OT: New QB contracts

[WindyCitySteel]

Geno Smith - 3 years, $105M

Derek Carr - 4 years, $150M

That's a whole lot of money for average. If you don't have A Guy, start over, don't overvalue the position itself.

[NJ-STEELER]

Geno Smith - 3 years, $105M

Derek Carr - 4 years, $150M

That's a whole lot of money for average. If you don't have A Guy, start over, don't overvalue the position itself.

meh. It’s sort of been that way for a while. Despite those thinking ben was overpaid.

the higher the cap goes the more QBs are getting paid

[Northern_Blitz]

Geno Smith - 3 years, $105M

Derek Carr - 4 years, $150M

That's a whole lot of money for average. If you don't have A Guy, start over, don't overvalue the position itself.

This.

I think eventually the league has to learn that paying a guy like a top end QB doesn't make him a top end QB.

If KP isn't a top end guy, I hope we don't fall into this trap.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Post combine mock draft

NFL draft. Assuming the draft went like this, who do you select?

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2023/3/6/23626389/cowboys-draft-2023-full-7-round-mock-draft-after-nfl-combine


Round one. RB B. Robinson is the man as Thomas, and the other players I like are off the board. He brings the SPEED that is needed to the offense, the diversity of running inside and outside and big play ability. All of which are needed. Good vision and acceleration. The acceleration in the first ten yards was 2nd Best among the RB's in 10 yards . He is special.

Round 2. OT D Jones. The best pure power run blocker in the draft with huge hands and very long arms. He did not work out in the combine fully. In pass protection he is solid enough but as a run blocker he has pro bowl ability. Parried with Robison the steelers can run the ball!

Round two. ILB J Campbell. A big three down ILB who tackles well, can hit , is surpringly effective in coverage due to his smarts . A leader.

Round three. DT.NT Ika A hard to move player, he is outstanding vs the run and so-so vs the. pass russ. We need such a player for our weak run defense

Round Three *** trade ** we ship off N Harris to the highest bidder, say the Chicago Bears and WR C Tillman. Tillman has the traits to be a good #2 WR, and is on the board so I'm taking him. Hey its my mock draft!

Round four QB Stenson Bennett. Worked out well at the combine showing elite quickness , a good arm , good ball velocity ( ties with Levis ) and kicked tail in the SEC as a starting QB. He is tough too and I suspect will score high on the wonderlic. I think he will go higher than this.

Round Seven P M Turk. He has an amazing leg and gets good hang time.

Round 7 . Best remaining G on the board.

Free Agency DB's!

[crushedspirit]

At least the Seahawks and Saints have room to build around those average QBs. Guys like Murray and Watson have made their teams irrelevant, and Lamar will join them eventually.

QB contracts have become laughable, and will make many teams irrelevant going forward when they overpay for someone who thinks they're a star.

[Oviedo]

NFL draft. Assuming the draft went like this, who do you select?

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2023/3/6/23626389/cowboys-draft-2023-full-7-round-mock-draft-after-nfl-combine


Round one. RB B. Robinson is the man as Thomas, and the other players I like are off the board. He brings the SPEED that is needed to the offense, the diversity of running inside and outside and big play ability. All of which are needed. Good vision and acceleration. The acceleration in the first ten yards was 2nd Best among the RB's in 10 yards . He is special.

Round 2. OT D Jones. The best pure power run blocker in the draft with huge hands and very long arms. He did not work out in the combine fully. In pass protection he is solid enough but as a run blocker he has pro bowl ability. Parried with Robison the steelers can run the ball!

Round two. ILB J Campbell. A big three down ILB who tackles well, can hit , is surpringly effective in coverage due to his smarts . A leader.

Round three. DT.NT Ika A hard to move player, he is outstanding vs the run and so-so vs the. pass russ. We need such a player for our weak run defense

Round Three *** trade ** we ship off N Harris to the highest bidder, say the Chicago Bears and WR C Tillman. Tillman has the traits to be a good #2 WR, and is on the board so I'm taking him. Hey its my mock draft!

Round four QB Stenson Bennett. Worked out well at the combine showing elite quickness , a good arm , good ball velocity ( ties with Levis ) and kicked sstail in the SEC as a starting QB. He is tough too and I suspect will score high on the wonderlic. I think he will go higher than this.

Round Seven P M Turk. He has an amazing leg and gets good hang time.

Round 7 . Best remaining G on the board.

Free Agency DB's!

I understand the "man crush" you have on Robinson, but there is ZERO chance that we would consider a RB in the first three rounds given we have Harris...and ZERO chance we are trading Harris

I like your Round 2 but I think you will need to take Campbell before Jones. ILB is thin in this draft so Campbell will be in demand starting in Round 2

[Oviedo]

Lamar Jackson's price is just going up. Love the spot the Ravens are in and how they may get screwed

[feltdizz]

This.

I think eventually the league has to learn that paying a guy like a top end QB doesn't make him a top end QB.

If KP isn't a top end guy, I hope we don't fall into this trap.

This is the market. That isn’t “a lot” of money for average QB’s when you look at what the top QB’s make.

if Kenny isn’t a “top end guy” and gets $38M/$40M per that will probably be the market because top end guys will be getting $60M per in 3 years.

[feltdizz]

At least the Seahawks and Saints have room to build around those average QBs. Guys like Murray and Watson have made their teams irrelevant, and Lamar will join them eventually.

QB contracts have become laughable, and will make many teams irrelevant going forward when they overpay for someone who thinks they're a star.

I think its too early to say declare Watson a mistake. He’s only played 4 or 5 games.

Thing that trips me out though is thinking paying certain QB’s X amount of dollars is the reason a team screwed up their chances of winning.

