Spending In FA Does Not = Wins

[Iron City Inc.]

Individual cases probably give questionable results. But averaging results over 32 teams and 4 seasons should be useful in trending.

And to those suggesting signing one premium FA player at the expense of lesser players I would say that teams in general fail at the weakest link. In this case, do you want to have to plug multiple holes caused by signing one premium player while the bargain basement guys at other positions are failing?

Well I'm guilty of the wanting the 1 stud player. In this case for me Orlando Brown would have been like getting another 1st rounder for us imho. And obviously fill an area of need. Brown in his prime with his talent was a rare f/a at such an important position. Didn't mean we couldn't get anyone else but I understand the value of others would be less because of less assets left.
Steelers went down the "multiple solid player road". I'm okay with that n the players we picked up.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think making a splash in free agency can make a huge difference, and there are a few cases just last season to show it. I'll just list those that made the playoffs;

Geno Smith was huge for the Seahawks, Reddick and AJ Brown to the Eagles, Za'Darius Smith to the Vikings, Kirk to the Jags, Tyreek to the Dolphins, Ward to SF. I'm sure there's more if I dig further, but the point is FA signings can lift teams to new heights. A team does need to draft well first and foremost.

My guess is that this is survivorship bias.

To understand if making big splashes in UFA is good, we'd want too look at all "big splashes" in UFA and see how all of those teams did.

My guess is that picking players is like picking stocks. A small number will work out fantastically well. But it's very hard (maybe impossible) to consistently pick which ones are the ones those are. And unfortunately, you can't sign an index of the top 20 UFAs to play on your team.

Another reasonable strategy is to just not play the game at the top of the market for guys who will come from different teams and different systems. At least I think that's a reasonable strategy.

[Northern_Blitz]

Yep, it's not black and white. Some of those teams in the mid-2010's could have used a bump to get over the top, but The Steeler Way, 'n'at.

But we were always up against the cap.

You can manipulate that a bit by pulling future cap space forward (or kicking cap hit down the road if you prefer). We were already doing that pretty heavily with Ben's contract, particularly after the big short-term extension.

If we went and signed a big name UFA on top of all that, we'd be doing some version of the Ram's strategy. Which probably does increase your probability of winning in a specific season, while shortening the window that you're competitive in. It's pretty clear that the Steelers run the team in a way to try to have a long window to be competitive.

[crushedspirit]

My guess is that this is survivorship bias.

To understand if making big splashes in UFA is good, we'd want too look at all "big splashes" in UFA and see how all of those teams did.

My guess is that picking players is like picking stocks. A small number will work out fantastically well. But it's very hard (maybe impossible) to consistently pick which ones are the ones those are. And unfortunately, you can't sign an index of the top 20 UFAs to play on your team.

Another reasonable strategy is to just not play the game at the top of the market for guys who will come from different teams and different systems. At least I think that's a reasonable strategy.

I think a good FA signing will make a bigger difference for a team on the cusp of being better than average over those already at the bottom looking to climb out of the cellar. Guys like Brissett and Adams were great FA signings but those teams were lacking more than just a piece or two to get to the next level.

[whisper]

Tell that to Jax who spent the most and ended up not only IN the playoffs, but won a game in the post season - something Pgh hasn't done in 6 years. Oopsie. Poopsie, have a sip of soupsie.

[whisper]

But we were always up against the cap.

You can manipulate that a bit by pulling future cap space forward (or kicking cap hit down the road if you prefer). We were already doing that pretty heavily with Ben's contract, particularly after the big short-term extension.

If we went and signed a big name UFA on top of all that, we'd be doing some version of the Ram's strategy. Which probably does increase your probability of winning in a specific season, while shortening the window that you're competitive in. It's pretty clear that the Steelers run the team in a way to try to have a long window to be competitive.

Then what happened the last decade or so?

[whisper]

It's a nuanced thing. The Steelers have drafted not very well lately, as has been pointed out in other threads. They NEED to supplement in FA, but they choose the quantity over quality route, often taking bargains on reclamation projects (Jack, Shobert, Moncrief, Barron, Bostic, Green, etc.). I call it papering over holes instead of filling them.

Obviously you can't go out and buy every top FA, but instead of getting five average guys who will likely not stick long, why not sign one impact player for the same money?

This is the same conservative philosophy that shows up in game plans - they guard against what they perceive are "glaring holes", but end up with a roster full of mostly average players. That's led to 1 double digit win season in the last 5 with zero playoff success, and it's not trending up.

Basically, it feels like they're securing 8-9 wins a year and they're content with that.

Hand on the pump....Oh wait, why so negative?

[NorthCoast]

Tell that to Jax who spent the most and ended up not only IN the playoffs, but won a game in the post season - something Pgh hasn't done in 6 years. Oopsie. Poopsie, have a sip of soupsie.

It sure helps when you play in a sad sack division. Tannenhill with his 13 TDs, Ryan with his 14 TDs (and a player turned coach), and don't forget the awesome Mills with 17 TDs and 15 INTs...

[WindyCitySteel]

Hand on the pump....Oh wait, why so negative?

How long will it take you to work through this most recent butthurt phrase of me criticizing your 100% CONSTANT negativity. Everyone has some degree of negative takes, you and a couple others are on 100% of the time.

That's the difference. You started a thread criticizing their draft day ball cap.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think a good FA signing will make a bigger difference for a team on the cusp of being better than average over those already at the bottom looking to climb out of the cellar. Guys like Brissett and Adams were great FA signings but those teams were lacking more than just a piece or two to get to the next level.

I agree that making a big splash makes more sense when you're contending vs when you are rebuilding.

Especially if your window is already growing short.

These moves sacrifice the future. Which we shouldn't do at the beginning of a rebuild IMO.

That's why I liked last years UFA signings (younger guys near the top of the market for their positions) better than this years (older guys).

[Northern_Blitz]

Tell that to Jax who spent the most and ended up not only IN the playoffs, but won a game in the post season - something Pgh hasn't done in 6 years. Oopsie. Poopsie, have a sip of soupsie.

Would you really be all that excited if we spent the most money in UFA and won a playoff game? Or would you complain that Tomlin wasted all that UFA money?

I know what my money would be on in that bet

[feltdizz]

Would you really be all that excited if we spent the most money in UFA and won a playoff game? Or would you complain that Tomlin wasted all that UFA money?

I know what my money would be on in that bet

when we win a playoff game this year all these folks will do is complain about how long it took and why Tomlin should’ve done “whatever he did this year” to win a playoff game much earlier.

and you know they will pull up the injury list for the other team as the reason we got lucky.

[flippy]

when we win a playoff game this year all these folks will do is complain about how long it took and why Tomlin should’ve done “whatever he did this year” to win a playoff game much earlier.

and you know they will pull up the injury list for the other team as the reason we got lucky.

when we win the SuperBowl.

[whisper]

It sure helps when you play in a sad sack division. Tannenhill with his 13 TDs, Ryan with his 14 TDs (and a player turned coach), and don't forget the awesome Mills with 17 TDs and 15 INTs...

Blah, blah, blah, their div. was weak!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Isn't that what everyone said about the Steelers winning all those div. titles with losers Browns and Bengals in their div.? What was the difference? Oh, you don't want to talk about those years?

[Northern_Blitz]

Blah, blah, blah, their div. was weak!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Isn't that what everyone said about the Steelers winning all those div. titles with losers Browns and Bengals in their div.? What was the difference? Oh, you don't want to talk about those years?

You do know we had the same record as the Jags last season, right?