Chiefs, Mahommes SB era done. Your salary cap advantage just ended.

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  • Northern_Blitz
    Legend
    • Dec 2008
    • 23529

    Originally posted by Captain Lemming
    I actually BELIEVE wholeheartedly in this point. It is why the expectation of a 70s dynasty just because you have the 5th or 6th best QB among his peers is a flawed expectation.
    This is the correct answer IMO.

    UFA and the cap mean that it's a significantly different league now than it was then. Roster construction back then was just "draft well". And we did that better than anyone else in the 70s. So we were dominant.

    Comment

    • BURGH86STEEL
      Legend
      • May 2008
      • 6908

      I wrote that there are many ways (philosophies) to win games and a championship. Ultimately, games boil down to player execution regardless of philosophy. I can go rehash my stance on this but I don't believe some value my opinion. It's not good for discussion.

      Some fans want to believe that teams simply need this or that to win a championship.

      My opinion is that in today's NFL things change based on a variety of factors. Parity....... combined with player availability, salary cap implications, luck, local business/franchise decisions, ect.

      For example, if the Steelers became perennial losers, then what could happen to the Steelers?

      I think that fans need to realize that the NFL and sports in general are a business. Steelers leave the Burgh, football will be..........IDK for me? Past time where I no longer care to watch the games. Fans can discuss the rest at this point.

      Comment

      • hackjam
        Starter
        • Sep 2021
        • 866

        Originally posted by WindyCitySteel
        Which teams with first contract QBs have won recent Super Bowls? Chiefs '18, Eagles '17, Seahawks '13? 3 in 10 years?
        Flacco was 11 years ago so I'm going to include him but he and Matt Ryan kind of set the course for the giant 2nd QB contracts. Of course Brady won 4 during that time frame so like everything else since the turn of the century, he skews the discussion. So as far as winners go you have 4 rooks, 4 by the GOAT, and 3 others over the last 11 years. Now, to be fair, the last 3 winners have not been on rookie contracts so maybe the tides are changing.

        As far as making Super Bowls goes, 2016 and 2017 are the only ones in that time frame that haven't featured a QB on a rookie contract.

        2012 - Flacco (Winner), Kaepernick (though Alex Smith was on the roster w/ a $9.25MM cap hit)
        2013 - Wilson (Winner)
        2014 - Wilson (Loser)
        2015 - None
        2016 - None
        2017 - Wentz (+ Foles, so idk if you want to count this one but in any case...)
        2018 - Goff
        2019 - Mahomes
        2020 - Mahomes
        2021 - Burrow
        2022 - Hurts

        It's indisputable fact that you have less capital to build the roster when the QB is getting paid, but at this point, the cap may be rising at a rate where it doesn't matter as much.

        Comment

        • hackjam
          Starter
          • Sep 2021
          • 866

          Originally posted by Steel Maniac
          And that's my whole point........their buisness model isn't working in today's NFL. We need to update our business model to work in today's NFL. Ours isn't working anymore. Mainly because our scouting dept. isn't hitting on prospects like it used to.
          Well, first of all I think they are. There has been (at least what seems like) more significant FA activity over the past two years than there has been since the early part of Colbert's tenure.

          Second, the model itself and the execution within that model are different things. If you're going to be dogmatic about building through the draft, the drafts better be good. They simply haven't been good enough lately. We're seeing a reaction to that through a greater focus on FA (which is now possible because they're not paying 3rd contract money to a top 5-8 QB). I think their general philosophy is similar to what it has been BUT they're raising the talent floor with FA whereas in the late 90s and early 00s, they had a lot of luck doing that in the later rounds of the draft. Generally speaking, I think of it as maintaining or making marginal improvements in FA

          Of course, the most successful component to building a team has been something like 'have a top 3-ish QB' going back to, oh, I don't know, Otto Graham.

          Comment

          • hackjam
            Starter
            • Sep 2021
            • 866

            Originally posted by NJ-STEELER
            to me, spending 2nd and 3rd rounder on WRs isn't exactly setting up your biggest asset.

            just look at our history at left tackle. probably the 2nd more position on offense.
            beachum 7th rounder
            villa - street free agent/former WR

            can you honestly try and tell me they've addressed that position like other teams with their franchise QBs did?
            brady, rodgers, etc
            I mean the Pats invested idk maybe slightly more premium draft capitol at on their OL compared to Steelers did over the course of Brady's time in NE. Granted, they were arguably more successful with it but it's not some giant gap.

            Pats 1st: Mankins, Solder, Wynn
            Pats 2nd: Klemm, Light, Vollmer

            Steelers 1st: Simmons, Pouncey, DeCastro
            Steelers 2nd: Smith, Gilbert, Adams

            Comment

            • Northern_Blitz
              Legend
              • Dec 2008
              • 23529

              Originally posted by hackjam
              Flacco was 11 years ago so I'm going to include him but he and Matt Ryan kind of set the course for the giant 2nd QB contracts. Of course Brady won 4 during that time frame so like everything else since the turn of the century, he skews the discussion. So as far as winners go you have 4 rooks, 4 by the GOAT, and 3 others over the last 11 years. Now, to be fair, the last 3 winners have not been on rookie contracts so maybe the tides are changing.