Every year we see teams rise and fall because the NFL is designed this way intentionally. One year its a good contract, next year its the reason they will never win again.

Teams aren’t going to walk away from a known quantity for a rookie if they aren’t in the top 10. They are going to pay someone regardless and money never guarantees success or failure.

[feltdizz]

Lamar Jackson's price is just going up. Love the spot the Ravens are in and how they may get screwed

They have until 4PM to get a deal done. Exclusive tag and Lamar will get “hurt”again after starting 8-3..

nonexclusice tag and let teams like ATL and Carolina take a swing at him? They can match the offer and keep him but ionno, I think if I’m Lamar and my team keeps saying they want me but won’t bend then clearly they don’t value me and I’m out.

[crushedspirit]

I think its too early to say declare Watson a mistake. He’s only played 4 or 5 games.

Thing that trips me out though is thinking paying certain QB’s X amount of dollars is the reason a team screwed up their chances of winning.

Every year we see teams rise and fall because the NFL is designed this way intentionally. One year its a good contract, next year its the reason they will never win again.

Teams aren’t going to walk away from a known quantity for a rookie if they aren’t in the top 10. They are going to pay someone regardless and money never guarantees success or failure.

When a team reaches that 15% or higher QB cap hit, it gets harder to retain FAs and/or bring in new FAs. There's a reason why Mahomes is the only one in the past decade that won despite a big cap hit at that position. It's not a winning formula unless the guy can carry a team.

[whatever]

They have until 4PM to get a deal done. Exclusive tag and Lamar will get “hurt”again after starting 8-3..

nonexclusice tag and let teams like ATL and Carolina take a swing at him? They can match the offer and keep him but ionno, I think if I’m Lamar and my team keeps saying they want me but won’t bend then clearly they don’t value me and I’m out.

Why should the team cave in to his demands when his production continues to decline and he gets hurt every year?

[crushedspirit]

Why should the team cave in to his demands when his production continues to decline and he gets hurt every year?

At this point I would drop the non-exclusive and let him deal with other teams, then match it or take the 2 first rounders.

[Northern_Blitz]

This is the market. That isn’t “a lot” of money for average QB’s when you look at what the top QB’s make.

if Kenny isn’t a “top end guy” and gets $38M/$40M per that will probably be the market because top end guys will be getting $60M per in 3 years.

TLDR: I think you're making the wrong comparison looking at average QB vs elite QB at market level. I think you should compare the price of average QB to the price of a rookie who might be average to above average.

But given the price of average QBs and the price of QBs on rookie deals, I think it's silly to pay market value for a QB that isn't easily in the top 10. And honestly, if you're paying the 10th best QB in the league market value, that's probably too much too. You probably want a guy who is at least in the conversation as a top 5 guy in the league IMO.

Otherwise, I think you're probably better off going back to the draft.

My guess is that the difference in cap hit from about the 10 best QB in the league (certainly the 15th best) isn't worth the difference in play you'll get vs. signing a guy like Mitch to come in and drafting the next guy cheap.

I think the road to cap hell is paved by giving guys that are average very big cap hits. Pay a lot for elite guys. And let average guys walk. Especially at QB where the premium is so high.

But it's not good for season ticket sales, so teams are afraid to do something like this. And I think it artificially inflates the middle of the "starting" QB market.

I know you don't want to hear it (and it's far to early to argue about whether he'll be in this boat or not), but if you have a top 10-15 QB at the end of their rookie deal, I don't think you should sign them. Even really good QBs like Russell Wilson didn't really do much when they hit their second contracts. I don't think guys who are middle of the pack (of starters) are worth second contracts at all.

It sucks, because they might be something like the 25th best QB in the world. But the drop off in talent is so steep from about 8th or so that it's not worth paying them what the market will bear IMO.

Maybe that changes if teams start making smarter decision around these middling starters. But I don't think it will happen soon.

[feltdizz]

TLDR: I think you're making the wrong comparison looking at average QB vs elite QB at market level. I think you should compare the price of average QB to the price of a rookie who might be average to above average.

But given the price of average QBs and the price of QBs on rookie deals, I think it's silly to pay market value for a QB that isn't easily in the top 10. And honestly, if you're paying the 10th best QB in the league market value, that's probably too much too. You probably want a guy who is at least in the conversation as a top 5 guy in the league IMO.

Otherwise, I think you're probably better off going back to the draft.

My guess is that the difference in cap hit from about the 10 best QB in the league (certainly the 15th best) isn't worth the difference in play you'll get vs. signing a guy like Mitch to come in and drafting the next guy cheap.

I think the road to cap hell is paved by giving guys that are average very big cap hits. Pay a lot for elite guys. And let average guys walk. Especially at QB where the premium is so high.

But it's not good for season ticket sales, so teams are afraid to do something like this. And I think it artificially inflates the middle of the "starting" QB market.

I know you don't want to hear it (and it's far to early to argue about whether he'll be in this boat or not), but if you have a top 10-15 QB at the end of their rookie deal, I don't think you should sign them. Even really good QBs like Russell Wilson didn't really do much when they hit their second contracts. I don't think guys who are middle of the pack (of starters) are worth second contracts at all.

It sucks, because they might be something like the 25th best QB in the world. But the drop off in talent is so steep from about 8th or so that it's not worth paying them what the market will bear IMO.

Maybe that changes if teams start making smarter decision around these middling starters. But I don't think it will happen soon.

Well I’m using “what is” vs what “should be” when it comes to comps. Unless you are drafting in the top 10 what are the chances that rookie QB will be a better option than an average vet if you are trying to remain competitive? More than likely you will use that first round pick on BPA.

The reality is the NFL believes a Geno/Cousins/Carr is a better option than a rookie QB in the second or 3rd round. More times than not this is correct too.