficult?
Drafting players is difficult at least in part because the scouting and evaluating part is the easy part. The more difficult part is developing the players that you drafted. How well players respond to coaching, and to a league where a player’s physical gifts are no longer a major advantage, are part of the factors that are difficult to assess pre-draft. How much work and discipline a player will exhibit after being handed millions can be an issue too.

Player development may also be affected by coaching ability, team culture, and fit in the particular scheme.

I think this idea could be tested by looking at how well players do after they change teams.

My guess is that most don't tend to improve with "new scenery".

If that's true, I think "scouting" is the "hard part".

But I don't know because I didn't check to see if it's true or not.

It does seem like most Steelers that leave for other teams tend not to do well. But there are some (like Hargrave). And for him it was more of a cap hit distribution issue since we were already paying Cam and Tuitt.

[flippy]

Sounds like that’s written by someone that never had to coach.

Most players that are going to be successful are going to be successful because of their god given talent, work ethics, smarts, etc.

Why do scouts pass over some many guys that are good and draft others that aren’t? Seems like they should have some accountability in the equation.

[whatever]

Fans tend to focus on the players other teams hit on and ignore all their misses. I’m sure our drafts are good overall but every miss seems obvious.

How can you say that?
You were defending Tomlin last season by saying we didn’t have any talent.

[feltdizz]

How can you say that?
You were defending Tomlin last season by saying we didn’t have any talent.

Lies.. please link to the thread where I said we didn’t have ANY talent.

and notice I said link to the thread because some of you like to cut and paste words out of context.

[BURGH86STEEL]

Teams generally seem to have a large majority of roster turnover every 4 or 5 seasons. Injuries, free agency, busts, lack of cap space, new influx of talent, ect all contribute to roster turnover.

I don't know of a team that hit on every 1st round pick. I don't know of a team that would be able to afford to sign and keep every 1st round pick if they became stars.

[feltdizz]

Teams generally seem to have a large majority of roster turnover every 4 or 5 seasons. Injuries, free agency, busts, lack of cap space, new influx of talent, ect all contribute to roster turnover.

I don't know of a team that hit on every 1st round pick. I don't know of a team that would be able to afford to sign and keep every 1st round pick if they became stars.

This link is wild. Its a little dated but what makes it wild is all the bust the Jets gave had in the last 10 years. They miss on A LOT of first rounders. Probably worse than the Stains.

https://www.businessinsider.com/top-nfl-draft-busts-2017-10?amp

Pats just missed on NKeal Harry a few years back with their first pick. They are terrible at drafting WR’s.

I think all teams have these types of misses.

[whatever]

Lies.. please link to the thread where I said we didn’t have ANY talent.

and notice I said link to the thread because some of you like to cut and paste words out of context.

Here we go again.
Pot meet kettle.
Trying to back pedal again.
When was the last time you graded our draft a D or E?
When was the last time you said our draft sucked?
Being critical of a player or two each draft doesn’t constitute having hardly any talent.
And actually, you would have to make these claims every year for the last 4-5 years.
Did you do that?
I don’t remember you criticizing all of our FA signings either.
A D or and E grade by you would represent our team having some talent.

Why don’t you post a link to all those times you hated our picks and FAs?
You know, because people like to lie.