Spending In FA Does Not = Wins

[whisper]

Would you really be all that excited if we spent the most money in UFA and won a playoff game? Or would you complain that Tomlin wasted all that UFA money?

I know what my money would be on in that bet

Moving of the goal post from a TTTer. It was stated that spending money in FA did not equate to winning. I accurately cited the Jags who spent the most $ and DID win enough to win their div., AND win a playoff game (something Tomlin hasn't done in 6 years). The Jags hadn't been winning anything for years. They were the first pick in the draft for two straight years, if that tells you anything. So, then they spent some $ and low and behold won their div. and a playoff game. So then, here come the moving of the goalposts. Right on schedule.

Claim: spending $ in FA does not allow you to win.
Response: Jags spent the most, and did improve their winning significantly.
Counter-response: waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, not addressing the point.

[Captain Lemming]

How long will it take you to work through this most recent butthurt phrase of me criticizing your 100% CONSTANT negativity. Everyone has some degree of negative takes, you and a couple others are on 100% of the time.

That's the difference. You started a thread criticizing their draft day ball cap.

Don't dismiss the importance of the cap design my friend.

It is SO UGLY that if a player is to wear it, I fear he will go full "Elway" on us and hold out until we are forced to trade him to another team.

[whisper]

It's a nuanced thing. The Steelers have drafted not very well lately, as has been pointed out in other threads. They NEED to supplement in FA, but they choose the quantity over quality route, often taking bargains on reclamation projects (Jack, Shobert, Moncrief, Barron, Bostic, Green, etc.). I call it papering over holes instead of filling them.

Obviously you can't go out and buy every top FA, but instead of getting five average guys who will likely not stick long, why not sign one impact player for the same money?

This is the same conservative philosophy that shows up in game plans - they guard against what they perceive are "glaring holes", but end up with a roster full of mostly average players. That's led to 1 double digit win season in the last 5 with zero playoff success, and it's not trending up.

Basically, it feels like they're securing 8-9 wins a year and they're content with that.

Complain is the word, the word that I heard, it has groove it has meaning.

[Northern_Blitz]

Then what happened the last decade or so?

What I wrote in the post you quoted...

[Northern_Blitz]

Moving of the goal post from a TTTer. It was stated that spending money in FA did not equate to winning. I accurately cited the Jags who spent the most $ and DID win enough to win their div., AND win a playoff game (something Tomlin hasn't done in 6 years). The Jags hadn't been winning anything for years. They were the first pick in the draft for two straight years, if that tells you anything. So, then they spent some $ and low and behold won their div. and a playoff game. So then, here come the moving of the goalposts. Right on schedule.

Claim: spending $ in FA does not allow you to win.
Response: Jags spent the most, and did improve their winning significantly.
Counter-response: waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, not addressing the point.

Again...they had the same record we did.

[whisper]

Again...they had the same record we did.

And won their div. AND a playoff game. Did you forget about that part? When's the last time we won a payoff game? Oh, wait, 6 years ago.

[feltdizz]

Moving of the goal post from a TTTer. It was stated that spending money in FA did not equate to winning. I accurately cited the Jags who spent the most $ and DID win enough to win their div., AND win a playoff game (something Tomlin hasn't done in 6 years). The Jags hadn't been winning anything for years. They were the first pick in the draft for two straight years, if that tells you anything. So, then they spent some $ and low and behold won their div. and a playoff game. So then, here come the moving of the goalposts. Right on schedule.

Claim: spending $ in FA does not allow you to win.
Response: Jags spent the most, and did improve their winning significantly.
Counter-response: waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, not addressing the point.

Now imagine if we had the #1 pick 2 years in a row and went 9-8 and committed 5 turnovers in the first half before an epic comeback?

I seriously doubt you would credit the FO and head coach for that W.

the talk would be how we won in spite of.. and only won because the other team had a QB who made his first trip to the playoffs.

[Steel Maniac]

It's a nuanced thing. The Steelers have drafted not very well lately, as has been pointed out in other threads. They NEED to supplement in FA, but they choose the quantity over quality route, often taking bargains on reclamation projects (Jack, Shobert, Moncrief, Barron, Bostic, Green, etc.). I call it papering over holes instead of filling them.

Obviously you can't go out and buy every top FA, but instead of getting five average guys who will likely not stick long, why not sign one impact player for the same money?

