Chiefs, Mahommes SB era done. Your salary cap advantage just ended.

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  • hackjam
    Starter
    • Sep 2021
    • 866

    Originally posted by feltdizz
    I think part of the problem is the “sniffing a ring” argument folks have against paying a QB or a a player.

    If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.

    I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.
    I don't think it's a bad investment, it just doesn't expose you the biggest theoretical return. It's the index fund guy vs the individual stock picker. Index fund guy is trying to get relatively predictable returns and limit their downside. Same deal with the GM who signs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Dak, etc. to a giant deal. The individual stock picker exposes themselves to a tremendous amount of risk but opens up the door to a tremendous amount of opportunity. This is the rookie QB contract churning argument.

    It's easy for me to say churn QBs because it's not my employment on the line lol. I do think it's an interesting concept in theory.

    Comment

    • feltdizz
      Legend
      • May 2008
      • 26991

      Originally posted by hackjam
      I don't think it's a bad investment, it just doesn't expose you the biggest theoretical return. It's the index fund guy vs the individual stock picker. Index fund guy is trying to get relatively predictable returns and limit their downside. Same deal with the GM who signs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Dak, etc. to a giant deal. The individual stock picker exposes themselves to a tremendous amount of risk but opens up the door to a tremendous amount of opportunity. This is the rookie QB contract churning argument.

      It's easy for me to say churn QBs because it's not my employment on the line lol. I do think it's an interesting concept in theory.
      if this was Daniel Jones 3rd trip to the playoffs then sure, churn QB’s.

      This is their first playoff win in 11 years. You can’t churn when you have a 1st year head coach who guides Jones to the playoffs. Especially if you watched the Giants and saw how inept the WR’s were last year.

      I’m not a Jones fan but even I have to admit he is worth that contract given where they are in 2023.

      Even if it doesn’t work out at least they tried. I think that’s what most Giant fans will say.
      Steelers 27
      Rats 16

      Comment

      • NorthCoast
        Legend
        • Sep 2008
        • 25610

        Top 10 QB contracts at time of signing as % of Cap;




        [url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH]capture1[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr


        Comment

        • Northern_Blitz
          Legend
          • Dec 2008
          • 23534

          Originally posted by NorthCoast
          Top 10 QB contracts at time of signing as % of Cap;




          [url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2ooouxH]capture1[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr


          Thanks NC.

          Interesting that it came down this year.

          My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

          But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

          It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

          I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?

          Comment

          • feltdizz
            Legend
            • May 2008
            • 26991

            Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
            Thanks NC.

            Interesting that it came down this year.

            My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

            But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

            It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

            I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?
            Umm.. Burrow and Herbert are going to get some serious money soon.

            I don’t think teams are less inclined, we just had a ton of old HOFers retire recently.
            Steelers 27
            Rats 16

            Comment

            • NorthCoast
              Legend
              • Sep 2008
              • 25610

              Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
              Thanks NC.

              Interesting that it came down this year.

              My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

              But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

              It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

              I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?
              2020 had 9 QBs sign contracts above 10% of the cap. That is the most in 5 years. It's seems the Mahomes deal got things started along the path. The only other big signing that might happen this year is LJ. But that is still only 5 QBs above 10% of the cap.

              Comment

              • Northern_Blitz
                Legend
                • Dec 2008
                • 23534

                Originally posted by feltdizz
                Umm.. Burrow and Herbert are going to get some serious money soon.

                I don’t think teams are less inclined, we just had a ton of old HOFers retire recently.
                Herbert will be an interesting test case.

                It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

                Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

                But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).

                Comment

                • feltdizz
                  Legend
                  • May 2008
                  • 26991

                  Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                  Herbert will be an interesting test case.

                  It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

                  Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

                  But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).
                  No way do they move on from Herbert. He’s just getting started. Herbert may be another Matt Stafford/Phillip Rivers.

                  All the tools but needs a lot more than his arm to have team success.

                  If they moved on they would get a ton of picks but another team would scoop him up like a baseball.

                  I think the way players are moving around these days the mantra of winning on a rookie contract will fade. Its all about putting together the right combo of players. Rams just showed what can happen if you throw a bunch of money at players for a chance at a SB.

                  Josh Allen is another case study. We watched him lose with like 15 seconds left and it wasn’t his fault. But will the Bills get over the hump him? Probably not.. but what do you do? Move on and risk another 10 years before finding a QB? Its not easy finding good QB’s in the draft.
                  Last edited by feltdizz; 03-22-2023, 09:52 AM.
                  Steelers 27
                  Rats 16

                  Comment

                  • crushedspirit
                    Pro Bowler
                    • Feb 2021
                    • 2178

                    Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                    Herbert will be an interesting test case.

                    It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

                    Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

                    But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).
                    A top-10 QB who wouldn't last a day on the open market. Can't let guys like that walk away unless you get an irresistible draft haul in return.

                    Comment

                    • feltdizz
                      Legend
                      • May 2008
                      • 26991

                      Originally posted by crushedspirit
                      A top-10 QB who wouldn't last a day on the open market. Can't let guys like that walk away unless you get an irresistible draft haul in return.
                      I’m sure the Saints would looooove to work something out with the Chargers.

                      It worked so well for the Chargers the last time they did it.
                      Steelers 27
                      Rats 16

                      Comment

                      • NorthCoast
                        Legend
                        • Sep 2008
                        • 25610

                        Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                        Herbert will be an interesting test case.

                        It's unlikely that they will have any significant team success while he was super-cheap. I think it's really unlikely for teams to get more successful when they pay the QB at the top of the market.

                        Might be a good example of a guy to move on from? Not necessarily because of the player. But because the team squandered the opportunity with what looks like a good QB?

                        But it will be hard because he looks like he can play the position (but is outclassed in a division that has the guy who is currently the best in the league).
                        Another case is Jordan Love. He's his 'rookie' season will be his 3rd since he was drafted. He's gonna have to ball out this season and next for GB to consider his 5th yr option.

                        Comment

                        • feltdizz
                          Legend
                          • May 2008
                          • 26991

                          Originally posted by NorthCoast
                          Another case is Jordan Love. He's his 'rookie' season will be his 3rd since he was drafted. He's gonna have to ball out this season and next for GB to consider his 5th yr option.
                          which is probably why GB is moving on from AR. They need to know.. lol.

                          GB has no one to blame but themselves but it worked out for them last time, might work out again.
                          Steelers 27
                          Rats 16

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