              As far as making Super Bowls goes, 2016 and 2017 are the only ones in that time frame that haven't featured a QB on a rookie contract.

              2012 - Flacco (Winner), Kaepernick (though Alex Smith was on the roster w/ a $9.25MM cap hit)
              2013 - Wilson (Winner)
              2014 - Wilson (Loser)
              2015 - None
              2016 - None
              2017 - Wentz (+ Foles, so idk if you want to count this one but in any case...)
              2018 - Goff
              2019 - Mahomes
              2020 - Mahomes
              2021 - Burrow
              2022 - Hurts

              It's indisputable fact that you have less capital to build the roster when the QB is getting paid, but at this point, the cap may be rising at a rate where it doesn't matter as much.
              It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.

              My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).

              And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.

              But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.

              Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.

              Comment

              • hackjam
                Starter
                • Sep 2021
                • 866

                Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.

                My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).

                And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.

                But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.

                Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.
                At some point the market will correct. The cap decrease post Covid threw an interesting wrench in there as well.

                Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.

                Comment

                • NorthCoast
                  Legend
                  • Sep 2008
                  • 25606

                  Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                  It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.

                  My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).

                  And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.

                  But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.

                  Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.
                  It still comes down to supply and demand. If enough college QBs come out more ready to play then average QB pay should at least stabilize. But the elite QBs will always lead the market.

                  Comment

                  • feltdizz
                    Legend
                    • May 2008
                    • 26990

                    Originally posted by hackjam
                    At some point the market will correct. The cap decrease post Covid threw an interesting wrench in there as well.

                    Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.
                    NFLPA voted to cap the rookie payscale structure so proven players would get more money on their first contract. This is partially why QB’s first contracts are insane now.

                    While this sucked for Cam Newton its actually a good idea. We had teams being forced to give QB’s ridiculous rookie contracts before proving their worth.
                    Steelers 27
                    Rats 16

                    Comment

                    • feltdizz
                      Legend
                      • May 2008
                      • 26990

                      Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                      It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.

                      My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).

                      And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.

                      But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.

                      Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.
                      I think its a bad idea to churn rookie QB’s if you have a Cousin’s are Carr. While these guys aren’t world beaters the crap
                      shoot of the draft makes it risky biz to start
                      over. Remember, most QB’s fail.. so if you find one who can get you 9 to 10 wins or maybe even have a 12 win season mixed in there its probably worth it compared to saving those coins and probably missing on a QB and ending up like the Browns or Washington.

                      Its still a business and if you are starting over every 4 to 5 years the fans will lose interest if you don’t hit on a QB.

                      Daniel Jones comes to mind. They finally won a playoff game and you would lean towards the draft vs sticking with him for 2 years? Giant fans would lose their minds if they made that gamble.
                      Steelers 27
                      Rats 16

                      Comment

                      • Northern_Blitz
                        Legend
                        • Dec 2008
                        • 23529

                        Originally posted by hackjam
                        At some point the market will correct. The cap decrease post Covid threw an interesting wrench in there as well.

                        Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.
                        This is a good point Hackjam. I also don't know the answer. I think I'd assume it inflates with the cap, but I don't know. My understanding is that QB contracts are generally inflating faster than the cap (or have in the past). So I'd guess the gap is getting wider. But I don't know.

                        Comment

                        • Northern_Blitz
                          Legend
                          • Dec 2008
                          • 23529

                          Originally posted by NorthCoast
                          It still comes down to supply and demand. If enough college QBs come out more ready to play then average QB pay should at least stabilize. But the elite QBs will always lead the market.
                          And it makes sense to me to pay elite QBs. If you have Mahomes, you make damn sure that he's on your team for all of his prime years (at least).

                          But too many teams pay average guys (at least close to) elite money IMO.

                          Comment

                          • whisper
                            Legend
                            • Mar 2020
                            • 9423

                            Originally posted by Northern_Blitz
                            And it makes sense to me to pay elite QBs. If you have Mahomes, you make damn sure that he's on your team for all of his prime years (at least).

                            But too many teams pay average guys (at least close to) elite money IMO.
                            Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.

                            Comment

                            • feltdizz
                              Legend
                              • May 2008
                              • 26990

                              Originally posted by whisper
                              Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.
                              I think part of the problem is the “sniffing a ring” argument folks have against paying a QB or a a player.

                              If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.

                              I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.
                              Steelers 27
                              Rats 16

                              Comment

                              • crushedspirit
                                Pro Bowler
                                • Feb 2021
                                • 2178

                                Originally posted by whisper
                                Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.
                                Jones had the Giants right where he wanted even though Daboll is the biggest reason for his play last season. It would have been relatively easy for the fanbase to accept the Giants walking away after many pitiful seasons, but he forced their hand to overpay for him or watch the fanbase implode after reaching the playoffs. At least if he turns out to be a 1 yr wonder, they have an out after 2024. He does need some better weapons though, and adding Waller was a great start. I don't see him taking them far at all, but that's another story.

                                Comment

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