This is the same conservative philosophy that shows up in game plans - they guard against what they perceive are "glaring holes", but end up with a roster full of mostly average players. That's led to 1 double digit win season in the last 5 with zero playoff success, and it's not trending up.

Basically, it feels like they're securing 8-9 wins a year and they're content with that.

yes. That's what it feels like.

[whisper]

yes. That's what it feels like.

Maybe hit 10 wins this year, proclaim another Tomlin victory, no losing season and all that, lose week 1 in playoffs, refuse to re-sign Canada, blame everything on him, then move on. Next year, same thing. Mission accomplished. Yinzers brag about no losing season, etc. Offense improves to about 20 PPG, lowest of all teams in the playoffs.

[NorthCoast]

And won their div. AND a playoff game. Did you forget about that part? When's the last time we won a payoff game? Oh, wait, 6 years ago.

And MIA spent the 2nd most and ended with the same record as the Steelers. And the Raiders spent the 3rd most and won 3 fewer games than the Steelers.

btw, if JAX and MIA were in the AFCN they would have missed the playoffs and would spent all that FA money for nothing.

[WindyCitySteel]

Complain is the word, the word that I heard, it has groove it has meaning.

Awwww, no more bingo bango banjo affirmation posts when I post something you agree with? Sad...

[hackjam]

My guess is that this is survivorship bias.

To understand if making big splashes in UFA is good, we'd want too look at all "big splashes" in UFA and see how all of those teams did.

My guess is that picking players is like picking stocks. A small number will work out fantastically well. But it's very hard (maybe impossible) to consistently pick which ones are the ones those are. And unfortunately, you can't sign an index of the top 20 UFAs to play on your team.

Another reasonable strategy is to just not play the game at the top of the market for guys who will come from different teams and different systems. At least I think that's a reasonable strategy.

Agree. In most cases, the top signings in FA are giving 90th percentile money to 75th-ish percentile players. Point being, there's an obvious value gap that's created simply because those players are available. It's what gets Tremaine Edmunds, who is a good player but not a superstar, comparable AAV to Fred Warner, Shaq Leonard, and Roquan Smith. I suppose that the art of roster building involves smoothing those value gaps over the entire 53 man and hopefully coming out ahead, but when you put yourself in a hole to start with, there are only so many places where you can build a value gap in the other direction. The rookie QB contract is the most obvious one but rookie contracts in general provide the vast majority of your opportunity to recover value.

It's effectively the same deal with moving up in the draft. Like if there's a guy you're really sure about, then yeah maybe go ahead with it. But even then there's a huge amount of risk. We saw it with the trade up for Devin Bush. Other teams see it when they sign the Bud Duprees of the world to huge deals.

[WindyCitySteel]

Moral of the story: Bad franchises who try to buy a championship will fail, but good teams/franchises can find the missing piece or two to put them over the top. The Steelers should act like the latter.

[Northern_Blitz]

And MIA spent the 2nd most and ended with the same record as the Steelers. And the Raiders spent the 3rd most and won 3 fewer games than the Steelers.

btw, if JAX and MIA were in the AFCN they would have missed the playoffs and would spent all that FA money for nothing.

Exactly, you need to look at the entire set. Not just the ones you like for your argument.

And even the one he picked isn't great because we had the same record they did.

[Northern_Blitz]

Agree. In most cases, the top signings in FA are giving 90th percentile money to 75th-ish percentile players. Point being, there's an obvious value gap that's created simply because those players are available. It's what gets Tremaine Edmunds, who is a good player but not a superstar, comparable AAV to Fred Warner, Shaq Leonard, and Roquan Smith. I suppose that the art of roster building involves smoothing those value gaps over the entire 53 man and hopefully coming out ahead, but when you put yourself in a hole to start with, there are only so many places where you can build a value gap in the other direction. The rookie QB contract is the most obvious one but rookie contracts in general provide the vast majority of your opportunity to recover value.

It's effectively the same deal with moving up in the draft. Like if there's a guy you're really sure about, then yeah maybe go ahead with it. But even then there's a huge amount of risk. We saw it with the trade up for Devin Bush. Other teams see it when they sign the Bud Duprees of the world to huge deals.

+1

It's either "hell ya!!!!" or "no". If you're spending a ton of cap room, or making a draft day trade on a "probably?", you're doing it wrong IMO.