Chiefs, Mahommes SB era done. Your salary cap advantage just ended.
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I wrote that there are many ways (philosophies) to win games and a championship. Ultimately, games boil down to player execution regardless of philosophy. I can go rehash my stance on this but I don't believe some value my opinion. It's not good for discussion.
Some fans want to believe that teams simply need this or that to win a championship.
My opinion is that in today's NFL things change based on a variety of factors. Parity....... combined with player availability, salary cap implications, luck, local business/franchise decisions, ect.
For example, if the Steelers became perennial losers, then what could happen to the Steelers?
I think that fans need to realize that the NFL and sports in general are a business. Steelers leave the Burgh, football will be..........IDK for me? Past time where I no longer care to watch the games. Fans can discuss the rest at this point.Comment
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As far as making Super Bowls goes, 2016 and 2017 are the only ones in that time frame that haven't featured a QB on a rookie contract.
2012 - Flacco (Winner), Kaepernick (though Alex Smith was on the roster w/ a $9.25MM cap hit)
2013 - Wilson (Winner)
2014 - Wilson (Loser)
2015 - None
2016 - None
2017 - Wentz (+ Foles, so idk if you want to count this one but in any case...)
2018 - Goff
2019 - Mahomes
2020 - Mahomes
2021 - Burrow
2022 - Hurts
It's indisputable fact that you have less capital to build the roster when the QB is getting paid, but at this point, the cap may be rising at a rate where it doesn't matter as much.Comment
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Second, the model itself and the execution within that model are different things. If you're going to be dogmatic about building through the draft, the drafts better be good. They simply haven't been good enough lately. We're seeing a reaction to that through a greater focus on FA (which is now possible because they're not paying 3rd contract money to a top 5-8 QB). I think their general philosophy is similar to what it has been BUT they're raising the talent floor with FA whereas in the late 90s and early 00s, they had a lot of luck doing that in the later rounds of the draft. Generally speaking, I think of it as maintaining or making marginal improvements in FA
Of course, the most successful component to building a team has been something like 'have a top 3-ish QB' going back to, oh, I don't know, Otto Graham.Comment
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to me, spending 2nd and 3rd rounder on WRs isn't exactly setting up your biggest asset.
just look at our history at left tackle. probably the 2nd more position on offense.
beachum 7th rounder
villa - street free agent/former WR
can you honestly try and tell me they've addressed that position like other teams with their franchise QBs did?
brady, rodgers, etc
Pats 1st: Mankins, Solder, Wynn
Pats 2nd: Klemm, Light, Vollmer
Steelers 1st: Simmons, Pouncey, DeCastro
Steelers 2nd: Smith, Gilbert, AdamsComment
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Flacco was 11 years ago so I'm going to include him but he and Matt Ryan kind of set the course for the giant 2nd QB contracts. Of course Brady won 4 during that time frame so like everything else since the turn of the century, he skews the discussion. So as far as winners go you have 4 rooks, 4 by the GOAT, and 3 others over the last 11 years. Now, to be fair, the last 3 winners have not been on rookie contracts so maybe the tides are changing.
As far as making Super Bowls goes, 2016 and 2017 are the only ones in that time frame that haven't featured a QB on a rookie contract.
2012 - Flacco (Winner), Kaepernick (though Alex Smith was on the roster w/ a $9.25MM cap hit)
2013 - Wilson (Winner)
2014 - Wilson (Loser)
2015 - None
2016 - None
2017 - Wentz (+ Foles, so idk if you want to count this one but in any case...)
2018 - Goff
2019 - Mahomes
2020 - Mahomes
2021 - Burrow
2022 - Hurts
It's indisputable fact that you have less capital to build the roster when the QB is getting paid, but at this point, the cap may be rising at a rate where it doesn't matter as much.
My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).
And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.
But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.
Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.Comment
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It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.
My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).
And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.
But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.
Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.
Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.Comment
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It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.
My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).
And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.
But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.
Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.Comment
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At some point the market will correct. The cap decrease post Covid threw an interesting wrench in there as well.
Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.
While this sucked for Cam Newton its actually a good idea. We had teams being forced to give QB’s ridiculous rookie contracts before proving their worth.Steelers 27
Rats 16Comment
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It will be interesting to see what happens as the cap rises.
My guess is that high end QBs will continue to get a higher %age of the available cap (so QB cap hits will accelerate faster than the cap accelerates).
And that teams will continue to pay average QBs as if they were elite.
But I think eventually, these trends should reverse. Particularly the 2nd one. At some point, teams should decide to churn rookie deal QBs rather than pay market level contracts to guys that didn't lead them to much team success when they were cheap.
Hopefully we don't have this problem with KP because he leads us to a SB.
shoot of the draft makes it risky biz to start
over. Remember, most QB’s fail.. so if you find one who can get you 9 to 10 wins or maybe even have a 12 win season mixed in there its probably worth it compared to saving those coins and probably missing on a QB and ending up like the Browns or Washington.
Its still a business and if you are starting over every 4 to 5 years the fans will lose interest if you don’t hit on a QB.
Daniel Jones comes to mind. They finally won a playoff game and you would lean towards the draft vs sticking with him for 2 years? Giant fans would lose their minds if they made that gamble.Steelers 27
Rats 16Comment
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At some point the market will correct. The cap decrease post Covid threw an interesting wrench in there as well.
Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.Comment
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But too many teams pay average guys (at least close to) elite money IMO.Comment
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Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.Comment
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If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.
I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.Steelers 27
Rats 16Comment
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Jones had the Giants right where he wanted even though Daboll is the biggest reason for his play last season. It would have been relatively easy for the fanbase to accept the Giants walking away after many pitiful seasons, but he forced their hand to overpay for him or watch the fanbase implode after reaching the playoffs. At least if he turns out to be a 1 yr wonder, they have an out after 2024. He does need some better weapons though, and adding Waller was a great start. I don't see him taking them far at all, but that's another story.Comment
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