Chiefs, Mahommes SB era done. Your salary cap advantage just ended.

[feltdizz]

Another case is Jordan Love. He's his 'rookie' season will be his 3rd since he was drafted. He's gonna have to ball out this season and next for GB to consider his 5th yr option.

which is probably why GB is moving on from AR. They need to know.. lol.

GB has no one to blame but themselves but it worked out for them last time, might work out again.

[NorthCoast]

Herbert will be an interesting test case.

It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).

Another case is Jordan Love. He's his 'rookie' season will be his 3rd since he was drafted. He's gonna have to ball out this season and next for GB to consider his 5th yr option.

[feltdizz]

A top-10 QB who wouldn't last a day on the open market. Can't let guys like that walk away unless you get an irresistible draft haul in return.

I’m sure the Saints would looooove to work something out with the Chargers.

It worked so well for the Chargers the last time they did it.

[crushedspirit]

Herbert will be an interesting test case.

It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).

A top-10 QB who wouldn't last a day on the open market. Can't let guys like that walk away unless you get an irresistible draft haul in return.

[feltdizz]

Herbert will be an interesting test case.

It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).

No way do they move on from Herbert. He’s just getting started. Herbert may be another Matt Stafford/Phillip Rivers.

All the tools but needs a lot more than his arm to have team success.

If they moved on they would get a ton of picks but another team would scoop him up like a baseball.

I think the way players are moving around these days the mantra of winning on a rookie contract will fade. Its all about putting together the right combo of players. Rams just showed what can happen if you throw a bunch of money at players for a chance at a SB.

Josh Allen is another case study. We watched him lose with like 15 seconds left and it wasn’t his fault. But will the Bills get over the hump him? Probably not.. but what do you do? Move on and risk another 10 years before finding a QB? Its not easy finding good QB’s in the draft.

[Northern_Blitz]

Umm.. Burrow and Herbert are going to get some serious money soon.

I don’t think teams are less inclined, we just had a ton of old HOFers retire recently.

Herbert will be an interesting test case.

It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).

[NorthCoast]

Thanks NC.

Interesting that it came down this year.

My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?

2020 had 9 QBs sign contracts above 10% of the cap. That is the most in 5 years. It's seems the Mahomes deal got things started along the path. The only other big signing that might happen this year is LJ. But that is still only 5 QBs above 10% of the cap.

[feltdizz]

Thanks NC.

Interesting that it came down this year.

My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?

Umm.. Burrow and Herbert are going to get some serious money soon.

I don’t think teams are less inclined, we just had a ton of old HOFers retire recently.

[Northern_Blitz]

Top 10 QB contracts at time of signing as % of Cap;




[url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH]capture1[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

Thanks NC.

Interesting that it came down this year.

My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?

[NorthCoast]

Top 10 QB contracts at time of signing as % of Cap;




[url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH]capture1[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

[feltdizz]

I don't think it's a bad investment, it just doesn't expose you the biggest theoretical return. It's the index fund guy vs the individual stock picker. Index fund guy is trying to get relatively predictable returns and limit their downside. Same deal with the GM who signs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Dak, etc. to a giant deal. The individual stock picker exposes themselves to a tremendous amount of risk but opens up the door to a tremendous amount of opportunity. This is the rookie QB contract churning argument.

It's easy for me to say churn QBs because it's not my employment on the line lol. I do think it's an interesting concept in theory.

if this was Daniel Jones 3rd trip to the playoffs then sure, churn QB’s.

This is their first playoff win in 11 years. You can’t churn when you have a 1st year head coach who guides Jones to the playoffs. Especially if you watched the Giants and saw how inept the WR’s were last year.

I’m not a Jones fan but even I have to admit he is worth that contract given where they are in 2023.

Even if it doesn’t work out at least they tried. I think that’s what most Giant fans will say.

[hackjam]

I think part of the problem is the “sniffing a ring” argument folks have against paying a QB or a a player.

If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.

I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.

I don't think it's a bad investment, it just doesn't expose you the biggest theoretical return. It's the index fund guy vs the individual stock picker. Index fund guy is trying to get relatively predictable returns and limit their downside. Same deal with the GM who signs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Dak, etc. to a giant deal. The individual stock picker exposes themselves to a tremendous amount of risk but opens up the door to a tremendous amount of opportunity. This is the rookie QB contract churning argument.

It's easy for me to say churn QBs because it's not my employment on the line lol. I do think it's an interesting concept in theory.

[crushedspirit]

Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.

Jones had the Giants right where he wanted even though Daboll is the biggest reason for his play last season. It would have been relatively easy for the fanbase to accept the Giants walking away after many pitiful seasons, but he forced their hand to overpay for him or watch the fanbase implode after reaching the playoffs. At least if he turns out to be a 1 yr wonder, they have an out after 2024. He does need some better weapons though, and adding Waller was a great start. I don't see him taking them far at all, but that's another story.

[feltdizz]

Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.

I think part of the problem is the “sniffing a ring” argument folks have against paying a QB or a a player.

If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.

I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.

[whisper]

And it makes sense to me to pay elite QBs. If you have Mahomes, you make damn sure that he's on your team for all of his prime years (at least).

But too many teams pay average guys (at least close to) elite money IMO.

Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.